need help shortcutting my handicapping of statistics for my mlb/nfl totals system.. any help greatly appreciated!!!

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what i am trying to do is find a faster way (currently takes me a few hours on a daily basis) to analyze stats and difference from the norm/average stat to calculate my own over/under line in handicapping games. Basically what i am looking to do is take AL/NL stats such as average starter era, average reliever era. average starter/reliever whip, average park rating (typically range from like .5-1.5 with anything below 1 favoring the pitcher and over 1 favoring thr batter), average runs per game scored, average batting average, average OPS, etc..
what i do when handicapping a game total is i find the average of all these stats for every team in baseball (one for the AL and one for the NL).

Then each day i take a game, say for example SEA vs OAK and i take the stats for these two teams for the year and in the last 10 games. i then compare both SEA and OAK numbers and i combine them. I then calculate the difference from the norm or league average. i then have weighted calculations for how much each of these stats difference from the norm should either move the total line up or down from the season average runs scored total per game to create my line. if there is a a big enough difference, i place a wager of 1-3 units depending on how big that difference is.

My problem is this takes forever!! the system works great, i use it for NFL also but i no longer have the time on a daily basis to do these calculations. Does anybody have a program or know a good way to analyze/calculate statistics faster then 1 at a time? if anyone can help me with this problem it would be greatly appreciated!
 
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I create lines and totals each day for most sports. here are my MLB projections for today. (listed below) My totals are beating the closer and winning more than the sides. It's been that way all season. I've just put the tracking sheet online for the 2nd half of the season. Here it is. You'll see sides are at 50% totals around 60%. (closing lines taken from pinnacle)

I don't have an easy solution to your question, but I think this is what you are getting at, sort of. The numbers aren't a magic formula to handicapping success but they do help in the process.

http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_wrapper&view=wrapper&Itemid=61

To get a projection for other sports or other games use the daily calendar

http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predcal (pick a date and hit go)

or the single game predictor

http://www.edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predictor

7/17

Away-- Texas Rangers Roy Oswalt -123
Home-- Oakland Athletics Bartolo Colon



Projected Game Total 7.4


Away-- San Francisco Giants Barry Zito
Home-- Atlanta Braves Jair Jurrjens -149



Projected Game Total 9.1


Away-- St. Louis Cardinals J. Kelly -118
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Randy Wolf



Projected Game Total 9.5


Away-- Miami Marlins Anibal Sanchez -129
Home-- Chicago Cubs T. Wood



Projected Game Total 7.5


Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Roy Halladay -160
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Stephen Fife



Projected Game Total 7.1


Away-- New York Mets Jonathon Niese
Home-- Washington Nationals R.Detwiler -130



Projected Game Total 8.1


Away-- Houston Astros J. Lyles
Home-- San Diego Padres R. Ohlendorf -143



Projected Game Total 7.4


Away-- Cleveland Indians Josh Tomlin
Home-- Tampa Bay Rays M. Moore -136



Projected Game Total 8


Away-- Chicago White Sox Philip Humber
Home-- Boston Red Sox Jon Lester -154



Projected Game Total 10


Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Trevor Bauer
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Johnny Cueto -177



Projected Game Total 8.3


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Erik Bedard -114
Home-- Colorado Rockies C. Friedrich



Projected Game Total 10.4


Away-- Seattle Mariners B. Beavan
Home-- Kansas City Royals E. Teaford -121



Projected Game Total 8.9


Away-- Los Angeles Angels Garrett Richards
Home-- Detroit Tigers J. Turner -124



Projected Game Total 9.2


Away-- Baltimore Orioles Z. Britton
Home-- Minnesota Twins S. Deduno -118



Projected Game Total 9.7


Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Brett Cecil
Home-- New York Yankees CC Sabathia -205



Projected Game Total 9.1
 

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i would recommend going into pops' thread and doing the required research. all the stats are there and you seem to likely have a good grasp on Excel so you'll be way ahead of the curve.

or, like some posters, just whine about bad breaks when your under 7 loses in a 9-8 game and tell us all that every win is due to your superior capping skills
 

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rolltide- can you please post a link to the thread. i am not super good with computers, i am good with doing calculations in my head. i am not good with excel or i would not be asking this question. it is not a question of finding these stats, they are all easily available.. it is calculating the difference of all the stats from the average or norm that is very time consuming..
 

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national sports rankings- that is not what i am looking for. i dont want something that will just give me their computer predictions.. i have certin weights i use in valuing differences in stats in order to calculate my own total to find which games have the largest difference in my line vs book line. for example.. i weigh say King felix vs Dan harrens average eras difference from the norm more then the bullpens of each staff difference from the league average and i way that difference more the say ballpark rating difference from the lague average of 1. so i need a way to do all these calculations quickly on my own. does that make sense what i am wanting?
 
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national sports rankings- that is not what i am looking for. i dont want something that will just give me their computer predictions.. i have certin weights i use in valuing differences in stats in order to calculate my own total to find which games have the largest difference in my line vs book line. for example.. i weigh say King felix vs Dan harrens average eras difference from the norm more then the bullpens of each staff difference from the league average and i way that difference more the say ballpark rating difference from the lague average of 1. so i need a way to do all these calculations quickly on my own. does that make sense what i am wanting?

Yes it makes absolute sense. It's exactly what I've done. Why can't you do it in excel? Set your formula up, have your data for teams and pitchers all ready to input and get the result you desire.
 
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Get the league averages from fangraphs or baseball reference daily and input them as well. Maybe I'm missing something, but you've stated the system works great, shouldn't you be doing it at all costs if it's working?
 

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There is nothing "magical" about the process you are looking for. Basically, each of the sets of data youl mentioned is available on any number of sites. Simply import from that particular site into a folder (named DATABASE, I suppose). Without a scrapeing tool, you'll pull everything on a certain page, which will be more data than you need....

Next, from your "master sheet" simply access the data in the DATABASE folder and put it into the proper spot or form so that you can analyize it the way you want it.

For help with the "import" portion, Excel help will explain it.....

Once you have all the pages necessary, create a MACRO that will download the data at the touch of a key (or button). One keystroke will then download ALL the data in seconds. Saves a lot of time.
 

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what is the process for setting up the equation in excell? can you give me an example for say calculating the starting pitching part.. like what would i put in each colum and then how do i do the equation part?

my process for doing that by hand would be to for example:

say the two starting pitchers for the game have a 3.1 era and a 4.3 era. i would add those two up to get 7.4. i would then divide that by 2 to get 3.7. the league average in the american league would be say 4.2 for starting pitchers (that is not the actual figure, i just made that up for example). i then so 4.2-3.7 to get a difference of .50. that means the starting pitching for this game has a .50 era better then the league average. i then multiply that by a weighted average based on how important i believe that should move the average runs per game in the american league (or base total for that game) and so on and so on for each stat... this is where i am confused on how to do all these calculations in excel (i am not savy when it comes to excel). do i need to do each calculation on seperate pages etc...? if someone could provide a step by step guide on how to do this or maybe attach a sample excel sheet on what it would look like or even message it to me, i would be forever greatful. i would be willing to share my weighted averages for each stat with the person that helps me. this is my best system for handicapping games and i do very well in both nfl/ncaa football and mlb. thanks for all the help so far guys! if someone can make the excel sheet so i can easily just plug in or copy and paste the stats to do the calculations i would even be willing to pay threw paypall. i just dont do well with excel, nor do i have the time to learn currently with how much of my time my job takes up. let me kmow if someone would be willing to make this for me.
 

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