2012 MLB O/U Record: 236-228-24, -$1,608 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, disappointing 3-5-1 day to say the least, as I took a season-high nine over/unders yesterday, trying to capture some of that magic I had exactly three months to the day when I posted the ultra-rare 8-0 perfect day on 4/21. In my defense, at least when it comes to yesterday’s best bet Vargas vs Cobb over 7.5, I really wasn’t given a fair opportunity, as it looked like a lock early on with Alex Cobb getting smacked around, before Cobb was literally smacked - by a line drive that knocked him out of the game in the second. He was floundering up to that point, having given up two runs in the first and multiple hits and walks throughout those first two frames, so with him out of the picture, aka the main reason why I took that bet, that’s when the trouble started for that over, and just my luck, the Rays’ horrific bullpen (Joel Peralta has single-handedly cost me three of my biggest unders this year) somehow shut out the hot-hitting Mariners over the last seven innings. Whatever, let’s just move on to this Sunday, as I have a trifecta of solid unders with some of my trademark pitchers that I know extremely well…
Blake Beavan vs Matt Moore UNDER 8 - $41 for $35
I was going to put more on this game, only to find out that for some reason, my sportsbook lowered it to 7.5. Let that sink in: A pitching matchup featuring a guy with a 6+ ERA and someone who has spent the last several weeks in Triple-A is getting the 7.5 treatment, and it’s not like he’s facing a Clayton Kershaw-type pitcher; it’s Matt Moore. Of course, we know better than the general consensus, which would probably label the extremely underrated Blake Beavan as an “average pitcher,” and that’s something Vegas is clearly trying to take advantage of from the general public. In addition, they may also place Moore in the same category, as he has fallen short of his mega expectations thus far in his 2012 campaign, but if you’ve actually watched him like I have, you’d know he still possesses the same dominant stuff he displayed in his impressive debut last year - and he will continue to display it for many years throughout a wildly successful big-league career. To me, it’s inevitable that Matt Moore becomes a star, as I’ve been saying all year. Let me put it this way: This is as good an opportunity you will have at buying good pitchers low. Regular readers know my obsession with Blake Beavan, who was my No. 1 sleeper coming into this season, and it was well warranted. He was terrific last year, and other than a poor run that led to him being sent down (Which, by the way, wasn’t all his fault; he was hit by a lined rive in May that maybe stunted his growth, confidence, and mindset), Beavan has shown he can still be a very good pitcher. He was wonderful in his Triple-A stint and it’s clear he’s on the way back up to relevance - same with Moore, except he’s grinding his way towards stardom, which Beavan may also be at one day.
Jordan Lyles vs Josh Collmenter UNDER 9.5 - $46 for $40
Again, an intriguing line movement set forth by Vegas, as this one currently sits at 9… why?? Do they forget that they had a much superior pitching matchup from the other night in Arizona, Bud Norris vs Trevor Cahill, was also 9? I mean, think about that. Bud Norris is obviously well ahead of teammate Jordan Lyles, while Trevor Cahill is a much more respected and renowned pitcher than fellow Diamondback righty Josh Collmenter. Yet, they get the same exact line? That, my friends, is a fishy deal. However, it also means they clearly agree with me in anticipating some sort of under. Collmenter is a guy I became a fan of last year with his tremendous season, not to mention his striking similar physical looks to Mike Hampton (Ode to the 2009 Astros), and I pinpointed that remarkable re-emergence he had into the Arizona rotation when he dueled withYovani Gallardo a few Sundays ago. Now, he’s back with the demotion of wild-man Trevor Bauer, and as he showed in that start versus Milwaukee, when he gets that opportunity to start again, he runs with it, and Collmenter draws a very nice matchup with the Astros in his first outing as a starter again. Mentally, he has to be feeling good. As for Jordan Lyles, I was starting to become a fan of him when he put together a nice string of three or four consecutive starts six weeks ago. He’s fallen off that pace, but I still think he’s a fine kid with a future in this league. This is a spot where I think he’ll outpitch his other teammates that threw in this series and give us a serviceable effort, one that could contribute to an under with the line as high as it is.
Nathan Eovaldi vs Jon Niese UNDER 8 -$42 for $40
Interesting fact: Nathan Eovaldi has made nine starts this year, NONE OF WHICH resulting in more than eight total runs being scored! Actually, I hate trends like that because usually when you discover a really odd trend like that, the Law of Averages usually kicks into play and goes the other way. Even so, you have to like how Eovaldi has re-turned his season around. After an impressive start (Which was no surprise to me, given his underrated 2011 performance) that saw him register a quality start in each of his first five outings, Eovaldi underwent a bit of a tailspin, giving up 13 runs over his next two. However, the Dodger right-hander has overcome that to record quality starts in his last two efforts, including a very impressive statement game in which he hurled six innings giving up only one run in Arizona, which is awfully tough to do. Having surpassed his struggles, I think Eovaldi can keep it up, and while he did surrender five runs in his previous start against the Mets a few weeks ago, that was mostly the product of one bad inning - he was cruising up till that point. Speaking of cruising, you could easily apply that term to the overall season Jon Niese is having for the Mets. Entering play today with a 7-4 record, 3.58 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an impressive 99 Ks in 110 IP, Niese has easily made a case for truly being one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball. I don’t consider him in the highest regard, but his stats, in which he picked up where he left off with a marvelous 2011 campaign, indicate otherwise. Niese had his worst performanceof the year two starts ago, when he was hammered for seven runs against the Cubs, but bounced back nicely in his last assignment, minimizing the tough Nationals’ bats to one run and three hits over seven innings, while striking out eight. That tells me that Niese has forgotten about that bad Cubs start, and considering six of his past eight starts have seen him give up two runs orless, it’s safe to say he’s still in his rhythm right now. Let’s just hope the Mets don’t tag Eovaldi late in this game like they did a few weeks ago.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Also recommend Humber vs Turner over 10, as my absolute worst-case scenario for that game is 5-4, but since that’s a very likely scenario, I’m backing off from it)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, disappointing 3-5-1 day to say the least, as I took a season-high nine over/unders yesterday, trying to capture some of that magic I had exactly three months to the day when I posted the ultra-rare 8-0 perfect day on 4/21. In my defense, at least when it comes to yesterday’s best bet Vargas vs Cobb over 7.5, I really wasn’t given a fair opportunity, as it looked like a lock early on with Alex Cobb getting smacked around, before Cobb was literally smacked - by a line drive that knocked him out of the game in the second. He was floundering up to that point, having given up two runs in the first and multiple hits and walks throughout those first two frames, so with him out of the picture, aka the main reason why I took that bet, that’s when the trouble started for that over, and just my luck, the Rays’ horrific bullpen (Joel Peralta has single-handedly cost me three of my biggest unders this year) somehow shut out the hot-hitting Mariners over the last seven innings. Whatever, let’s just move on to this Sunday, as I have a trifecta of solid unders with some of my trademark pitchers that I know extremely well…
Blake Beavan vs Matt Moore UNDER 8 - $41 for $35
I was going to put more on this game, only to find out that for some reason, my sportsbook lowered it to 7.5. Let that sink in: A pitching matchup featuring a guy with a 6+ ERA and someone who has spent the last several weeks in Triple-A is getting the 7.5 treatment, and it’s not like he’s facing a Clayton Kershaw-type pitcher; it’s Matt Moore. Of course, we know better than the general consensus, which would probably label the extremely underrated Blake Beavan as an “average pitcher,” and that’s something Vegas is clearly trying to take advantage of from the general public. In addition, they may also place Moore in the same category, as he has fallen short of his mega expectations thus far in his 2012 campaign, but if you’ve actually watched him like I have, you’d know he still possesses the same dominant stuff he displayed in his impressive debut last year - and he will continue to display it for many years throughout a wildly successful big-league career. To me, it’s inevitable that Matt Moore becomes a star, as I’ve been saying all year. Let me put it this way: This is as good an opportunity you will have at buying good pitchers low. Regular readers know my obsession with Blake Beavan, who was my No. 1 sleeper coming into this season, and it was well warranted. He was terrific last year, and other than a poor run that led to him being sent down (Which, by the way, wasn’t all his fault; he was hit by a lined rive in May that maybe stunted his growth, confidence, and mindset), Beavan has shown he can still be a very good pitcher. He was wonderful in his Triple-A stint and it’s clear he’s on the way back up to relevance - same with Moore, except he’s grinding his way towards stardom, which Beavan may also be at one day.
Jordan Lyles vs Josh Collmenter UNDER 9.5 - $46 for $40
Again, an intriguing line movement set forth by Vegas, as this one currently sits at 9… why?? Do they forget that they had a much superior pitching matchup from the other night in Arizona, Bud Norris vs Trevor Cahill, was also 9? I mean, think about that. Bud Norris is obviously well ahead of teammate Jordan Lyles, while Trevor Cahill is a much more respected and renowned pitcher than fellow Diamondback righty Josh Collmenter. Yet, they get the same exact line? That, my friends, is a fishy deal. However, it also means they clearly agree with me in anticipating some sort of under. Collmenter is a guy I became a fan of last year with his tremendous season, not to mention his striking similar physical looks to Mike Hampton (Ode to the 2009 Astros), and I pinpointed that remarkable re-emergence he had into the Arizona rotation when he dueled withYovani Gallardo a few Sundays ago. Now, he’s back with the demotion of wild-man Trevor Bauer, and as he showed in that start versus Milwaukee, when he gets that opportunity to start again, he runs with it, and Collmenter draws a very nice matchup with the Astros in his first outing as a starter again. Mentally, he has to be feeling good. As for Jordan Lyles, I was starting to become a fan of him when he put together a nice string of three or four consecutive starts six weeks ago. He’s fallen off that pace, but I still think he’s a fine kid with a future in this league. This is a spot where I think he’ll outpitch his other teammates that threw in this series and give us a serviceable effort, one that could contribute to an under with the line as high as it is.
Nathan Eovaldi vs Jon Niese UNDER 8 -$42 for $40
Interesting fact: Nathan Eovaldi has made nine starts this year, NONE OF WHICH resulting in more than eight total runs being scored! Actually, I hate trends like that because usually when you discover a really odd trend like that, the Law of Averages usually kicks into play and goes the other way. Even so, you have to like how Eovaldi has re-turned his season around. After an impressive start (Which was no surprise to me, given his underrated 2011 performance) that saw him register a quality start in each of his first five outings, Eovaldi underwent a bit of a tailspin, giving up 13 runs over his next two. However, the Dodger right-hander has overcome that to record quality starts in his last two efforts, including a very impressive statement game in which he hurled six innings giving up only one run in Arizona, which is awfully tough to do. Having surpassed his struggles, I think Eovaldi can keep it up, and while he did surrender five runs in his previous start against the Mets a few weeks ago, that was mostly the product of one bad inning - he was cruising up till that point. Speaking of cruising, you could easily apply that term to the overall season Jon Niese is having for the Mets. Entering play today with a 7-4 record, 3.58 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an impressive 99 Ks in 110 IP, Niese has easily made a case for truly being one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball. I don’t consider him in the highest regard, but his stats, in which he picked up where he left off with a marvelous 2011 campaign, indicate otherwise. Niese had his worst performanceof the year two starts ago, when he was hammered for seven runs against the Cubs, but bounced back nicely in his last assignment, minimizing the tough Nationals’ bats to one run and three hits over seven innings, while striking out eight. That tells me that Niese has forgotten about that bad Cubs start, and considering six of his past eight starts have seen him give up two runs orless, it’s safe to say he’s still in his rhythm right now. Let’s just hope the Mets don’t tag Eovaldi late in this game like they did a few weeks ago.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Also recommend Humber vs Turner over 10, as my absolute worst-case scenario for that game is 5-4, but since that’s a very likely scenario, I’m backing off from it)
