UFC 149: Faber not a great bet
Lombard makes UFC debut, but value might be found with Boetsch
By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
UFC 149 will feature some of the most exciting fighters in MMA, though they won't be guys you've seen much of before in the Octagon.
For the most part, the major names Saturday night have gained their notoriety in other organizations. The main event will be reminiscent of one of the most classic fights in the history of WEC, Urijah Faber versus Jose Aldo. This time, however, it's Aldo's nearly undefeated phenom teammate, Renan Barao, who will be taking on the WEC legend "California Kid." In addition, one of the most coveted fighters outside UFC, Hector Lombard, will make his UFC debut against Tim Boetsch, who is coming off of a gigantic upset win against Yushin Okami.
Will Faber find a different outcome against Aldo's partner and will Lombard make a splash against a UFC-caliber underdog? We'll break down the numbers to find answers to those questions as we value the odds for Saturday night.
<center>Hector Lombard (minus-350) vs. Tim Boetsch (plus-290)
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The last time we saw Boetsch in the Octagon, he pulled off a stunning upset. After a nearly flawless second round for his opponent, Okami, Boetsch shifted the momentum in a split second, launching a barrage of clinch power strikes that led to the upset victory against the nearly 3-to-1 favorite Okami. Against Lombard, Boetsch' chance of pulling off another gigantic upset is no different. Though Lombard holds an impressive record outside UFC, the numbers tell us a different story about his ability when considering how he has performed against a higher level of competition in the past.
Because Lombard has received most of his fame by competing in the Bellator promotion, there isn't much in the way of a long record of statistics on which base an understanding of his true ability. However, when analyzing the numbers behind the two fights in which he received his only two career losses, we can understand a little bit more about how Lombard fares against higher-level competition.
Against Gegard Mousasi, who is arguably the best competitor Lombard has faced, Mousasi was able to land more than twice as many significant strikes, landing 36 to Lombard's 16. And if there is one thing we know about Lombard, it's that he prefers to finish opponents via knockout, earning 17 KO/TKO victories. In other words, there will be some heavy trading going on in this one. Thus, if there is even the slightest weakness in Lombard's stand-up game against a high level of competition, it isn't out of the question that Boetsch could have another giant upset in him on Saturday night. It would be hard to make Lombard such a heavy favorite with so little information, but it isn't difficult to take a chance on heavy underdog Boetsch given what we do know about him. With nearly 3-to-1 odds, Boetsch is a great value here against somewhat of an enigma in Lombard.
Insider's value pick: Boetsch
</center><center>Renan Barao (minus-190) vs. Urijah Faber (plus-165)
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Like his teammate Aldo, Barao is known for his exceptional stand-up ability, black belt jiu-jitsu submission skills and incredible takedown defense. Barao lands, on average, 4.3 Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM), has 13 career submission wins and boasts a nearly perfect 93 percent takedown defense. So what's not to like about Barao as a minus-190 favorite against Faber? The answer is that he might not be as similar to Aldo as you might think.
Though Barao has had his fair share of wins by KO/TKO (6-of-28 in his career) he doesn't possess nearly as dangerous stand-up skills as Aldo, who has finished 14 of 20 wins by KO/TKO. For Barao to take out Faber, it is likely he will have to rely on his superior submission game. This, however, will not be easy against a seasoned vet like Faber, who has never lost a fight by submission. In fact, if Faber has any advantage, it is in his great ability to beat opponents in the ground game; 14 of Faber's 26 wins have come by submission.
Barao might choose to keep the fight standing and get the best of Faber on the feet, which isn't out of the question given that Faber lands just 2.36 SLpM. However, with seven previous KO/TKOs under his belt, Faber definitely has the power to change the outcome of the fight with a single punch, putting Barao in some danger if he chooses to keep the fight off the ground. Though Barao does have an advantage standing, it isn't nearly as clear-cut as the one Aldo had against Faber. With neither fighter possessing a risk-free strategy in this matchup and with the odds solidly favoring the younger Barao, it seems as if the line is right where it should be for Saturday's main event.
Insider's value pick: Stay away
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Heavyweight fights always seem more difficult to predict, given the power possessed by fighters to change the outcome at any point. This is especially true when considering the matchup between Kongo and Jordan, who have a combined 19 career knockouts in 30 fights. To make matters worse, in deciphering which fighter possesses the advantage, the line has been set close to a coin flip, and Kongo and Jordan share similar statistics in nearly every fight-related category.
In the striking category, Kongo averages 3.63 SLpM and Jordan averages an almost equal 3.56. With the quantity of their striking being even, both land strikes at a nearly identical accuracy rate of 58 percent. Also, both fighters tend to land around two takedowns per 15 minutes and average less than a half-submission per 15 minutes.
The most significant similarity between the two is the number of fights that each has won by knockout, with Jordan winning 70 percent of his fights in this manner and Kongo winning 60 percent of his fights by KO/TKO. Though Kongo does possess a slight advantage in Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM), only taking 1.48 SApM compared to Jordan's much higher 3.84 SApM, this one will most likely come down to the quality of punches rather than the quantity. With the most probable outcome being a knockout finish, it's hard to say which fighter is going to get the best of that final exchange. For this reason, the public is right on in setting this one at nearly even odds, as it should be a more entertaining fight to watch than bet.
Insider value pick: Stay away
</center>If it wasn't for Ebersole having fought only a month ago, he would be a much higher favorite against Head, in a fight he has taken on short notice. Though taking a last-minute fight usually is a disadvantage, when you have the skill set of Ebersole versus an opponent with the credentials of Head, the lack of preparation time shouldn't matter as much as the public assumes.
Don't be fooled by the flamboyant fight-grooming antics of Ebersole. The stats paint more than a solid picture of the seriousness behind his skills. Since debuting in the UFC, Ebersole has won his past four fights against some of the bigger names in the welterweight division and has done so in impressive fashion. Ebersole's greatest strength is in his ground-and-pound ability, averaging 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and efficiently landing 2.14 strikes per minute. With a 79 percent takedown defense, it's rare that he ends up on his back and was able to successfully ward off a barrage of submission attacks against his last opponent, Anthony Waldburger.
Head, on thee other hand, has a 25 percent takedown defense since entering the UFC and only averages 0.83 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Thus, Ebersole should have no problem taking this fight to the ground and getting top position, which is where he'll likely want it to be. And with the only real danger for him being submission, Head poses a far weaker threat in this area than Waldburger, against whom Ebersole fended off four solid submission attempts for three rounds to gain the unanimous decision victory. Though the odds are set high, there is more than good reason for them, as Ebersole should be able to implement his game plan without any problems Saturday night.
Insider's value pick: Ebersole
</center>These two former TUF standouts are considered very close competitors heading into this matchup, with the line being set slightly in Ring's favor. This isn't a surprise as they competed in a very close two-round fight during their time on "The Ultimate Fighter." Though Ring got the best from the judges in their first match, when looking at the stats it's clear McGee has a much bigger advantage over Ring than the public is figuring, as McGee has built a more impressive career since debuting in the UFC.
Statistically, McGee seems to have an advantage in nearly every area. On average, Court has a much higher rate of production than Ring, landing 4.04 SLpM compared to Ring, who lands just 2.94 SLpM. McGee also historically has a more active ground game than Ring, landing 2.7 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Ring's 1.72 and averaging more submissions attempts per 15 minutes, 0.9 compared to Ring's 0.34.
However, despite the significant advantage that McGee has in all these categories, the one statistic that should determine the outcome of this fight is the disparity in the fighter's takedown defense. Ring has a very low 33 percent takedown defense rate, which should make it very easy for McGee to take this fight to the ground if he chooses. And with McGee never having lost a fight by KO/TKO or submission, it seems as if he has all the tools necessary to win via decision, simply by outworking Ring on the scorecards with his rate of production. With no apparent advantage for Ring in this fight, consider McGee a terrific value getting even odds at plus-100.
Insider's value pick: McGee
Lombard makes UFC debut, but value might be found with Boetsch
By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
UFC 149 will feature some of the most exciting fighters in MMA, though they won't be guys you've seen much of before in the Octagon.
For the most part, the major names Saturday night have gained their notoriety in other organizations. The main event will be reminiscent of one of the most classic fights in the history of WEC, Urijah Faber versus Jose Aldo. This time, however, it's Aldo's nearly undefeated phenom teammate, Renan Barao, who will be taking on the WEC legend "California Kid." In addition, one of the most coveted fighters outside UFC, Hector Lombard, will make his UFC debut against Tim Boetsch, who is coming off of a gigantic upset win against Yushin Okami.
Will Faber find a different outcome against Aldo's partner and will Lombard make a splash against a UFC-caliber underdog? We'll break down the numbers to find answers to those questions as we value the odds for Saturday night.
<center>Hector Lombard (minus-350) vs. Tim Boetsch (plus-290)
</center>
The last time we saw Boetsch in the Octagon, he pulled off a stunning upset. After a nearly flawless second round for his opponent, Okami, Boetsch shifted the momentum in a split second, launching a barrage of clinch power strikes that led to the upset victory against the nearly 3-to-1 favorite Okami. Against Lombard, Boetsch' chance of pulling off another gigantic upset is no different. Though Lombard holds an impressive record outside UFC, the numbers tell us a different story about his ability when considering how he has performed against a higher level of competition in the past.
Because Lombard has received most of his fame by competing in the Bellator promotion, there isn't much in the way of a long record of statistics on which base an understanding of his true ability. However, when analyzing the numbers behind the two fights in which he received his only two career losses, we can understand a little bit more about how Lombard fares against higher-level competition.
Against Gegard Mousasi, who is arguably the best competitor Lombard has faced, Mousasi was able to land more than twice as many significant strikes, landing 36 to Lombard's 16. And if there is one thing we know about Lombard, it's that he prefers to finish opponents via knockout, earning 17 KO/TKO victories. In other words, there will be some heavy trading going on in this one. Thus, if there is even the slightest weakness in Lombard's stand-up game against a high level of competition, it isn't out of the question that Boetsch could have another giant upset in him on Saturday night. It would be hard to make Lombard such a heavy favorite with so little information, but it isn't difficult to take a chance on heavy underdog Boetsch given what we do know about him. With nearly 3-to-1 odds, Boetsch is a great value here against somewhat of an enigma in Lombard.
Insider's value pick: Boetsch
<hr>
<center>Main event: Five rounds, UFC 149</center><center>Renan Barao (minus-190) vs. Urijah Faber (plus-165)
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Like his teammate Aldo, Barao is known for his exceptional stand-up ability, black belt jiu-jitsu submission skills and incredible takedown defense. Barao lands, on average, 4.3 Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM), has 13 career submission wins and boasts a nearly perfect 93 percent takedown defense. So what's not to like about Barao as a minus-190 favorite against Faber? The answer is that he might not be as similar to Aldo as you might think.
Though Barao has had his fair share of wins by KO/TKO (6-of-28 in his career) he doesn't possess nearly as dangerous stand-up skills as Aldo, who has finished 14 of 20 wins by KO/TKO. For Barao to take out Faber, it is likely he will have to rely on his superior submission game. This, however, will not be easy against a seasoned vet like Faber, who has never lost a fight by submission. In fact, if Faber has any advantage, it is in his great ability to beat opponents in the ground game; 14 of Faber's 26 wins have come by submission.
Barao might choose to keep the fight standing and get the best of Faber on the feet, which isn't out of the question given that Faber lands just 2.36 SLpM. However, with seven previous KO/TKOs under his belt, Faber definitely has the power to change the outcome of the fight with a single punch, putting Barao in some danger if he chooses to keep the fight off the ground. Though Barao does have an advantage standing, it isn't nearly as clear-cut as the one Aldo had against Faber. With neither fighter possessing a risk-free strategy in this matchup and with the odds solidly favoring the younger Barao, it seems as if the line is right where it should be for Saturday's main event.
Insider's value pick: Stay away
<hr>
<center> Shawn Jordan (minus-125) vs. Cheick Kongo (plus-105)</center>
Heavyweight fights always seem more difficult to predict, given the power possessed by fighters to change the outcome at any point. This is especially true when considering the matchup between Kongo and Jordan, who have a combined 19 career knockouts in 30 fights. To make matters worse, in deciphering which fighter possesses the advantage, the line has been set close to a coin flip, and Kongo and Jordan share similar statistics in nearly every fight-related category.
In the striking category, Kongo averages 3.63 SLpM and Jordan averages an almost equal 3.56. With the quantity of their striking being even, both land strikes at a nearly identical accuracy rate of 58 percent. Also, both fighters tend to land around two takedowns per 15 minutes and average less than a half-submission per 15 minutes.
The most significant similarity between the two is the number of fights that each has won by knockout, with Jordan winning 70 percent of his fights in this manner and Kongo winning 60 percent of his fights by KO/TKO. Though Kongo does possess a slight advantage in Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM), only taking 1.48 SApM compared to Jordan's much higher 3.84 SApM, this one will most likely come down to the quality of punches rather than the quantity. With the most probable outcome being a knockout finish, it's hard to say which fighter is going to get the best of that final exchange. For this reason, the public is right on in setting this one at nearly even odds, as it should be a more entertaining fight to watch than bet.
Insider value pick: Stay away
<hr>
<center> Brian Ebersole (minus-355) vs. James Head (plus-285) </center>If it wasn't for Ebersole having fought only a month ago, he would be a much higher favorite against Head, in a fight he has taken on short notice. Though taking a last-minute fight usually is a disadvantage, when you have the skill set of Ebersole versus an opponent with the credentials of Head, the lack of preparation time shouldn't matter as much as the public assumes.
Don't be fooled by the flamboyant fight-grooming antics of Ebersole. The stats paint more than a solid picture of the seriousness behind his skills. Since debuting in the UFC, Ebersole has won his past four fights against some of the bigger names in the welterweight division and has done so in impressive fashion. Ebersole's greatest strength is in his ground-and-pound ability, averaging 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and efficiently landing 2.14 strikes per minute. With a 79 percent takedown defense, it's rare that he ends up on his back and was able to successfully ward off a barrage of submission attacks against his last opponent, Anthony Waldburger.
Head, on thee other hand, has a 25 percent takedown defense since entering the UFC and only averages 0.83 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Thus, Ebersole should have no problem taking this fight to the ground and getting top position, which is where he'll likely want it to be. And with the only real danger for him being submission, Head poses a far weaker threat in this area than Waldburger, against whom Ebersole fended off four solid submission attempts for three rounds to gain the unanimous decision victory. Though the odds are set high, there is more than good reason for them, as Ebersole should be able to implement his game plan without any problems Saturday night.
Insider's value pick: Ebersole
<hr>
<center>Nick Ring (minus-140) vs. Court McGee (plus-100) </center>These two former TUF standouts are considered very close competitors heading into this matchup, with the line being set slightly in Ring's favor. This isn't a surprise as they competed in a very close two-round fight during their time on "The Ultimate Fighter." Though Ring got the best from the judges in their first match, when looking at the stats it's clear McGee has a much bigger advantage over Ring than the public is figuring, as McGee has built a more impressive career since debuting in the UFC.
Statistically, McGee seems to have an advantage in nearly every area. On average, Court has a much higher rate of production than Ring, landing 4.04 SLpM compared to Ring, who lands just 2.94 SLpM. McGee also historically has a more active ground game than Ring, landing 2.7 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Ring's 1.72 and averaging more submissions attempts per 15 minutes, 0.9 compared to Ring's 0.34.
However, despite the significant advantage that McGee has in all these categories, the one statistic that should determine the outcome of this fight is the disparity in the fighter's takedown defense. Ring has a very low 33 percent takedown defense rate, which should make it very easy for McGee to take this fight to the ground if he chooses. And with McGee never having lost a fight by KO/TKO or submission, it seems as if he has all the tools necessary to win via decision, simply by outworking Ring on the scorecards with his rate of production. With no apparent advantage for Ring in this fight, consider McGee a terrific value getting even odds at plus-100.
Insider's value pick: McGee
