Sunday: Totalmania YTD: 247-216, + 60.9 units

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Saturday: 3-5, - 2.5 units. Damn Dodgers. I'll have to remember that their bullpen can't hold a 2 run lead against the Padres, at home no less. Will be on the road the next two days so it will be hard to post much.

The only play I like for more than one unit Sunday so far is:
Colorado/ Phils- under 10 (+102). 2 units. Pomeranz and Hamels both throw hard. Fastball pitchers have better luck in Coors since the light air seems to accelerate their pitches. Off speed pitches tend to break less. Pomeranz looks like the real deal in his latest starts, even in Coors. He has not given up a HR in his last 22 IPs, and only 12 hits. The Phillies got to Guthrie in the first inning and that's about all they have done in the past week. This team whiffs too often, walks little and seems to be leading the league in useless hits or LOB. They also play poorly in day games. Hamels also has had success vs. the Rockies and fairly so in Coors. Anyways, he can shut down any team anytime if he is "on". I don't care that this game is in Coors. The fences are out there pretty deep, and there have been a number of unders with much lesser pitchers. Besides the elevation adding to the scoring, don't forget that the Rockies pitching is major league awful this year (and often in the past too).
 

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The Rockies have also not been hitting as of late. In their past 7 games, they have 71 Ks and only 19 walks, while hitting .254 (low for them). The Rockies BP though has been able to hold some late inning leads, which they'll need to do Sunday since Pomeranz might only go 5-7 IPs.
 

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SF. RL (+100). One unit. I have no idea how the Astros will score Sunday. Cain no hit them at home earlier in the season and that's when they had a real mlb lineup, and were hitting better. Now they look pathetic, and Cain is a master at home. The Giants should be able to get to Norris for at least a few runs as he is fairly mediocre on the road.
SF/ Houston. under 6.5.(+107) One unit. I am going to go out on a limb here and predict a few likely scores: 3-0, 4-0, 3-1. Okay, you all owe me a beer if one of those comes in. Norris can get in a groove and is streaky when pitching well. Just pitched a very good game vs. hot hitting Pirates. Hedge bet, maybe. Or maybe just another 2 unit play. Besides the Giants have almost zippo power.
 

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Toronto TT over 5?. One unit. I am convinced that Derek Lowe is truly heading for retirement. In his last 43 innings, 65 hits, 39 runs and a 13:19 walk:K ratio. Against the Jays he might get shelled early and often. They hit him poorly the first game of the season, but you can throw out that game. Toronto is a Jekyll and Hyde hitting team, but Lowe is the perfect guy for one of their scoring outbursts. They lead the majors in runs scored in day games and I think they're on the verge of scoring in bunches, and many overs.
 

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Cannot figure out what kind of spell the Mariners have over Darvish. He has been very sharp vs. teams that hit far better than the M's. Matt Harrison owns the Mariners though. He is one of those tough lefties that they can't seem to hit, especially at home. In his last 43 IPs vs. Seattle, only 9 runs, and a 1.87 ERA. In fact he has never had a bad outing vs. them. Now Texas faces Iwakuma, whom most Mariner fans realize was a mistake to sign out of Japan. His last couple of years there weren't that good, and was regressing. Now he seems to have marginal stuff, no out pitch and a command and HR problem. 4 HRs in his last 10.2 IPs, and 8 runs. A 6:9 BB: K ratio. The Ranger have not hit well since the 1st of July, but they have faced some excellent pitchers… Sale, Liriano, Blackley- tough lefties, and last night King Felix. Iwakuma will be a drastic change from Felix, who is very much on his game. Furthermore Iwakuma will likely only go 3-4 innings since he is not stretched out and the Mariners middle relief is not very good. The Rangers are in a slump, but still are loaded with good bats and they have been dying for a game to break out.
Texas- 1 (-130). 2 units.
Texas -1/2. first 5 IPs. This is my big play, I guess since I have 3 total units. I plan to play it on the high side of 3 units.
 

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LAA. ML. One unit. The Yankees and the Angels, in my opinion, are the 2 best teams in the majors right now. It's a shame they are playing each other. But you can see they are playing hard fought games each day and today might be another one. Nova has been money, though his stuff is likely a little less than the results. His last poor start was vs. the Angels Back on May 30. It's Weaver's remarkable run of 6 starts of only giving up 4 runs that has me liking this game. Think about the line. It's even money even though Nova has been the Yankees best starter, they're at home and they are playing great baseball. That's how much Weavers's pitching is convincing the money to play the Angels. Also, the Angels do a lot of things right. they play baseball aggressively, wait on pitches, and play solid defense. They got more than a few hitters too. On their last East Coast swing they played impressive baseball.
 

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GL today fred. Took angels total is EV money at 4.5. They got 5 earlier in yr vs yanks and nova when halos lineup was still hitting like dog poo. Think they do it again now that they are hitting?
 

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Except this could be a low scoring game, which is why I have these two 1/2 unit bets:

NYY/ Angels: under 9
Det/ Balt: under 8. Good pitching trumps good hitting most of the time. All 4 of these pitchers are capable of pitching a very low scoring game, have good command and other than the Tigers, a decent BP- though Verlander likely won't need much of it. After yesterday, I've changed my assessment of their bullpen. Valverde looks like he's been at the buffet line a bit too much.
 

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Had to bump the play as a strong Under when I saw that 5D was offering LAA under 9.5 at a bit stronger juice. Winning with 9 (2nd most common number in MLB) is big.
 

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Boston/ Tampa: over 4 first 5 innings. One unit. This is a test play that says familiar pitchers who have been pitching below their career averages will give up runs. Neither one of these pitchers seem to have that top of the rotation stuff anymore. No more big strikeout numbers, lots more nibbling. Both teams can hit well enough to make this work.
 

rza

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Had to bump the play as a strong Under when I saw that 5D was offering LAA under 9.5 at a bit stronger juice. Winning with 9 (2nd most common number in MLB) is big.

i'm not looking offend, but i really don't think anyone give a crap about any plays other than MC's. I mistakenly threw another 1/2 unit on the under because i was in a hurry and didn't recognize it wasn't his play. my fault but it could have been avoided.
 

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i'm not looking offend, but i really don't think anyone give a crap about any plays other than MC's. I mistakenly threw another 1/2 unit on the under because i was in a hurry and didn't recognize it wasn't his play. my fault but it could have been avoided.

NO offense rza but it was his play. I was just commenting for those that have 5D as an out that there may be a better line to pick up a key number if they wanted. It was meant to help. Sorry if I messed you up. Did not intend to do that.
 

rza

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NO offense rza but it was his play. I was just commenting for those that have 5D as an out that there may be a better line to pick up a key number if they wanted. It was meant to help. Sorry if I messed you up. Did not intend to do that.

no problem. no offense taken.
 

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Glad you all worked that out.

No units tonight, just a small play. STL. ML. first 5. Bailey gives up a HR every 7 innings or so going back to last year. Who can blame him in that park? The Cards just seem to be building it all up for some kind of scoring outburst. They do lots of hitting, and not enough scoring. Their power has to come back sometime. The Cards also hit righties well and have worn out Bailey career wise pretty well. Westbrook's sinker has kept the ball in the ballpark successfully for him. I like the first 5 since the Reds have the BP advantage.
 

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Great day again Fred...TY.

Texas came through like a charm although I liked your 3-1 Giant prediction better than 3-2...lol.

My account balances are swelling...and you know I like it when that happens.

See ya all tomorrow.
 

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O Fred, I think Im gonna nominate you the new Mr Rodgers, lol. 1200 views a day no matter what. ha ha.
 

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