Monday: The Grind YTD: 271-242, + 57.1 units

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

Sunday: 4-4, -1.9 units. It happened. The Yankees and Red Sox both get swept, favored in all 7 games. Makes me want to tread lightly in this part of the season. Baseball is a grind and trying to find winners is too.

SF: -1. 3 units. Vogelsong is almost unbelievable at home, and in general. Never pitches poorly, pitches just as well full wind up or stretch. Plus this Padres lineup has not seen him almost to a man. The Giants hit lefties well and have seen Clayton Richards many, many times. That familiarity thing. The Padres hit fairly well vs. some dreadful Houston, Rockies pitching- although Happ, Harrell and Friedrich all stymied them pretty well- so they're not exactly hot. Vogelsong is the best starter by far they've seen in a week. The Giants winning 2 out of 3 in Philly and Atlanta has got to help their confidence, and hit Hamels and Wandy lately, 2 lefties.

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

Arizona: RL. Two units. J. Sanchez against this lineup hitting very well at home is almost a crime. He is consistently going to 3-0 and 3-1 counts and then serving it up. Sanchez's troubles started last year in June and has not been the same pitcher since. This year he has had a few good starts, but none lately, and he seems like a guy whose head isn't right. KC couldn't take it anymore so they traded him for Guthrie. Talk about a trading trash, this is it. I'd bet this up more but don't know if Ian Kennedy will also get lit up. The Rockies could do it. The TT in the morning might be my big play. Hope it's 5. And the D-Backs are killing lefty pitching at a .280 clip. And 32 extra base hits in their last 7 games, including 20 2Bs and 11 HRs.

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

Cubs: ML. One unit. Pirates have definitely cooled down and Samardjzia(can't spell this guys name) has had success vs. the Pirates. I have very little faith in Bedard although his last outing was good. The Cubs had a rough series in STL, but were playing well before that. Hoping to catch the Pirates napping with a good pitcher they haven't seen much of.

powerz · Jul 23, 2012

Are you laying off Houston b/c they are home again?

FWIW - NL Favs -150 and rising are 5-0 this year covering the RL in 4. If the line goes to the 160's 5-2, covering the RL in 4. I think the Reds -1.5 is worth a few sheckels would love your opinion.

Powerz

Bet10Heinekens · Jul 23, 2012

o fred said:
Cubs: ML. One unit. Pirates have definitely cooled down and Samardjzia(can't spell this guys name) has had success vs. the Pirates. I have very little faith in Bedard although his last outing was good. The Cubs had a rough series in STL, but were playing well before that. Hoping to catch the Pirates napping with a good pitcher they haven't seen much of.

pitching advantage with the Scrubs tonight, but I think Pirates will find a way to win

Bedard era is lower at home vs pitching on the road, Scrubs a bad road team

Bet10Heinekens · Jul 23, 2012

Bedard already shutdown the Cubs at PNC Park this year

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

powerz said:
Are you laying off Houston b/c they are home again?

FWIW - NL Favs -150 and rising are 5-0 this year covering the RL in 4. If the line goes to the 160's 5-2, covering the RL in 4. I think the Reds -1.5 is worth a few sheckels would love your opinion.

Powerz

Because of a change in venue sometimes teams play better or worse. Look at the Yanks in Oakland. Or Toronto in Boston. Wandy is capable of pitching a strong game and the Reds aren't exactly hitting lately. Votto still out. Latos had been pitching well, but not last 2 starts. I am laying off, but I certainly wouldn't be taking Houston.

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

Arizona TT. One unit.

THEDIRTYHUSTLER · Jul 23, 2012

o fred said:
Because of a change in venue sometimes teams play better or worse. Look at the Yanks in Oakland. Or Toronto in Boston. Wandy is capable of pitching a strong game and the Reds aren't exactly hitting lately. Votto still out. Latos had been pitching well, but not last 2 starts. I am laying off, but I certainly wouldn't be taking Houston.

That is spot on!

powerz · Jul 23, 2012

powerz said:
Are you laying off Houston b/c they are home again?

FWIW - NL Favs -150 and rising are 5-0 this year covering the RL in 4. If the line goes to the 160's 5-2, covering the RL in 4. I think the Reds -1.5 is worth a few sheckels would love your opinion.

Powerz

Thanks for the response - I noticed in my notes it should read - NL road teams.....

Reds 5-1 since Votto went down although all games at home, coming off a sweep of the Brew crew. Hitting Avg and Runs per game have not changed from the season avg in the last 6 games, OBP is down a bit.
For sure Votto is a big bat in that line up, but looks like they are remaining consistent. Your input gave me some food for thought to check those stats, I am going to give them a try, along with SF and Ariz.

GLT and thanks for the posts

Powerz

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

Going against Houston the rest of the year, as they strip down their team, is a money maker. I'll be looking at this each day.

STL-1/2. First 5 IP. One unit. Dodgers swept the Mets but much of the damage was vs. 41 year old Batista and a dreadful Met's BP(which is why the Mets will likely not go far). They haven't seen kelly yet, who is a pretty good sinkerballer. Sinker pitchers usually keep new opponents beating the ball into the ground for a number of innings before they adjust. Kelly has been an excellent 5 inning pitcher too. Billingsley is coming off the DL with elbow inflammation in which he didn't notify the club he was hurting until right before his last start. Mattingly was not pleased and furthers the notion that Billingsley is a head case. Also, with elbow inflammation pitchers tend to go light on the off speed pitches that torque the elbow. Cards are starting to hit at home(finally) and hit RHP well this year. Also, the heat is something that Billingsley is not used to. The Dodgers BP is better than the Cards, but not much better lately.

STL -1. One unit.

HuskerBury · Jul 23, 2012

Great write ups fred, thinking about a unit on the Giants everything about that game yells winner. But after getting raped yesterday, gonna take it slow for a bit.... but nice work as usual sir.

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

o fred said:
Arizona TT. One unit.

Make that Arizona TT over 5 for 2 units. I guess this is a hedge if Kennedy also gets hit hard. I also think the Royals might have gotten the best of this deal. Guthrie getting out of Coors might make a difference for him. Sanchez pitches increasingly worse no matter where he pitches. Pitching in hitter friendly Chase Field vs. the D-Backs who have been hitting very well for about a week isn't the way to get it together. The D-Backs lead the majors in BAA vs. lefties.

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

Washington-1. One unit.(large) Zimmerman has been very impressive like Vogelsong. Almost never a bad start and has pitched well in the past 2 months, twice vs. Mets, vs. NYY, in Fenway, twice Rockies. almost no HRs and walks very few. i also like big tall Chris Young for the Mets, but he is basically a 5-6 inning pitcher and then the Mets BP has to save the day. They were messed up pretty bad this past week. The Nats BP had that one bad game when they blew the big lead, but have been solid all year. The Nats' bats are also starting to pick up.

Bet10Heinekens · Jul 23, 2012

yep, Zimmerman has been very good, .47 era and .737 whip his last 3 starts

imp:

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

LAA: -1/2 1.5 units. First 5 innings.
LAA: RL. 1.5 units. That's 3 units total. The Angels have been struggling vs. right-handed pitching the past 2 weeks- losing to Darvish, Fister and Scherzer. But they have been eating up lefties like Holland and Harrison- and Harrison is damn tough. The Angels have also 35 extra bases in their past 7 games, showing the great gap hitting and power. Good speed too. Bruce Chen is a lefty who has been just awful his past 4 starts. Like the old Bruce Chen used to be. Is that old Bruce Chen returning? Anyways, the Royals have also lost their last 4 series openers and are 10-21 on the year opening series. Combine this with their inability to walk or make good contact makes them hitting underachievers. C J Wilson is also a consistently strong starter and not one Royal really owns him career wise. C J had a terrible start at Detroit partly because the Tigers are hot now. Wilson before that had 9 out of 10 quality starts, and some very good ones mixed in there. Angels BP also strong.

ofred · Jul 23, 2012

Minnesota: TT over 4. One unit. This Twin lineup has absolutely killed Floyd over the years, except last time out. Floyd has had a rough year, but before going on the DL(elbow inflammation), had turned it around. I'm figuring he might get roughed up early or only go 3-5 innings on a pitch count. Middle relief might boost the potential for Twins scoring. The Twins have a lot of scoring potential in their lineup, but only put it together now and then. Have hit much better June and July.

Maris9 · Jul 23, 2012

Bet10Heinekens said:
Bedard already shutdown the Cubs at PNC Park this year

Bedard not pitching anywhere close to as well as he was in May. Don't think that game means much here today.

Monday: The Grind YTD: 271-242, + 57.1 units

Search

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

powerz

Dice, Sports & Cocktails

Bet10Heinekens

New member

Bet10Heinekens

New member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

THEDIRTYHUSTLER

Member

powerz

Dice, Sports & Cocktails

ofred

Member

HuskerBury

New member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

Bet10Heinekens

New member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

Maris9

New member

Forum statistics

Share this page