Sunday: Three Plays, High Juice YTD: 267-238, + 59 units

ofred · Jul 22, 2012

Saturday: 4-2, +1.8 units. Santana is truly messed up. It'll be interesting to see if he starts his next game.

These 3 top plays are all heavy favorites. I can see why, but I don't like to play this many high juice games all on one day. After looking into them, I can't find a reason to drop any one of them. But first…

Baltimore: ML(+129). One unit. Familiarity with a pitcher is one of the best indicators of whether a batter is able to hit a certain pitcher. The Orioles know Josh Tomlin enough to hit .337 career wise against him in about 90 ABs. Also, the O's seem to be breaking out of their slump. The Indians are struggling in the past week and though Britton got beat fairly well by the Twins last game, he has good stuff, pitched well at AAA, and second games can be the difference makers. The Indians also hit lefties at a .223 pace.

BoutMyMoney · Jul 22, 2012

on them as well. gl bro

ofred · Jul 22, 2012

Arizona:3 units RL
Arizona: 1 unit ML. Houston playing in Arizona is almost like a perfect storm. Their club has been denuded by management(now their closer is gone), and some of the guys left on this team are there as bodies to fill up the roster. I can honestly say there are only about 2 or 3 hitters left that would start on some of the better teams in the NL. Jordan Lyles is only 21, and good for such a young age, but at 21, he is showing the signs of wear and tear and losing…A LOT. The D-Backs have only faced him for 21 ABs, but have 11 hits. Lyles is also much worse on the road and facing a team that is starting to hit well again. Last 17 IPs, 26 hits, 14 runs and 4 HRs. The Diamondbacks have easily won the past 2 games, and have only allowed some late inning runs at garbage time, with garbage time relievers. Collmenter is drastically different than Miley. He comes from the right side with a weird delivery that makes the ball look like it's coming out of his ear. Though he only pitches 86-88, his fastball is deceptively hard to pick up. With the same motion he throws his change up and curve. Collmenter has been very effective in his last starts because he is impossible to prepare for. Once again, familiarity is not on the Astros side. The Astros BP is further eroded with Myers being dealt.

ofred · Jul 22, 2012

NYY: One unit.ML
NYY: Two units RL. The Yankees have lost 3 one run games to the A's, but I have a feeling they'll make up for it tomorrow. They are very familiar with Colon and his 2 pitch repertoire. And Colon has been pitching the same for the past many years. Career wise: Jeter: .385, A-Rod, .449 (these 2 have many ABs vs. Colon), Texteira, .285 with 3 HRs in 35 ABs, Ibanez, .293, Swisher,.500, and Wise, Martin and Jones combined 5-11. Sabathia has dominated the A's going back the past 3 years, rarely gives up the long ball and has impeccable command. Remember, the Yankees were killing it before coming west. They have faced some new and tough pitching, but they are a good hitting road team and I expect Sunday we'll see that. And also, the A's are not really hitting well, just enough to win the past 3 days. They weren't hitting well before that (except in Minnesota).

ofred · Jul 22, 2012

Tampa: 3 units-1. The Mariners somehow managed to squeak out a win Saturday. But for some reason they are hitting terribly again. They have 32 Ks in their past 2 games, though one went extra innings. In that extra inning game, I don't think they even had a base runner for the last 6 innings. Ugh. I have seen the M's like this before and they have to change their venue to break out of it. And that was against Cobb and Shields, and some relievers- the 2 starters both pitching terribly lately (until now). The Mariners have kept these game close because Vargas and Iwakuma(surprisingly) pitched well. Iwakuma probably because he is unfamiliar, and Vargas because he loves pitching in pitcher's parks. Mariner relievers also pitched over their heads. Now comes Blake Beavan. He is the perfect pitcher to break out of a funk with. He throws his fastball very straight and very often, but must rely on great command, which lately has not been there. His off speed stuff is below average. By the 3rd-5th innings hitters start to hit him. Moore hasn't been on his game, but is likely to have a great outing tomorrow. He still possesses good stuff, if not great command. He has also had to pitch against some tough hitting teams of late. The Rays BP will be able to help him finish.

ofred · Jul 22, 2012

KC/ Minnesota; Hoping to get 10 for the over. One unit. Deduno doesn't know where his pitches are going, and Jeremy Guthrie now returns to the league with the DH. Not good. KC has been hitting well, and the Twins are capable. Twins BP also will likely come into play to give up some runs.

BORO · Jul 22, 2012

Nice job yesterday and good luck today.

BOBBYW · Jul 22, 2012

powerz · Jul 22, 2012

Gl today Fred. Always stop by for a read gotta remember to say thanks more often

mokoman · Jul 22, 2012

Good luck today fred! Your an asset to this forum,like your writeups!

HuskerBury · Jul 22, 2012

On that Rays game myself, Seattle is averaging 2.4 runs in dome games.... gotta run with the Rays today! Nice write ups sir, very insightful!

ofred · Jul 22, 2012

Thank you to everyone for the encouraging remarks. All of the high juice games either went higher or stayed about the same.

Had to take the 10.5 on the KC/ Minn. over. One unit. No faith in either pitcher.

HuskerBury · Jul 22, 2012

GL Fred!

Bet10Heinekens · Jul 22, 2012

good luck, your plays looks solid

you not worry about Collmenter, he's not the same pitcher from last year:>(

ofred · Jul 22, 2012

Colorado/SD: over 25.5 H+R+E for one unit. Have won my last 2 at Petco and I like this because Friedrich and Ohlendorf are likely to give up many hits, though may pitch out of some jams at times. They both can give up the long ball too. Tired bullpens from last night's extra innings and both starters might be asked to go longer than they should- which could lead to some middle inning runs. Both teams are hitting fairly well, especially SD at home- which is rare for them.

moocow · Jul 22, 2012

What you think of yanks over 4.5 at even monies?

HuskerBury · Jul 22, 2012

What we thinking of the TB game so far?

ofred · Jul 22, 2012

moocow said:
What you think of yanks over 4.5 at even monies?

Yanks could cover that considering their history with Colon. But this could also be a Sabathia gem at 3-0 or 4-1 type game.

moocow · Jul 22, 2012

Cool gonna roll the dice at even monies. Yanks do know Colon well. GL today fred

JDeuce · Jul 22, 2012

Very unlucky on the Rays, Fred. You were dead on about the Mariners offense struggling, but this TB offense is just God awful right now. Thank God I reduced my juice by playing the Rays RL.

Love the Yanks and DBacks picks...let's get em.