Dark Knight Rises to break record (see details..)
Fri 7/20 2:00PM (EST)
101 Yes +205
102 No -265
* Note: The Dark Knight Rises to break the all-time opening weekend box-office record. Current record is The Avengers; grossed $207,438,708 in opening weekend. Results @ Actual Weekend Gross for The Dark Knight Rises published by Box Office Mojo (July 20)
Fri 7/20 2:00PM (EST)
101 Yes +205
102 No -265
* Note: The Dark Knight Rises to break the all-time opening weekend box-office record. Current record is The Avengers; grossed $207,438,708 in opening weekend. Results @ Actual Weekend Gross for The Dark Knight Rises published by Box Office Mojo (July 20)
Why 'The Dark Knight Rises' May Not Break 'The Avengers' Opening Record - UPDATED
32 comments, 31 called-out
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With The Avengers redefining the meaning of “blockbuster openings” after racing past all previous records with a jaw-dropping $200 million domestic opening weekend, talk has turned toward the next big contender: The Dark Knight Rises. Everyone is wondering, will Batman step in to set a new opening record in July, the way the previous franchise installment The Dark Knight set the opening weekend record four years ago? [UPDATE: The official numbers are now in, and it turns out The Avengers made $207.4 million for the weekend.]
I love the Batman films, as you already know if you’ve ever read anything I’ve written about comic book movies. And I think The Dark Knight Rises is likely to haul in the largest domestic box office tally for 2012, in the long run. But, I have to admit I’m skeptical about whether it will beat the opening haul for The Avengers. And before you let personal preferences and hopes cause you to dismiss what I’m saying out of hand, bat-fans, read on to see the simple numbers game that makes me inclined to think The Avengers record might hold steady after The Dark Knight Rises opens.
The Avengers sold nearly 26 million tickets domestically on opening weekend to set that record. Back in 2008, The Dark Knight set the then-record with about 22 million in ticket sales. That means the newest Christopher Nolan Batman movie has to see a 20% audience increase over The Dark Knight just to match the number of ticket sales for The Avengers opening weekend. After the frantic buzz and interest for the previous bat-flick, is it really possible they could increase the audience by one-fifth?
Well, maybe, since obviously The Avengers brought in more people than the last massively hyped Batman movie… but then again, how many parents brought little kids to see The Dark Knight, compared to the sea of small viewers for The Avengers this past weekend? I have to say, I think the parents-and-kids demographic is what pushed The Avengers over the top in such a huge fashion, and I just don’t think we’ll see the same wide demographic attendance for The Dark Knight Rises, which will be a much more adult, dramatic movie.
But let’s just assume The Dark Knight Rises does match The Avengers in tickets sold. None of those tickets will be at 3D prices. The Avengers, on the other hand, enjoyed widespread 3D attendance and the added monetary advantages that bestowed. The Dark Knight Rises, therefore, has to contend with probably half or more of its opening weekend tickets be priced 18-25% lower than The Avengers.
So, as it turns out, it’s not enough for Batman to simply match the ticket sales of the Marvel super-team. No, Batman will have to exceed those ticket sales — and if at least 13 million tickets to The Avengers were priced at an average of around 20% higher, that means (if we add up the 3D margin difference to equate to the number of full-priced average tickets it would account for) The Dark Knight Rises needs to add an additional 3 million more ticket sales on top of how many The Avengers sold, and realistically probably a bit more than that, since a lot of 3D ticket prices are actually even more expensive in some big cities.
We’re talking, then, about almost 30 million tickets. That’s what The Dark Knight Rises needs in order to break the opening weekend box office record set by The Avengers.
How many people really think The Dark Knight Rises can sell 40% more tickets on opening weekend than The Dark Knight sold on opening weekend?
That’s the question that ultimately determines how good a chance there is for The Dark Knight Rises to beat the record set by The Avengers. And clearly, it seems undeniable that the only way for it to happen is if a lot of parents take a lot of little kids to see the Batman film, and/or if viewers go back for a whole lot of second and third viewings. The Avengers enjoyed a lot of repeat business, so it’s not clear just how much return visitation The Dark Knight Rises would need to really have a strong chance of setting a new record.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...es-may-not-break-the-avengers-opening-record/
32 comments, 31 called-out
+ Comment now
With The Avengers redefining the meaning of “blockbuster openings” after racing past all previous records with a jaw-dropping $200 million domestic opening weekend, talk has turned toward the next big contender: The Dark Knight Rises. Everyone is wondering, will Batman step in to set a new opening record in July, the way the previous franchise installment The Dark Knight set the opening weekend record four years ago? [UPDATE: The official numbers are now in, and it turns out The Avengers made $207.4 million for the weekend.]
I love the Batman films, as you already know if you’ve ever read anything I’ve written about comic book movies. And I think The Dark Knight Rises is likely to haul in the largest domestic box office tally for 2012, in the long run. But, I have to admit I’m skeptical about whether it will beat the opening haul for The Avengers. And before you let personal preferences and hopes cause you to dismiss what I’m saying out of hand, bat-fans, read on to see the simple numbers game that makes me inclined to think The Avengers record might hold steady after The Dark Knight Rises opens.
The Avengers sold nearly 26 million tickets domestically on opening weekend to set that record. Back in 2008, The Dark Knight set the then-record with about 22 million in ticket sales. That means the newest Christopher Nolan Batman movie has to see a 20% audience increase over The Dark Knight just to match the number of ticket sales for The Avengers opening weekend. After the frantic buzz and interest for the previous bat-flick, is it really possible they could increase the audience by one-fifth?
Well, maybe, since obviously The Avengers brought in more people than the last massively hyped Batman movie… but then again, how many parents brought little kids to see The Dark Knight, compared to the sea of small viewers for The Avengers this past weekend? I have to say, I think the parents-and-kids demographic is what pushed The Avengers over the top in such a huge fashion, and I just don’t think we’ll see the same wide demographic attendance for The Dark Knight Rises, which will be a much more adult, dramatic movie.
But let’s just assume The Dark Knight Rises does match The Avengers in tickets sold. None of those tickets will be at 3D prices. The Avengers, on the other hand, enjoyed widespread 3D attendance and the added monetary advantages that bestowed. The Dark Knight Rises, therefore, has to contend with probably half or more of its opening weekend tickets be priced 18-25% lower than The Avengers.
So, as it turns out, it’s not enough for Batman to simply match the ticket sales of the Marvel super-team. No, Batman will have to exceed those ticket sales — and if at least 13 million tickets to The Avengers were priced at an average of around 20% higher, that means (if we add up the 3D margin difference to equate to the number of full-priced average tickets it would account for) The Dark Knight Rises needs to add an additional 3 million more ticket sales on top of how many The Avengers sold, and realistically probably a bit more than that, since a lot of 3D ticket prices are actually even more expensive in some big cities.
We’re talking, then, about almost 30 million tickets. That’s what The Dark Knight Rises needs in order to break the opening weekend box office record set by The Avengers.
How many people really think The Dark Knight Rises can sell 40% more tickets on opening weekend than The Dark Knight sold on opening weekend?
That’s the question that ultimately determines how good a chance there is for The Dark Knight Rises to beat the record set by The Avengers. And clearly, it seems undeniable that the only way for it to happen is if a lot of parents take a lot of little kids to see the Batman film, and/or if viewers go back for a whole lot of second and third viewings. The Avengers enjoyed a lot of repeat business, so it’s not clear just how much return visitation The Dark Knight Rises would need to really have a strong chance of setting a new record.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...es-may-not-break-the-avengers-opening-record/
I haven't heard about this but it's interesting and tempting.
This should be something they offer for all popular series...
