2012 MLB O/U Record: 237-231-24, -$1,672 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
As usual, bitten by an awful bad beat yesterday with my Eovaldi vs Niese under 8, as it was 3-2 in the ninth inning, only for the Dodgers to, of course, blow it, and then even when it was 3-3 in extra innings, meaning there was still room to win or push, the usual BS occurred as they surged to five runs in the top of the 12th. Obviously that can happen, but it’s happening wayyy too frequently when it’s supposed to be a rarity. And why can’t I ever get a break like that? And of course, it was the second time something like that happened in only a few days, as I had that Vogelsong vs Minor under 8.5 the other day in Atlanta, which was 1-1 going into extra innings, only to “lose” because of a surplus of runs. Also could have somewhat made a case for yesterday’s Lyles vs Collmenter under 9.5, which was 1-1 in the sixth, but Arizona put together a miraculous seven-run inning, most of which coming with two outs, and of course, I added yet another loss by a run or less, something I absolutely lead the country in this year. HOWEVER, I can accept that loss because big innings DO happen - it’s just frustrating because when do I ever get something like that in an over I take? Quite the rarity. Anyway, let’s just move on to Monday, the first day of the betting week…
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies (Best Bet) - $84 for $80
Randy Wolf vs Roy Halladay
UNDER 8
Funny. I was waiting all day for theline to go from 7.5 to 8, and I was about to give up so I just started writing this, thinking that Vegas wasn’t going to budge. Well, luckily, my patience paid off, as I checked my sportsbook and the line now currently sits at 8, making this an under to get pretty excited over. See, most people who bet baseball lay it all out with the usual suspects on the mound (Halladay, Felix, Sabathia, etc.), whereas you guys know I’m the complete opposite, as I have my own usual suspects who are relatively unknown but I thrive with (Bud Norris, James McDonald, JA Happ, Blake Beavan, Lucas Harrell), Graham Godfrey, which makes this specific under very enticing - I don’t normally go after Roy Halladay starts because I don’t usually get a vibe on them. In fact, I had a losing record with him last year. However, this is a very different scenario for the Phillies’ ace - he’s actually shown signs of struggling for the first time since his early days with Toronto. I mean, to most people, a 3.96 ERA and 1.14 WHIP isn’t “struggling” at all, but this is the great Doc Halladay we’re talking about. There’s a reason he has that nickname, having been one of baseball’s premier hurlers for many years now, as he’s just an absolute surgeon on the hill, not to mention one of the most dependable pitchers in recent memory. Now that he’s finally back from his first DL stint in awhile, he can get back to work, and considering he comes off as a perfectionist on the mound, he’s certainly going to want to make the most of his starts right out of the get-go, especially with the Phillies desperately needing him for any sort of push into contention. We can also cheat a little bit and see what Halladay did in his return start six days ago (5 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 6 Ks), and with that first start back out of the way, we can hopefully see more of the Roy Halladay of old.
Of course, it would be too luxurious if all we had to do was lean on that golden right arm of the multiple-time Cy Young winner. There’s another man who will have a part in this, that being another guy I don’t frequently bet on, Randy Wolf. I mentioned it months ago before a Fox Saturday day game start against the Giants and I am going to re-emphasize that point I made, which may finally be ringing true: Randy Wolf is much better than his atrocious 2012 numbers. For awhile, it looked like Wolf wasn’t going to prove me right, as his ERA was still hovering around 6 throughout July and June. Luckily for him, it looks like he may be finally turning it around, as evident in his last start against the always-tough Cardinals, when he held them to two runs over 6.2 innings in securing his first win since April 30. Yes, it was that long ago. There’s no question that was pressing on his mind and affecting his performance (See: Cliff Lee), and now that he’s off the schnide for the first time in almost three months, we can perhaps see him showing some of his old self again (Also See: Cliff Lee). The comparisons to Cliff Lee might make you seem uncomfortable, as Wolf’s skillset obviously doesn’t match that of Cliff Lee, but the scenarios are the same, being two veteran lefties who went through really extended slumps in the win department. In Lee’s case, ever since he got that first win, he’s been cruising since; let’s hope Wolf can somewhat duplicate that and hang in there with Roy Halladay after finally picking up a win in his last outing.
Other 7/23 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Mat Latos vs Wandy Rodriguez UNDER 7.5 - $27 for $25
Felix Doubront vs Scott Feldman OVER 10 - $19 for $15
(Might take Sanchez vs Kennedy under 9, but that line is at least a half-run lower than it should be. Why would it be the same line in the same ballpark as the much superior Norris vs Cahill matchup??)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
As usual, bitten by an awful bad beat yesterday with my Eovaldi vs Niese under 8, as it was 3-2 in the ninth inning, only for the Dodgers to, of course, blow it, and then even when it was 3-3 in extra innings, meaning there was still room to win or push, the usual BS occurred as they surged to five runs in the top of the 12th. Obviously that can happen, but it’s happening wayyy too frequently when it’s supposed to be a rarity. And why can’t I ever get a break like that? And of course, it was the second time something like that happened in only a few days, as I had that Vogelsong vs Minor under 8.5 the other day in Atlanta, which was 1-1 going into extra innings, only to “lose” because of a surplus of runs. Also could have somewhat made a case for yesterday’s Lyles vs Collmenter under 9.5, which was 1-1 in the sixth, but Arizona put together a miraculous seven-run inning, most of which coming with two outs, and of course, I added yet another loss by a run or less, something I absolutely lead the country in this year. HOWEVER, I can accept that loss because big innings DO happen - it’s just frustrating because when do I ever get something like that in an over I take? Quite the rarity. Anyway, let’s just move on to Monday, the first day of the betting week…
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies (Best Bet) - $84 for $80
Randy Wolf vs Roy Halladay
UNDER 8
Funny. I was waiting all day for theline to go from 7.5 to 8, and I was about to give up so I just started writing this, thinking that Vegas wasn’t going to budge. Well, luckily, my patience paid off, as I checked my sportsbook and the line now currently sits at 8, making this an under to get pretty excited over. See, most people who bet baseball lay it all out with the usual suspects on the mound (Halladay, Felix, Sabathia, etc.), whereas you guys know I’m the complete opposite, as I have my own usual suspects who are relatively unknown but I thrive with (Bud Norris, James McDonald, JA Happ, Blake Beavan, Lucas Harrell), Graham Godfrey, which makes this specific under very enticing - I don’t normally go after Roy Halladay starts because I don’t usually get a vibe on them. In fact, I had a losing record with him last year. However, this is a very different scenario for the Phillies’ ace - he’s actually shown signs of struggling for the first time since his early days with Toronto. I mean, to most people, a 3.96 ERA and 1.14 WHIP isn’t “struggling” at all, but this is the great Doc Halladay we’re talking about. There’s a reason he has that nickname, having been one of baseball’s premier hurlers for many years now, as he’s just an absolute surgeon on the hill, not to mention one of the most dependable pitchers in recent memory. Now that he’s finally back from his first DL stint in awhile, he can get back to work, and considering he comes off as a perfectionist on the mound, he’s certainly going to want to make the most of his starts right out of the get-go, especially with the Phillies desperately needing him for any sort of push into contention. We can also cheat a little bit and see what Halladay did in his return start six days ago (5 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 6 Ks), and with that first start back out of the way, we can hopefully see more of the Roy Halladay of old.
Of course, it would be too luxurious if all we had to do was lean on that golden right arm of the multiple-time Cy Young winner. There’s another man who will have a part in this, that being another guy I don’t frequently bet on, Randy Wolf. I mentioned it months ago before a Fox Saturday day game start against the Giants and I am going to re-emphasize that point I made, which may finally be ringing true: Randy Wolf is much better than his atrocious 2012 numbers. For awhile, it looked like Wolf wasn’t going to prove me right, as his ERA was still hovering around 6 throughout July and June. Luckily for him, it looks like he may be finally turning it around, as evident in his last start against the always-tough Cardinals, when he held them to two runs over 6.2 innings in securing his first win since April 30. Yes, it was that long ago. There’s no question that was pressing on his mind and affecting his performance (See: Cliff Lee), and now that he’s off the schnide for the first time in almost three months, we can perhaps see him showing some of his old self again (Also See: Cliff Lee). The comparisons to Cliff Lee might make you seem uncomfortable, as Wolf’s skillset obviously doesn’t match that of Cliff Lee, but the scenarios are the same, being two veteran lefties who went through really extended slumps in the win department. In Lee’s case, ever since he got that first win, he’s been cruising since; let’s hope Wolf can somewhat duplicate that and hang in there with Roy Halladay after finally picking up a win in his last outing.
Other 7/23 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Mat Latos vs Wandy Rodriguez UNDER 7.5 - $27 for $25
Felix Doubront vs Scott Feldman OVER 10 - $19 for $15
(Might take Sanchez vs Kennedy under 9, but that line is at least a half-run lower than it should be. Why would it be the same line in the same ballpark as the much superior Norris vs Cahill matchup??)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
