Friday: My Slump is Over YTD: 261-232, +53.3 units

Search

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
Thursday: 1-3, -2.3 units

Let's just say it again, DAMN TWINS! Somehow they managed to make the stinking Orioles look good. This has easily been the toughest 4 days since I've been posting this season. Three things come to mind:
1) Though I didn't like the card all week, I forced picks and units up without really having enough good reasons to play a team or bet. Should have had less plays and more 1 unit plays. Did not show good discipline. That happens when someone wins and thinks it'll go on forever, every week.
2) Being up 53 units is still a good year considering most all of my plays are 1,2 and 3 unit bets. And this is not my job, but an experiment to see if it's possible to win over a long period of time.
3) Friday, I really like the card. If it bombs, well…I still like these plays.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 11, 2009
Messages
511
Tokens
Can't fricken wait. You've been solid all year. Don't let the bad streak get to you. One of the main guys I wake up and make sure I read before work. Your work is greatly appreciated. Don't think for moment that it's not!
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
LAA: 5 units -1. Right away you might say but the Rangers killed Weaver the last time they faced him. But that was when the Rangers were killing every pitcher in the AL. That all stopped in May. Since May they are just a bit above .500. In May they weren't winning as much but were still hitting. This is a different club that seems to be even more struggling to score runs. They are facing Weaver who right now is about the hottest pitcher in the AL along with Sale and Felix and Price. Yes the Yankees got to him a bit last outing, but The Yankees are hitting every pitcher and scoring about 6.5 runs per game in the past month. Now Derek Holland has it much tougher. Not one Angel has been an easy out career wise for him. He pitched well at Seattle, but that is an outlier. Your little sister could shut down the Mariners at Safeco(though Darvish can't). Furthermore, the Angels know this is huge series for them. They have played very well for over a month, have their best starter going, and will be very focused. Possibly this is why they looked a little off vs. Detroit the last 2 days. They have a red hot Trout and Pujols, and many hitters who have been trending up for the past month. Trumbo is getting hot again. The bullpens are about even, though I like that the Angels are at home. This one moved in the Angels favor the minute the line opened for good reason.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
Arizona-1. 4 units. A big part of this play is that Houston is in one of those big time slumps that sometimes takes weeks to get out of. Following Seattle, I've seen it on and off for 3 years. The Astros have so many guys missing from earlier in the year, that they are fielding a lineup of young players not ready, slumping regulars(like Altuve) and the bottom of their order is a guaranteed rally buster. Cahill has been holding his own, but it seems almost every pitcher has been dominating vs. the Astros lately. I expect he'll post his best line in a month Friday. He has enough of a repertoire of pitches, with a good sinker, that I doubt the Astros will do much. They also haven't seen Cahill yet this year and many of the young hitters, never have. Take Chris Young out of the lineup(and they really should, he is so lost), and the D-Backs are hitting .456 vs. Norris career wise. The D-Backs started hitting in the Reds series on the road and are usually much better at home. Since both BPs are pretty poor, it's a wash there.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
KC: TT over 5 (I think). 2 units. I rarely go 2 units on a team total, but this one is for the truly worst starter in the majors who is still somehow able to start a game for a major league team- Nick Blackburn. The Royals have seen him a whole bunch and should know exactly what he'll do. In his last 9 starts he has one quality start(the ball must have been hit right at the fielders that day). He has yielded 15 HRs in just 63 IPs, with a 22:30 walk:K ratio. Hitters are hitting .333 off of him, and if you think that's a fluke, he had a .300 BAA the last 2 years before this year. Furthermore the Twins long relief and short relief(as seen in the Orioles series) stinks. No one can be relied upon. The Royals are hitting .273 vs. righties, and in the last 7 games have one of the best slugging avgs. the majors and are hitting .322- cutting down on Ks and walking more. They only struck out 3 times vs. Felix Thursday (not bad considering how many King Felix has been whiffing batters lately). If the TT is over 5, I might take KC -1.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
Tampa: TT.4.5? One unit
Tampa/ Seattle. Over 4? First 5. One unit. Iwakuma pitched mediocre in Japan his last 2 years, clearly regressing. The Mariners are stuck with his contract and want to see if they have anything(they don't). Since they are not playoff bound, what the hell? Iwakuma has given up 5 HRs in just 15.2 IPs, with 9 walks and 7 Ks. he seems to have no out pitch. The Rangers would have hit him harder if they weren't slumping so badly. Iwakuma also is usually knocked out early or taken out after 3 or 4 IPs. Shields is not much better and has been giving up many early runs. Seattle has been hitting so well on this road trip and especially likes to hit RHPs. 45 hits in his last 26.2 IPs and many long balls this year. Tampa also might be starting to hit and looked a bit improved there in the Indians series.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
Phillies:-1. Lincecum might be able to shut out Houston, but on the road he has been awful. I expect it will continue vs. a real lineup.The Phillies are finally healthy and have that speed in a few guys that can drive Tim crazy when on base. Worley is solid and many of the Giants have not seen him or not much. I still think the Phils have not given up on their season.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
On Weaver, a 0.48 ERA at home this year and always pitches well at home. In fact, pitches well vs. Texas at home career wise.

On Houston, last 7 games- batting .175 with 56 Ks and 17 walks.
 

New member
Joined
Dec 27, 2008
Messages
322
Tokens
Thanks for the plays Fred. Big night.

I can assume TB TT is over 4.5, but given the multiple unit plays tonight are the Phillies -1 a one unit play or higher?

BOL
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
Thanks for the plays Fred. Big night.

I can assume TB TT is over 4.5, but given the multiple unit plays tonight are the Phillies -1 a one unit play or higher?

BOL
Tampa is over 4.5 for one unit.
The total for the first 5 Tampa/ Seattle is only 4: On that for one unit large.
Phil: one unit
 

New member
Joined
Apr 5, 2012
Messages
839
Tokens
Uh oh. I overcommitted on the Angels today -- since we're both on a bit of a cold streak I hope they pull through tonight.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,766
Messages
13,438,770
Members
99,337
Latest member
hbs_solutions
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com