The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - July 18, 2012 - YTD: 228-219-22

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 228-219-22, -$1,575 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

2-2-1 yesterday, although it honestly should’ve been worse than that, so let’s just chalk that up as a rare off day, when I was wrong on Johnny Cueto. I said he’s fantastic; it’s quite obvious, actually, despite inexplicably being snubbed from the all-star team. But I mean, it’s inevitable there will be a string of pitching where he’s just not himself, especially pitching regularly in that boom box Great American Ballpark, but it just didn’t come last night to combine with Trevor Bauer’s erratic pitching for an over. Nonetheless, I feel much better about this mid-July Wednesday…


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Detroit Tigers (Co-Best Bet) - $74 for $65
CJ Wilson vs Doug Fister
UNDER 9

Considering the way the Angels are hitting at the current moment, it’s a ballsy bet to take them in an under on any given night. However, with the line as big as it is, and the starting pitchers involved, the under might be the smart bet for a variety of reasons. First, let’s start with the hurler who has the daunting task tonight of trying to minimize those hot Angels’ bats, that being Doug Fister. It’s important to observe that Fister has not been his usual dominant self this year, as evident in his slowly declined numbers, but that doesn’t mean he’s progressing back towards his old form. I watched him in his last start in Baltimore, which is certainly no easy assignment either, and the end result was a brilliant seven-inning performance in which he allowed no runs and three hits, while striking out eight. In other words, it was as dominant a road start as one could have, and that’s crucial for a pitcher on the rebound. Rhythm and mindset is everything, and with the effort Fister is coming off of last Friday, how can he not be feeling really good? Now, he’s at home taking on arguably the hottest offense in the league, but he has the great stuff to contain them, and he’s certainly in the right state of mind coming off that near-flawless display against the Orioles. We should have him in good form for this one.

Opposing Fister will be a true Mr. Consistency on the mound, that being the great CJ Wilson. I’ve written the same great things about him countless times this year, right before he secures an under for me, so hopefully it’s no different in this Wednesday night contest. Detroit’s bats can be just as potent as their counterparts tonight, but the Angels’ southpaw has obviously proven over the past couple of years-and-change that he can minimize any offense set out in front of him. After all, Wilson is 9-5 with a sparkling 2.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 95 Ks in 118 IP. In addition, he’s allowed more than three earned runs just ONCE THE ENTIRE SEASON, and that wasn’t even a real start; it was the rain-shortened one in which he exited early in the first, only to see the game resume hours later and a reliever allow all those inherited runners to score, so that barely counts. Either way, it’s quite a remarkable run that Wilson has been on this year, as he just seemingly does everything right on the mound mentally and physically. The only thing I worry about when I take an under involving CJ Wilson is that he’s too mentally-oriented, which I’ve detailed before and had proven many times before from my countless times watching him closely as a member of the Rangers dating back to the mid-2000’s (Remember that I’m a diehard Rangers fan), and by that,I mean he can be incredibly vulnerable to the little things around him that he may not have control over, but he easily lets snowball, whether it be a defensive lapse or a bad umpire call. Other than that, though, he’s golden, as are most of his unders. Hopefully that rings true once again in this one.


Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals (Co-Best Bet) - $63 for $60
Kevin Millwood vs Bruce Chen
UNDER 9

There’s a reason why Vegas set the line at 9 and has kept it there all day: They know there’s a lot of potential in this under, and they don’t want to let us under bettors escape that easily with a likely 5-4 outcome. No. 1, they realize that Bruce Chen is much, much, much better than where his current numbers sit. After all, Chen is 7-8 with an ugly 5.50 ERA and not-so-pretty-either 1.38 WHIP. However, they realize that Chen will obviously finish up his 2012 campaign with numbers better than that, and a start like this is viewed as an opportunity to strongly right the ship. If you look at Chen’s numbers over the recent past, you’d be surprised at how underrated he’s really been. Last year, for instance, the Kansas City southpaw was 12-8 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.30 WHIP - perfectly respectable numbers that would get other pitchers at least some attention. And here, he’s facing, not only a lineup that is unintimidating compared to most, but one that also ranks towards the bottom offenses against left-handed pitching. The key thing is this: Bruce Chen is significantly above what his numbers say, and it’s only inevitable that they come down. I’ve watched him pitch a few times this year and he’s still got talent. This is a great spot for him to spark an effort back towards his normalcy.

Kevin Millwood, meanwhile, has seemingly been the opposite, having pitched arguably above his talent level, at least at this late point in his underrated career. I somewhat agree and somewhat disagree with that sentiment. My disagreeing comes from the fact that Millwood was cruising like this a couple of years ago - his last real opportunity in the bigs when he was in Baltimore - and he’s showing that he still has it. Once again, though, like that wonderful 2012 season he had with the O’s, he gets very little run support, which is why his record sits at 3-7. The part where I agree with him pitching above his talent level is that he’s not the same overpowering pitcher he once was, which requires some luck for him to be as good as he has been, and that’s especially true with an ERA that low while doing work in the rugged American League West. At the end of the day, though, I really still feel Millwood is a good pitcher who can sustain some of the success he’s been having. Ultimately, I think he’ll lose this game, as the Royals’ offense is overdue for a nice game, and to avoid this potential sweep (Or is it a four-gamer? My technique that I’ve used for years doesn’t allow me to look at the upcoming schedule. Very strict by that), but with the line at 9, we have room for error, and that’s crucial in a matchup of two pitchers who are ultimately underrated in their craft.


Other 7/18 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Justin Masterson vs Jeremy Hellickson OVER 8 - $43 for $40
Ryan Vogelsong vs Mike Minor UNDER 8.5 - $32 for $30


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Typical RIDICULOUS bad beat...

Vogelsong vs Minor under 8.5 was a 1-1 pitcher's duel heading into extra innings, as I could not have been ANYMORE 100-PERCENT RIGHT, and with these two terrific bullpens, you'd think the under would still hit easily in extras. Well, San Francisco took a 3-1 lead, only for Brian McCann to hit his first homerun of the second half - a two-run bomb with two outs, of course - off the tremendous Santiago Casilla to tie it up at 3. So, even with these awesome bullpens, there's still room for error, as remember, I just need under 8.5.

Nope, still doesn't matter, since this is me we're talking about and I lead the country in bad breaks in 2012. Brandon Crawford just drilled a very random 3-run homer (His second of the year... are you serioussss) to completely kill the under and reward those who made the wrong bet and took the over. Typical.
 

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