The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - July 21, 2012 - YTD: 233-223-23

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 233-223-23, -$1,505 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

2-2 day yesterday, which unfortunately doesn’t tell the whole story, as I was 100-percent right on three of the four starting pitching matchups, as usual. I mean, Nolasco vs Correia over 8.5 was 4-3 in the fifth inning, but just with my usual luck, I couldn’t get anything out of either bullpen the entire game, even with the Marlins having first and third in the ninth with one out and Jose Reyes up (You know if I had the under in this game, the bullpens would have immediately given it up), which is especially disheartening when one of said bullpens, that being Miami’s, regularly gets tagged. About even for the day anyway so it means nothing in the grand landscape of it all, other than me taking each game with personal pride, so let’s just move on to what could be a very promising Saturday…


Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet) - $83 for $80
Jason Vargas vs Alex Cobb
OVER 7.5/8 ($58 for $55 on O7.5, $25 for $25 on O8)

Little bit of a fishy line, but I’ll gladly take the bait, as I had a strong vibe on the over well before I even saw the line (For newer readers, I always examine each pitching matchup in great depth BEFORE looking at the lines; it’s a technique I highly recommend because if you look at them simultaneously, the number can greatly affect your opinion rather than focusing on the actual pitchers involved, which won’t lead to any consistent success. Trust me). I don’t see what Vegas’ fascination with Alex Cobb is all about - simply put, the guy is just a very hittable pitcher who allows a lot of baserunners (1.41 WHIP) and doesn’t record many strikeouts. That’s obviously not a recipe for being able to thrive consistently, yet the lines usually seem lower than they should be whenever he takes the mound. I’ve been saying this since I watched a couple of his starts last year - Alex Cobb pans out as nothing more than a serviceable bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher, and given Seattle’s recent offensive surge, not to mention being significantly better against right-handers than left-handers, this appears to be a spot where the Marinerscan continue their hot scoring ways (35 runs in their last 5 games... Alex Cobb is going to put a complete stop to that? How?) and put a crooked number on the scoreboard.

Without question, the line being as low as it is probably has more to do with the opposing starter in this game, that being the somewhat underrated Jason Vargas, who I’ve always classified as just a very nice pitcher to have in your rotation. He’s also usually consistent, as evident in him registering 13 quality starts out of his 20 total starts this season, which is about on par with a solid quality start percentage that he has maintained throughout his career. However, we’re taking the over here, and despite my kind words towards the Mariners’ southpaw, there is still good reasoning in the belief that he can contribute considerably to this over. The most important split stat concerning Vargas, as has been throughout his seven year career, is that he’s always been much worse on the road than at home. In fact, for his career, there’s almost a full two-run difference in his ERA (5.33 compared to 3.59), and that trend has continued significantly in 2012, as his road numbers (5.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) fall well short of his home performance (2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP). Vargas has produced four consecutive starts allowing three runs or less, and I believe he’s due to at least give up a few runs here in Tampa. After all, that may be all we need, so long as Cobb does his part in getting hounded, and if that’s the case, my envisioned 6-2/7-2 outcome will come to fruition.


Other 7/21 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Matt Garza vs Jake Westbrook OVER 8 - $46 for $40
Carlos Zambrano vs AJ Burnett UNDER 8 - $38 for $35
Ben Sheets vs Edwin Jackson UNDER 8 - $21 for $20


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Should also have a write-up for Chris Tillman vs Zach McAllister over 9, and perhaps one for Phil Hughes vs Jarrod Parker over, when the line drops to 7)
 

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I would like your thoughts on the Twins under? I saw pinnacle was 10 with the juice to the under and now they are sitting 9 about even. I'm down at 9.5 (-1.05), the reasoning I'm asking other than totals being your thing is that I might want to add to the wager. Thanks and good luck today.
 
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I would like your thoughts on the Twins under? I saw pinnacle was 10 with the juice to the under and now they are sitting 9 about even. I'm down at 9.5 (-1.05), the reasoning I'm asking other than totals being your thing is that I might want to add to the wager. Thanks and good luck today.

No problem. This goes out to everyone and I'll start posting this in my first post every day: If you have a question or want some advice on any over/under of any day, feel free to ask me at any time, because even the ones I don't bet on, I still study and formulate some kind of vibe on it.

As is in the case with Scott Diamond vs Luis Mendoza under, I'd lean on it, due to the high line, but that's a strategy I don't prefer to usually go with, as that's more of a case of the higher-than-expected line dictating my opinion on the game, rather than the actual pitching matchup itself. On the contrary, Scott Diamond, just as I wrote about him in my thread before his very first start of the season (When he shut out the Angels on the road and beat Dan Haren), has always had promise in my eyes, and is taking full advantage of his first real opportunity as a Major League starter. Therefore, his success isn't much of a surprise to me and I don't see how he can't keep it up. When all is said and done, his ERA will still end up somewhere in the 3's, which is very nice for him. He's also been mostly consistent, which indicates he could continue that today, especially since he dominated these same Royals over eight innings less than a month ago.

As for Luis Mendoza, I've always been biased with him. As a lifelong Rangers fan, I vividly remember this guy floundering in our rotation over the 2007/2008 era, but I never gave up on him and always had hope he could get another shot. He's actually been real solid in his Kansas City tenure, especially at the end of last year when he was nothing short of marvelous. At the current moment, it appears he's entered a string of fine pitching, although the one worrisome trend I would take into consideration is that he's actually been significantly worse at home this year than on the road. I didn't have a real feel for this game, which is why I'm not taking it, but if you were to bet it, I'd recommend a smaller amount, as Twins/Royals games have the tendency to be high scoring no matter who's pitching, and 6-5 is certainly possible as a result.
 
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Looks like a fine 1-0 start to this Saturday. For those that are thinking about tailing me the rest of the day, please consider the fact that the last time I took 8 over/unders on a Saturday (I plan on posting more; I have 8 total in mind), I literally had an 8-0 day, and that was back on 4/21 (Ironically, my best bet that day was the Humber vs Beavan perfect game, which was on that 8-0 perfect day of mine).

In the meantime, adding:

Yu Darvish vs Ervin Santana UNDER 8.5 - $21 for $20
Was hoping this one would reach 9, but it never did, which is something we can use to our advantage. Aside from the fact that I had a clear under vibe, it appears Vegas does as well by not giving in and setting the line at 9, which is pretty interesting considering the very erratic Ervin Santana is involved. You'd think that against the best lineup in all of baseball, Vegas would account for that more appropriately, as Santana has showed little signs of turning his woeful 2012 season around. That, and perhaps they feel Darvish will get back on track and have one of his trademark stand-out starts, after getting pounded by the Mariners in his last outing. He handled the Angels' bats well in his two outings against them earlier this season.
 
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Didn't get around to doing anymore write-ups since I'm at work but here's the rest of my card for now:

Tillman vs McAllister OVER 9 - $49 for $45
Delgado vs Lannan OVER 8.5 - $25 for $25

Would also lean on Gallardo vs Arroyo over 8. And I'm still waiting for Hughes vs Parker to drop to 7.
 

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