2012 MLB O/U Record: 229-221-23, -$1,630 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, should’ve been up yesterday with a winning record, but instead, finished 1-2-1, thanks to - what else? - yet another horrendous bad beat, which I continue to lead the country in this season. For those that didn’t see, I couldn’t have been anymore 100-percent right concerning my Vogelsong vs Minor under 8.5, as it was 1-1 going into extra innings (Although the Braves could have won it in the ninth with second and third, and only one out). Then it became 3-1 Giants going into the bottom of the tenth, and at one point, there were two outs and no one on for Atlanta against dominant closer Santiago Casilla, before Freddie Freeman got on with a hit, leading the way for a ridiculous two-out, two-run homer from Brian McCann that tied it up at 3. Still, I had plenty of room, and given these two excellent bullpens, a win should have been inevitable, but instead, Brandon Crawford randomly drilled his second homer of the season, a three-run shot, that ultimately killed the under and led to even more scoring. I mean, it’s unbelievable how many similar instances like this have happened to me this year, as there are far too many games in 2012 (Yesterday's Cliff Lee vs Clayton Kershaw matchup is another example) where people are being rewarded with a “win” for making the wrong bet. Just have to try not to dwell on it, put it behind me, and move on to this Thursday…
Cleveland Indians @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet) - $94 for $85
Ubaldo Jimenez vs David Price
UNDER 7.5
Ah, the first game on this Thursday slate and it might actually have the most potential of any other over/under on the schedule. There’s a variety of reasons to get excited concerning this under, and let’s commence that sentiment with one of the most dependable aces in all of baseball, that being the brilliant David Price. In 2012, Price has continued to make his mark as one of the finest hurlers out there, as evident in his remarkable statline: 12-4, 2.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 113:40 K:BB ratio in 119 IP. All across the board, Price is having himself another magnificent season. To add to that, Price has yielded over three earned runs just twice all season in 18 starts. Best of all, at least as it pertains to the Rays’ southpaw in this specific matchup, is that we’re catching him in his best possible 2012 setting. In other words, Price has been doing his best work this year at home (2.25 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .209 BAA in nine starts), as well as in daytime games (2.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .214 BAA), so hopefully that adds up to the Tampa Bay ace having his usual terrific start.
Of course, it could come down to the opposing starter, who could single-handedly make or break this under, that being the very mercurial Ubaldo Jimenez. With him, it’s almost always a mixed bag that makes him so hard to predict, but like with his teammate Justin Masterson, I’ve actually been good this year pinpointing when Ubaldo was going to be on, or when he’s going to display some of that trademark wildness. His last start certainly qualified as such, when the Blue Jays smacked him around for eight runs and seven hits in only 2.1 IP. Luckily, in the few instances where Jimenez surrendered a total similar to that (It’s happened two other times), he’s always bounced back to record a start in his next outing where he gave up three runs or less, so perhaps we could use that last ugly outing to our advantage. Mentally, that tells me he kind of resets himself and places more focus on that very next start, which comes here this afternoon in Tampa. It wasn’t that long ago when Jimenez was once legitimately one of baseball’s best aces, and he’s reminded everyone of that in flashes throughout 2012. Being matched up today against David Price, hopefully that contributes to bringing out the good side from the Indians’ “Jekyll and Hyde” right-hander. With the line at 7.5, all we need is a very favorable 5-2 outcome.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Will also be placing a bigger-sized bet on Lucas Harrell vs Edinson Volquez under. A write-up will most likely come with that later, and I’m also waiting to see if the line goes up to 7 like it should, although I doubt that will happen)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, should’ve been up yesterday with a winning record, but instead, finished 1-2-1, thanks to - what else? - yet another horrendous bad beat, which I continue to lead the country in this season. For those that didn’t see, I couldn’t have been anymore 100-percent right concerning my Vogelsong vs Minor under 8.5, as it was 1-1 going into extra innings (Although the Braves could have won it in the ninth with second and third, and only one out). Then it became 3-1 Giants going into the bottom of the tenth, and at one point, there were two outs and no one on for Atlanta against dominant closer Santiago Casilla, before Freddie Freeman got on with a hit, leading the way for a ridiculous two-out, two-run homer from Brian McCann that tied it up at 3. Still, I had plenty of room, and given these two excellent bullpens, a win should have been inevitable, but instead, Brandon Crawford randomly drilled his second homer of the season, a three-run shot, that ultimately killed the under and led to even more scoring. I mean, it’s unbelievable how many similar instances like this have happened to me this year, as there are far too many games in 2012 (Yesterday's Cliff Lee vs Clayton Kershaw matchup is another example) where people are being rewarded with a “win” for making the wrong bet. Just have to try not to dwell on it, put it behind me, and move on to this Thursday…
Cleveland Indians @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet) - $94 for $85
Ubaldo Jimenez vs David Price
UNDER 7.5
Ah, the first game on this Thursday slate and it might actually have the most potential of any other over/under on the schedule. There’s a variety of reasons to get excited concerning this under, and let’s commence that sentiment with one of the most dependable aces in all of baseball, that being the brilliant David Price. In 2012, Price has continued to make his mark as one of the finest hurlers out there, as evident in his remarkable statline: 12-4, 2.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 113:40 K:BB ratio in 119 IP. All across the board, Price is having himself another magnificent season. To add to that, Price has yielded over three earned runs just twice all season in 18 starts. Best of all, at least as it pertains to the Rays’ southpaw in this specific matchup, is that we’re catching him in his best possible 2012 setting. In other words, Price has been doing his best work this year at home (2.25 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .209 BAA in nine starts), as well as in daytime games (2.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .214 BAA), so hopefully that adds up to the Tampa Bay ace having his usual terrific start.
Of course, it could come down to the opposing starter, who could single-handedly make or break this under, that being the very mercurial Ubaldo Jimenez. With him, it’s almost always a mixed bag that makes him so hard to predict, but like with his teammate Justin Masterson, I’ve actually been good this year pinpointing when Ubaldo was going to be on, or when he’s going to display some of that trademark wildness. His last start certainly qualified as such, when the Blue Jays smacked him around for eight runs and seven hits in only 2.1 IP. Luckily, in the few instances where Jimenez surrendered a total similar to that (It’s happened two other times), he’s always bounced back to record a start in his next outing where he gave up three runs or less, so perhaps we could use that last ugly outing to our advantage. Mentally, that tells me he kind of resets himself and places more focus on that very next start, which comes here this afternoon in Tampa. It wasn’t that long ago when Jimenez was once legitimately one of baseball’s best aces, and he’s reminded everyone of that in flashes throughout 2012. Being matched up today against David Price, hopefully that contributes to bringing out the good side from the Indians’ “Jekyll and Hyde” right-hander. With the line at 7.5, all we need is a very favorable 5-2 outcome.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Will also be placing a bigger-sized bet on Lucas Harrell vs Edinson Volquez under. A write-up will most likely come with that later, and I’m also waiting to see if the line goes up to 7 like it should, although I doubt that will happen)
