The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - July 14, 2012 - YTD: 220-210-21

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 220-210-21, -$1,432 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Alright, nice 2-0-1 start to the second half, but a bit disappointing considering I SHOULD have been 4-0. You’re probably thinking, “Well, you bet three games, didn’t you?” Well, not necessarily, as I stated in yesterday’s article how my best bet was going to be that beautiful Lyles vs Bumgarner under 7 matchup (Due to Bumgarner’s nearly flawless dominance at home and Lyles' inevitable emergence), which Vegas underrated a bit, but unfortunately, the Astros made a last-second pitching change, and thus, the line was switched to 6.5 with Wandy Rodriguez on the hill, which I didn’t want to take a chance on, since there’s such little precedent (A key factor in all types of betting) for a guy who was given such a late assignment only hours before gametime. Thus, I was screwed out of a $70 or $80 best bet victory. And then there was my one “push” that also should have been a win in Fister vs Hammel over 9, given that Vegas was clearly anticipating a higher-scoring affair as well because of how unusually high the line was for a matchup with two pitchers of that caliber (Fister a world-class pitcher and Hammel an ace this season. Thus, they were baiting suckers into the under). The other frustrating thing was that it was 7-1 in the top of the FIFTH, and of course, with my luck, I could only get a mere one run out of the bullpens the rest of the way, despite the fact that bullpens have been historically bad in 2012 and have cost me countless unders. Very frustrating, but I guess I’ll have to settle on the solid 2-0-1 performance and use it as a building block as this second half rolls on...


**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Leading UpTo Gametime**


Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
Lucas Harrell vs Tim Lincecum
OVER 7.5 (Wait all day to see if it drops to 7. If not, will still take at 7.5)

Everyone in the country who is on this over is probably doing it solely because of Tim Lincecum, but luckily for you guys, you know that I own Lucas Harrell more than anybody - scouts and management included. I mean, I do possess a nearly perfect record with the guy, and coming into the season, as I even wrote about, I had listed Harrell as one of my top three sleepers entering the 2012 season (Along with James McDonald and Blake Beavan. Still have hope for Beavan, folks). Thus, when it comes to taking a Lucas Harrell over/under, you can’t find a better expert on him than me, and I say that with the absolute fondness for him, not cockiness. What makes this interesting is that in a rarity, I actually have a distinct “over” vibe on him, rather than the usual “under” route. Harrell has been fantastic, or at least considering his expectations, even recording his first career shutout within his past two starts in what was a best bet under of mine. However, this is more so vibe than it is based on a tendency or a statistic - I just believe Harrell won’t have his best stuff going tonight. It’s his first full season as a starter (Yes, despite his once high regard as a top prospect with the White Sox all those years ago), and I think the variable of having an extended all-star break will affect him considerably (He hasn’t pitched in 11 days). What’s made him such an interesting commodity is his recent consistently solid efforts into becoming a relevant pitcher, but with that much time off, you lose your sense of urgency. It’s not his fault - it’s just human nature, which very few can pitch out of. Also throw in the fact that Harrell has been much worse on the road (6.59 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .293 BAA) compared to at home (1.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .222 BAA), and it makes it that much more likely he struggles at least a little bit tonight.

Then, of course, there is the enigma known as Tim Lincecum, arguably the most controversial and talked-about pitcher in all of baseball in 2012. I’ll be one of the first ones to admit it: I never understood the high craze for Lincecum. I mean, I might be a little biased, considering I’ve never had a good record with him in over/unders (2-4-1 last year), but even so, I think I finally have a good beat on him. First off, I usually go with the assumption that when a formerly excellent pitcher is struggling mightily, I’ll back them until they turn it around, which is usually inevitable. But with Lincecum, these struggles have been so significant and extensive that it’s hard to figure out if or when he’ll turn it around. He’s shown signs of it, such as shutting out the Dodgers over seven innings in one of his last few starts, but that was in late June, and since then, he’s only lasted a combined 6.2 IP over two starts, allowing 16 hits and 13 earned runs. Yikes. The main thing Lincecum still has going for him this year is his high strikeout rate (104 Ks in 96 IP), but in those last couple of outings, he only punched out five, and if he’s losing that ability - the one good talent he has left - then he’s in for a world of trouble. Yes, this is the Astros offense he is facing tonight, and at home where he’s historically been better, but as I’ve been saying all year, Houston really isn’t as bad as they look on paper, even without El Caballo (They beat Kershaw in LA). Perhaps most importantly, the wind will be blowing out in San Francisco tonight, and with Lincecum’s notably soaring fly-ball percentage in 2012, if one or two of those long deep shots gets enough carry, it can spell an awful outing for The Freak. I don’t necessarily believe both pitchers will be horrible, but with a line this low (Especially if it hits 7), and my most likely outcome being 7-2 (Although 5-2 is very, very possible), that puts us people backing the over in a nice position of securing the victory.


ChicagoWhite Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Jake Peavy vs Luke Hochevar
UNDER 8.5

Hmm, Vegas is giving us an extra half run in a matchup in a spacious park like Kaufman Stadium between an ace and aguy who has always had ace potential. Let me start with the latter, that of course being Luke Hochevar, who will undoubtedly be the toughest factor in nailing this under. However, based on his recent pitching display, it appears Hochevar is finally settling in in 2012, which comes as no surprise to me. I’ve always liked Hochevar and always believed he could come close to his once-enormous potential. He’s someone I’ve tracked for awhile extensively (6-1 on his over/unders last year, too), so it baffled me to see him struggle the way he has for most of this campaign. Luckily, he has turned it around, going on a rampage that has seen him give up two runs or less in three of his past four starts, two of which that saw him yield absolutely nothing to the opposing batting order. As a result, Hochevar’s ERA has dipped into the low 5’s, which is acceptable for him at this point in time, considering it was over 7 in late-May. What makes this even more enticing is that Hochevar actually shut down these same White Sox on the road earlier this year, when he blanked them over 7 three-hit innings on May 12, and while I don’t think he can duplicate that same exact effort, it shouldn’t be out-of-this-world to believe that he can come close to contributing a similar outing, given his recent string of excellent pitching. His stats have neared normalcy, which should allow him to pitch like his normal self from here on out on a more consistent basis, continuing with tonight’s home assignment.

While some may back away from this under because of Hochevar, at least we have Jake Peavy, who has been one of the absolute sure things in Major League Baseball this year (Hopefully I didn't just jinx that). After all, you don’t go 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP (!), and 108 Ks in 120 IP because of luck. It’s obviously because Peavy is a really, really good pitcher, a sentiment that has been expressed and proven for years now, and with good reason. Peavy has been mostly consistent throughout his successful big-league career, and that’s been the exact case in 2012. In fact, in 14 out of his 17 starts this season, Peavy has surrendered three runs or less. That’s incredible if you truly break it down, considering that means more than 82% of the time, Peavy is virtually pumping out a quality start. 82%! With those odds, and approaching a matchup against an offense that doesn’t exactly light the world on fire (Probably just jinxed myself again), you have to like the chances of Peavy continuing his roll. I mean, there is of course the chance that streak is interrupted by the all-star break, but Peavy did start on July 6, so his current eight days of rest aren’t far from the usual routine of starting every fifth day. Plus, a guy like Jake Peavy is such a workhorse and a workaholic. In other words, no matter the scenario that he is thrown into, odds are he'll enter it strong, as that’s one of the main reasons why Peavy has been so durable and effective for so long. The under here looks like a nice bet.

Other 7/14 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Kevin Correia vs Marco Estrada OVER 9
Edinson Volquez vs Aaron Harang OVER 7
Clay Buchholz vs David Price OVER 7.5


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Awfully on the fence concerning that Tom Milone vs Cole De Vries matchup)
 
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Final $$ amounts for my 7 o'clock games...

Peavy vs Hochevar UNDER 8.5 - $57 for $50
Correia vs Estrada OVER 9 - $32 for $30
Buchholz vs Price OVER 7.5 - $33 for $30

Would also strongly recommend Milone vs De Vries over 8, but 5-2 is a vision I had, too. Best bet is Harrell vs Lincecumover 7.5 but still haven't finalized the amount yet
 
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Final two games...

Harrell vs Lincecum OVER 7/7.5 - $123 for $105 ($108 for $90 on O7, $15 for $15 on O7.5)
Volquez vs Harang OVER 7 - $33 for $30
 

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