I have the over as well. Here's why:
Homer Bailey, despite what some people want to believe, is one of the most medicore pitchers out there, despite his previous high potential from years ago. Has he displayed shutdown stuff on occasion? Absolutely, he's had some truly magnificent outings. But more times than not, he comes off as hittable, and I feel this will be one of those starts. The big thing for us over bettors is that his split stats indicate he's much worse at home (5.93 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) than on the road (2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), which isn't much of a surprise when you mostly reside at a hitter's haven like Great American Ballpark.
As for Jake Westbrook, talk about someone who is completely overachieving. Westbrook has always had the reputation of simply being a nice pitcher to have in the middle of the rotation, and that's justified. He's contributed some gutsy starts and solid strings of pitching, with this year being no exception. But so many times, there have been guys, veterans included, who have completely outpitched their talent in the beginning of the year, only to fall of the wagon and see their numbers decline towards their more normal production. I believe Westbrook will be another victim to that trend, much like I predicted for Jason Hammel (Very similar pitchers experiencing more so unusual success in the first half). I was right about Hammel in his first second half start (And now he's injured, ironically), and I think the same fate lies ahead for Westbrook, beginning tonight in this hitter's park. The over is a solid bet, although not a huge one, as the possibility of 5-3 is there, but for the most part, the signs point to an over.
Homer Bailey, despite what some people want to believe, is one of the most medicore pitchers out there, despite his previous high potential from years ago. Has he displayed shutdown stuff on occasion? Absolutely, he's had some truly magnificent outings. But more times than not, he comes off as hittable, and I feel this will be one of those starts. The big thing for us over bettors is that his split stats indicate he's much worse at home (5.93 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) than on the road (2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), which isn't much of a surprise when you mostly reside at a hitter's haven like Great American Ballpark.
As for Jake Westbrook, talk about someone who is completely overachieving. Westbrook has always had the reputation of simply being a nice pitcher to have in the middle of the rotation, and that's justified. He's contributed some gutsy starts and solid strings of pitching, with this year being no exception. But so many times, there have been guys, veterans included, who have completely outpitched their talent in the beginning of the year, only to fall of the wagon and see their numbers decline towards their more normal production. I believe Westbrook will be another victim to that trend, much like I predicted for Jason Hammel (Very similar pitchers experiencing more so unusual success in the first half). I was right about Hammel in his first second half start (And now he's injured, ironically), and I think the same fate lies ahead for Westbrook, beginning tonight in this hitter's park. The over is a solid bet, although not a huge one, as the possibility of 5-3 is there, but for the most part, the signs point to an over.
As for the over 1.5 homeruns prop, first of all, I'm very jealous you have the ability to bet on props like that, as my sportsbook (ace23.com) doesn't offer unique props such as this one. In any case, I'd lean on the over as well because:
A)Bailey, as the stats show, is much worse at home. He gives up 1.5 homeruns per start, which is actually quite a ridiculous number if you think about it, and it's not like it's over a small sample size. Eight starts is enough to qualify as a legitimate statistic and trend.
B)Westbrook, meanwhile, doesn't give up as many longballs, but if you have the vibe that he's going to get tagged at least a little bit, combined with the fact that he hasn't given up any homeruns in his past two road starts (Law of Averages), I believe it adds up to at least one homerun being hit off the Cardinals' right-hander.
Over it is... and unfortunately, I'm unable to bet on it.
A)Bailey, as the stats show, is much worse at home. He gives up 1.5 homeruns per start, which is actually quite a ridiculous number if you think about it, and it's not like it's over a small sample size. Eight starts is enough to qualify as a legitimate statistic and trend.
B)Westbrook, meanwhile, doesn't give up as many longballs, but if you have the vibe that he's going to get tagged at least a little bit, combined with the fact that he hasn't given up any homeruns in his past two road starts (Law of Averages), I believe it adds up to at least one homerun being hit off the Cardinals' right-hander.
Over it is... and unfortunately, I'm unable to bet on it.
CatsOversUnders:
Your reasoning is right there with mine. Don't forget Great American Ballpark is #9 in runs allowed and #2 in homeruns allowed. Plus, the wind is blowing straight out at 10 mph (not strong enough to have too much of an effect on the ball but sure doesn't hurt.)
You can get the HR total prop at Bovada. I'm not sure where else
Your reasoning is right there with mine. Don't forget Great American Ballpark is #9 in runs allowed and #2 in homeruns allowed. Plus, the wind is blowing straight out at 10 mph (not strong enough to have too much of an effect on the ball but sure doesn't hurt.)
You can get the HR total prop at Bovada. I'm not sure where else
Fu*k the reds
Snap! Maybe I'll just remain neutral on this one! @)
I am still a little pissed the Cards beat my Rangers in the WS...
Hahaha.
Yea I hear that man. But u gotta admit even if u were on the other side, game 6 was one of the greatest games ever played. Great, great series. I cant believe that game 6 lost to the 9ers/saints game as the best game of the year in the espy's.
P.S. i bought back my under bet so ill root for some runs with ya.
