2012 MLB O/U Record: 225-213-21, -$1,464 (Been making bigger bets this year, even bigger ones in the beginning of the year, and have received countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, continued my current solid run with a nice 2-1 performance yesterday, including winning both of my biggest bets, to make me 17-8-2 over the past couple of weeks. Not going to dwell on it, just looking to focus on what is always the first official day of the week throughout the baseball season, that being Monday…
(These are probably my smaller-sized bets for theday so there’s not my usual lengthy analysis here. More detailed write-up(s) to come later on in the night, such as possibly for my JA Happ vs Kip Wells under 7)
Dylan Axelrod vs Aaron Cook OVER 10.5 - $44 for $40
Well, unfortunately, Vegas was all over this over, as evident in how they made the line as high as it is all day, but don’t be intimidated by it. Dylan Axelrod, despite owning a start where he tossed seven impressive six-hit innings of two-run ball at Yankee Stadium only a few weeks ago (And everyone knows how the Yankees have the tendency to struggle against random obscure pitchers that aren't good), isn’t really that good at all, and the helping variable is the fact that ever since, the White Sox have shifted him back and forth between a bullpen role and starting gig, which messes with someone’s mindset. If you’re moving in and out of starting, how can you maintain a steady psyche? The answer is it becomes much difficult to do so, especially when you just pitched a fewdays ago in a relief role, and if your mind isn't fully concentrated on getting these top hitters out, you will not be successful. You especially need to be in the right mindset when approaching an assignment such as this one - going up against an always-hungry Red Sox lineup at Fenway Park. The opposing starter, Aaron Cook, hasn’t had the same problem, as although he hasn’t started since contributing a solid outing on the Fourth of July, he’s a veteran who has gotten used to becoming as wingman at the bottom of the Boston pitching staff. Still, we’ve seen him get tagged this year, which is always inevitable when you never strike out any batters. In fact, Cook has a pathetic two Ks all year in four starts! Two! Somehow, his WHIP sits at an admirable 1.19, given how he gets no punch-outs, but that’s certainly something that will be hard to maintain going up against one of the better offenses in baseball, that being the White Sox’ potent lineup. Yes, 11 runs is a lot to desire, but witht hese two offenses, some fireworks should be expected in the opener of this series.
Zach McAllister vs Alex Cobb OVER 8.5 - (Will post $$ in a few minutes; Waiting to see if it drops to 8)
I said it as soon as he was called up, and I said it even after he put together a nice 3.82 ERA in his first six starts of the season: Alex Cobb is as mediocre as they come. In his three starts since, Cobb has seen his ERA jump up over a full run - to a not-so-pleasant 4.89 - while also registering an okay 1.32 WHIP. To his credit, when Cobb struggles, he’ll make you beat him, as he doesn’t really walk many hitters. Even so, as you can tell, I’m not a fan, nor was I a fan of him last year in his solid rookie debut. At the end of the day, Cobb projects as nothing more than an okay bottom-of-the-rotation starter who could be in for another off start to begin his second half. Just before the first half came to a conclusion, Zach McAllister was putting together an excellent start, as he had a no-hitter going into the fifth inning of my best bet under that day against these same Rays, before his defense let him down with a missed catch error that directly led to four unearned runs (And also single-handedly cost me the under). Facing them again, I do not envision McAllister having nearly the same success as he did just over a week ago (He gave up zero earned runs the whole start), as he slots in around the same position as an Alex Cobb-type starter, actually. McAllister has shown hints of being a quality pitcher, even striking out an impressive eight against the Rays in that nice start, but this is simply a spot where I feel he’ll get tagged a bit. His numbers are skewed to declining when he’s on the road, and I feel that’s a trend that will continue here tonight. If the line for this game was 9, I don’t know if I’d take it, but I do like the fact that we can win with a pedestrian 6-3 to score. It’s worth a small play, at least.
*While I don’t think I’m going to take them, I’d lean on and recommend Edwin Jackson vs Carlos Zambrano over 8 and Wade Miley vs Bronson Arroyo under 9
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, continued my current solid run with a nice 2-1 performance yesterday, including winning both of my biggest bets, to make me 17-8-2 over the past couple of weeks. Not going to dwell on it, just looking to focus on what is always the first official day of the week throughout the baseball season, that being Monday…
(These are probably my smaller-sized bets for theday so there’s not my usual lengthy analysis here. More detailed write-up(s) to come later on in the night, such as possibly for my JA Happ vs Kip Wells under 7)
Dylan Axelrod vs Aaron Cook OVER 10.5 - $44 for $40
Well, unfortunately, Vegas was all over this over, as evident in how they made the line as high as it is all day, but don’t be intimidated by it. Dylan Axelrod, despite owning a start where he tossed seven impressive six-hit innings of two-run ball at Yankee Stadium only a few weeks ago (And everyone knows how the Yankees have the tendency to struggle against random obscure pitchers that aren't good), isn’t really that good at all, and the helping variable is the fact that ever since, the White Sox have shifted him back and forth between a bullpen role and starting gig, which messes with someone’s mindset. If you’re moving in and out of starting, how can you maintain a steady psyche? The answer is it becomes much difficult to do so, especially when you just pitched a fewdays ago in a relief role, and if your mind isn't fully concentrated on getting these top hitters out, you will not be successful. You especially need to be in the right mindset when approaching an assignment such as this one - going up against an always-hungry Red Sox lineup at Fenway Park. The opposing starter, Aaron Cook, hasn’t had the same problem, as although he hasn’t started since contributing a solid outing on the Fourth of July, he’s a veteran who has gotten used to becoming as wingman at the bottom of the Boston pitching staff. Still, we’ve seen him get tagged this year, which is always inevitable when you never strike out any batters. In fact, Cook has a pathetic two Ks all year in four starts! Two! Somehow, his WHIP sits at an admirable 1.19, given how he gets no punch-outs, but that’s certainly something that will be hard to maintain going up against one of the better offenses in baseball, that being the White Sox’ potent lineup. Yes, 11 runs is a lot to desire, but witht hese two offenses, some fireworks should be expected in the opener of this series.
Zach McAllister vs Alex Cobb OVER 8.5 - (Will post $$ in a few minutes; Waiting to see if it drops to 8)
I said it as soon as he was called up, and I said it even after he put together a nice 3.82 ERA in his first six starts of the season: Alex Cobb is as mediocre as they come. In his three starts since, Cobb has seen his ERA jump up over a full run - to a not-so-pleasant 4.89 - while also registering an okay 1.32 WHIP. To his credit, when Cobb struggles, he’ll make you beat him, as he doesn’t really walk many hitters. Even so, as you can tell, I’m not a fan, nor was I a fan of him last year in his solid rookie debut. At the end of the day, Cobb projects as nothing more than an okay bottom-of-the-rotation starter who could be in for another off start to begin his second half. Just before the first half came to a conclusion, Zach McAllister was putting together an excellent start, as he had a no-hitter going into the fifth inning of my best bet under that day against these same Rays, before his defense let him down with a missed catch error that directly led to four unearned runs (And also single-handedly cost me the under). Facing them again, I do not envision McAllister having nearly the same success as he did just over a week ago (He gave up zero earned runs the whole start), as he slots in around the same position as an Alex Cobb-type starter, actually. McAllister has shown hints of being a quality pitcher, even striking out an impressive eight against the Rays in that nice start, but this is simply a spot where I feel he’ll get tagged a bit. His numbers are skewed to declining when he’s on the road, and I feel that’s a trend that will continue here tonight. If the line for this game was 9, I don’t know if I’d take it, but I do like the fact that we can win with a pedestrian 6-3 to score. It’s worth a small play, at least.
*While I don’t think I’m going to take them, I’d lean on and recommend Edwin Jackson vs Carlos Zambrano over 8 and Wade Miley vs Bronson Arroyo under 9
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
