Wednesday: Turnaround Day or Else YTD: ?

ofred · Jul 18, 2012

Tuesday: Late games are not final, but it's looking like a pretty poor day. It seems the teams I have taken load the bases only to end the inning meekly- many times. But no excuses, Wednesday's feeling good. Another day like today, I think I'll need to be MUCH more selective, less plays. I keep thinking I will, but some of these 1 unit games look too good to pass up. Must control the urges……..

Twins-1. (even). 4 units.
Twins -1/2 first 5 IPs. One unit. Like this game a lot. Minnesota has been hitting as well the Yankees as of late. Not winning, but hitting. They seem to especially like Orioles pitching and Wednesday they get Tommy Hunter. Tommy has given up 20 HRs in just 80 IPs. Part of the reason is that his low 90s fastball is fairly straight, his cutter doesn't cut enough and is only a bit slower than his fastball. The Orioles have avoided starting him for awhile, but now they have no one else. In Hunter's last starts in AAA, he gave up 9 runs in 12 IPs. Add to this the orioles crappy D and I see lots of runs for the Twins. Liriano has been the ace of the staff and I think he takes great pride in his resurgence. He seems to be a guy that needs to prove something to stay motivated. He has 67 Ks in his last 57 IPs. The Orioles still have lineup issues, and I don't like their combination of lack of speed and striking out.

ofred · Jul 18, 2012

CINN -1. 4 units. Another game I really like. Latos has nice movement on his fastball and can step it up to the mid 90s when needed. He also commands his slider well and has good downward motion on it. His curve is another plus pitch. In 5 of his last 6 starts he has been the dominant guy the Reds need to compliment Cueto. Arizona has gone dormant again on the road, Chris Young is in a horrible slump, and the bottom and top of the order are not getting on base. Ian Kennedy is one of those pitchers that is definitely on a downward slide. It's almost like he is injured and won't tell the team. Or he is too proud to get help with his pitching. Anyways, he has been flaming out since may, with an occasional good start. The Reds are streaky and know that they are in a tough divisional fight with STL and the Pirates. They can't lose these type of games. They also have huge edge in the BP.

ofred · Jul 18, 2012

All one unit PLAYS:
NYY: -1. 1/2 unit. 1/2 unit on the over 10.
Seattle/ KC- over 9. One unit. Chen has been awful of late, really awful and the Mariners are on a road tear, as usual. Millwood is pitching way over his head, and KC has actually been hitting well in the past 2 weeks.
Oakland. ML. (+122). Let's try this again. The A's had an off night but are hitting well for the past week or so. About .290. Blackley has been a nice find, a lefty whose velocity is improving and has very good command of all of his pitches. Handled Texas well last time. Colby Lewis is erratic, but if he's off, he can get shelled early. The A's, until Tuesday, were getting to pitchers early.
Milwaukee. ML (+134). One unit. Braun is likely out, but Thornburg might actually out pitch Wainwright Wednesday. In the minors , held batters to a .212 average. Has very good stats on HRs, K:BB ratio, etc. Had a nice little stint against the hot hitting Pirates recently. Wainwright has been off and on this year, but is definitely not all the way back from his injury. Both BPs are poor. Holiday might be out too.

ofred · Jul 18, 2012

Almost forgot.
Pirates. ML.(-117) One unit. Guthrie bet. Pirates BP and McDonald should cover this very generous ML play. Besides McCutcheon is still impossible to pitch to.

40AcresMafia · Jul 18, 2012

These picks lookin more like the Fred i know.

Bol sir.

atlantic10 · Jul 18, 2012

You recognize less plays is the way to go to turn it back around and yet fire away again at the board.

GL.

ofred · Jul 18, 2012

atlantic10 said:
You recognize less plays is the way to go to turn it back around and yet fire away again at the board.

GL.

I know, it's sick isn't it? Here's one more:
LAA: TT over 4.5. Fister's last outing in Baltimore looked very good, like the old Fister of last year. But he has lost about 3-4 MPH off his fastball, the Orioles have been giving many pitchers their best outings as of late, and the Angels just have a great combination of hot hitters, speed, power and guys that make contact. Also, the Tigers BP is starting to look crappy again. Comerica Park also seems to be a hitter's paradise at times.

ofred · Jul 18, 2012

YTD after Tuesday: 255-225, +59 units

ofred · Jul 18, 2012

Betting off 2 of the units on the Cinn. game and increasing TT on Angels to 2 units. So now they're:
Cinn-1. 2units. Reds without Votto just have a big hole in their lineup. Still like the Reds in this game, just a little less.
LAA. TT over 4.5 . 2 units.

BORO · Jul 18, 2012

Good luck tonight o fred.

ofred · Jul 18, 2012

SF. ML. One unit. These West Coast teams get away from their pitcher's parks and seem to light up the scoreboard. See SD and Seattle on the road vs. at home. Plus Vogelsong's last 2 strong road outings vs. Pirates and LAA convince me that he can shut down this underachieving Braves' lineup. In fact, when does Vogelsong ever have a poor outing? Mike Minor has been consistently giving up the long ball and 3-5 runs per outing, except for a rare 1-2 run outing.

ofred · Jul 18, 2012

This Reds game is killing me. Ian Kennedy has got nothing yet still maintains a 2-0 lead in the second. Now Latos is up with 2 on.

Now 2-1, but I'm not kidding, Kennedy is lucky he's in this game.

Wednesday: Turnaround Day or Else YTD: ?

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