2012 MLB O/U Record: 223-212-21, -$1,522 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
3-2 yesterday, but down for the day after losing my bigger-sized bets. I accept full responsibility in that Harrell vs Lincecum loss, which is a shame because I know Lucas Harrell better than anyone (And he wasn't at his best, took him over 100 pitches just to make it five innings); it’s just too bad I’ve never really had a grasp on the unpredictable enigma known as Tim Lincecum. However, I don’t accept full responsibility in the Hochevar vs Peavy loss, as it turned out to be yet another painful, late-inning, half-a-freaking-run over/under loss in which I easily could have won. No. 1, Jake Peavy had allowed three runs or less in 14 of his previous 17 starts - just my luck that this is one of the 18-percent of his starts where he gives up more than three. No. 2, puny shortstop ALCIDES ESCOBAR had a multi-homer game. Yes, the same Alcides Escobar that has never clocked more than four homers in a season, while playing 150 games a year. Are you kidding me? Obviously, without that fluke incident, the under hits, but sadly, I’m bit by yet another cruel and unusual bad break, although I’ve obviously had much worse happen to me in this strange 2012 season so this one barely phases me. Anyway, on to Sunday…
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (Best Bet) - $50 for $46
Johan Santana vs Ben Sheets
UNDER 8.5
When you have studied MLB Over/Unders as long as I have - and every single day for hours at a time without taking zero days off - you automatically and inevitably gain a sense of what the over/under lines for a certain pitching matchup are going to be, well before you actually see them. That said, I’m surprised by the line in this one, as I was definitely expecting the over/under for this Mets/Braves finale to be 8. After all, youhave a true model of consistency taking the hill for one side, that being the great Johan Santana, who has once again solidified himself as one of the true upper-echelon aces in all of baseball. He’s been remarkably consistent in his comeback 2012 season, registering a 6-5 record with a 3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 99 Ks in 102 innings, high-end numbers from a guy that most weren’t expecting following severe injury. In the process, Santana has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 17 starts, an impressive tendency when you break it down over an extended period of time. While Santana has had mixed results against the Braves this year, the key in predicting this certain performance is where it comes in the season - Santana hasn’t pitched since a woeful outing against the Cubs on July 6, and these eight days off, including the all-star break, have most likely allowed him to kind of refresh and reset himself as he prepares for the grueling second half that is ahead, one that will require him to continue his string of mostly excellent pitching in order to keep the Mets in playoff contention. It’s human nature: Put yourself in the mind of Johan Santana after what he’s been through. Nobody really expected you to cruise the way you have been after surgery; at the same time, it’s possible you were losing your sense of urgency after impressing everyone all year. Therefore, with an extended break like Santana just had, he’ll be better off now that his mind and his arm area bit more fresh and clear again, which is especially crucial for his first start proceeding the layoff.
Of course, that’s the easier factor in all of this is trying to know what we will get out of Johan Santana. The much more difficult variable, obviously, will be what to anticipate from the arm of the returning Ben Sheets. It’s been quite a miraculous journey for the former first-round pick - similar, actually, to his opposing hurler for today - as he seemingly fell off the face of the earth, going from dependable ace, to just another story of a guy with enormous potential, only to lose it due to frequent injury. He hasn’t lost all of his potential though, hence why he has received another opportunity to pitch in the big leagues, which is something that cannot be said for a lot of past aces when they are chucked by the wayside. Sheets still has something left, and given his terrific track record, it’s a wise investment to make. What makes this all the more intriguing is that this chance has beeng ranted to him by the Atlanta Braves- the same brilliant personnel that has put together arguably the best pitching staffs in baseball over the past two decades. If this were any other team, you could have your questions, but if there’s one organization that knows pitching more than anyone else, you could easily argue that it would be Atlanta, which makes this a safer-than-usual bet, considering the situation. That’s not everything, of course, which is why it’s important to note Sheets’ minor-league numbers since being signed by Atlanta, and while he did give up six runs in 11 innings at Double-A Mississippi (Most of which came in his first start), that’s an overrated factor, as a lot of past successful pitchers don't always give it their all or reveal their best in these rehab/return assignments (Ex. Jeff Suppan earlier this year had a 13+ ERA in multiple Triple-A starts for the Padres before making his first start back. And what did he do in that first start back? Only shut out the Brewers’ tough lineup over five or six innings). It’s human nature for a lot of people - not even just in baseball, but in anything - that you cannot be at your finest when you’re not facing the finest competition because mentally, you’re just not all there as a result. He will be today, however, facing Major League hitters for the first time since 2010, and the important thing I gathered from those minor league outings was his 10:1 K:BB ratio, indicating hes till has control and the ability to potentially overpower Major League lineups again. At the end of the day, if you take this under, you’re also buying intothe fact that this is a very critical pitching decision made by the Atlanta Braves organization, and that’s surely a good bet to make.
Other 7/15 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jake Westbrook vs Homer Bailey OVER 9 -$23 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Probably also going to take Sale vs Mendoza under, just waiting to see if line goes up to 9)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
3-2 yesterday, but down for the day after losing my bigger-sized bets. I accept full responsibility in that Harrell vs Lincecum loss, which is a shame because I know Lucas Harrell better than anyone (And he wasn't at his best, took him over 100 pitches just to make it five innings); it’s just too bad I’ve never really had a grasp on the unpredictable enigma known as Tim Lincecum. However, I don’t accept full responsibility in the Hochevar vs Peavy loss, as it turned out to be yet another painful, late-inning, half-a-freaking-run over/under loss in which I easily could have won. No. 1, Jake Peavy had allowed three runs or less in 14 of his previous 17 starts - just my luck that this is one of the 18-percent of his starts where he gives up more than three. No. 2, puny shortstop ALCIDES ESCOBAR had a multi-homer game. Yes, the same Alcides Escobar that has never clocked more than four homers in a season, while playing 150 games a year. Are you kidding me? Obviously, without that fluke incident, the under hits, but sadly, I’m bit by yet another cruel and unusual bad break, although I’ve obviously had much worse happen to me in this strange 2012 season so this one barely phases me. Anyway, on to Sunday…
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (Best Bet) - $50 for $46
Johan Santana vs Ben Sheets
UNDER 8.5
When you have studied MLB Over/Unders as long as I have - and every single day for hours at a time without taking zero days off - you automatically and inevitably gain a sense of what the over/under lines for a certain pitching matchup are going to be, well before you actually see them. That said, I’m surprised by the line in this one, as I was definitely expecting the over/under for this Mets/Braves finale to be 8. After all, youhave a true model of consistency taking the hill for one side, that being the great Johan Santana, who has once again solidified himself as one of the true upper-echelon aces in all of baseball. He’s been remarkably consistent in his comeback 2012 season, registering a 6-5 record with a 3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 99 Ks in 102 innings, high-end numbers from a guy that most weren’t expecting following severe injury. In the process, Santana has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 17 starts, an impressive tendency when you break it down over an extended period of time. While Santana has had mixed results against the Braves this year, the key in predicting this certain performance is where it comes in the season - Santana hasn’t pitched since a woeful outing against the Cubs on July 6, and these eight days off, including the all-star break, have most likely allowed him to kind of refresh and reset himself as he prepares for the grueling second half that is ahead, one that will require him to continue his string of mostly excellent pitching in order to keep the Mets in playoff contention. It’s human nature: Put yourself in the mind of Johan Santana after what he’s been through. Nobody really expected you to cruise the way you have been after surgery; at the same time, it’s possible you were losing your sense of urgency after impressing everyone all year. Therefore, with an extended break like Santana just had, he’ll be better off now that his mind and his arm area bit more fresh and clear again, which is especially crucial for his first start proceeding the layoff.
Of course, that’s the easier factor in all of this is trying to know what we will get out of Johan Santana. The much more difficult variable, obviously, will be what to anticipate from the arm of the returning Ben Sheets. It’s been quite a miraculous journey for the former first-round pick - similar, actually, to his opposing hurler for today - as he seemingly fell off the face of the earth, going from dependable ace, to just another story of a guy with enormous potential, only to lose it due to frequent injury. He hasn’t lost all of his potential though, hence why he has received another opportunity to pitch in the big leagues, which is something that cannot be said for a lot of past aces when they are chucked by the wayside. Sheets still has something left, and given his terrific track record, it’s a wise investment to make. What makes this all the more intriguing is that this chance has beeng ranted to him by the Atlanta Braves- the same brilliant personnel that has put together arguably the best pitching staffs in baseball over the past two decades. If this were any other team, you could have your questions, but if there’s one organization that knows pitching more than anyone else, you could easily argue that it would be Atlanta, which makes this a safer-than-usual bet, considering the situation. That’s not everything, of course, which is why it’s important to note Sheets’ minor-league numbers since being signed by Atlanta, and while he did give up six runs in 11 innings at Double-A Mississippi (Most of which came in his first start), that’s an overrated factor, as a lot of past successful pitchers don't always give it their all or reveal their best in these rehab/return assignments (Ex. Jeff Suppan earlier this year had a 13+ ERA in multiple Triple-A starts for the Padres before making his first start back. And what did he do in that first start back? Only shut out the Brewers’ tough lineup over five or six innings). It’s human nature for a lot of people - not even just in baseball, but in anything - that you cannot be at your finest when you’re not facing the finest competition because mentally, you’re just not all there as a result. He will be today, however, facing Major League hitters for the first time since 2010, and the important thing I gathered from those minor league outings was his 10:1 K:BB ratio, indicating hes till has control and the ability to potentially overpower Major League lineups again. At the end of the day, if you take this under, you’re also buying intothe fact that this is a very critical pitching decision made by the Atlanta Braves organization, and that’s surely a good bet to make.
Other 7/15 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jake Westbrook vs Homer Bailey OVER 9 -$23 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Probably also going to take Sale vs Mendoza under, just waiting to see if line goes up to 9)
