Tuesday: Can't wait to see the Arizona/ Colorado Line YTD: 277-245, + 64.3 units

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Monday: 6-3, +7.2 units. Hit most of the big plays. After a weekend of underdog winners, it figures the faves hit today. I've also noticed that Minnesota and KC are similar in that they put up decent hitting stats, but consistently find ways to kill their own rallies, hitting into DP and leaving many runners in scoring position- they do this a lot, in many games. I also want to commend Vogelsong for being the best pitcher no seems to notice. He is the opposite of KC/Minnesota's hitting attacks- he finds ways to kill the opposition's rallies.

Really curious about that Arizona line tomorrow, including the totals. Colorado's pitcher, Edwar Cabrera, honestly seems out of his league in the majors, but that the Rockies have no other option(why else would they trade for Jonathan Sanchez, sign Jeff Francis, and roll out Guthrie for so many starts this year?). Joe Saunders also has been lit up by the Rockies career wise, has not pitched well since May or at home. The total might be 12, and Arizona should be heavily favored. Also, both teams have iffy Bps, the D-Backs are hot at the plate and even the Rockies can stroke it usually- though not so much on the road. Look for this first thing in the morning.
 

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LAA. -1. 3 units. This seems a lot to put on Garrett Richards, whom has command issues. However, he did subdue the hot hitting Tigers in his last outing and I'm hoping his mechanics are corrected and will pitch well again. He has very good stuff, with high 90s fastball, a two seamer that sinks, and a decent slider and curve for a young pitcher. Since KC doesn't like to take bases on balls, and is last in the AL, I'm hoping they swing at some of his slightly off the plate pitches. Another reason I like this is that Will Smith is a lefty, a very average one. KC is also desperate to find passable starters. Bruce Chen might have survived Monday, but Smith has youth and inexperience against him. In 20 IPs, he's given up 18 runs and 7 HRs. Even in the minors he was average. The Angels have struggled with RHP lately, but have hit lefties much better. Richards certainly has more experience than Smith and a better lineup behind him. Both teams have good Bps, though the Angels is better in the late innings.

LAA-1/2 . First 5 IP. One unit.
 

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Detroit.ML. One unit. A little wary on this one since you never know when the Indians might score a bunch of runs. Most of the time lately, they have been awful scoring runs. Tommy Hunter and other poor pitchers have stifled them lately. But Fister looks much better lately and Ubaldo has been hit hard his last 5 starts-27.2 IPs, 22 runs, 5 HRs and 18 walks. He's always been kind of an enigma and not a great teammate. Anyways, this play is also on the Tigers continuing their hot hitting. Will first place spoil them or spur them on?
 

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Seattle:ML. One unit. King Felix loves pitching against the best teams, and the Yankees are in a road slump right now. Felix hasn't given up a HR since early June and his walk, K numbers are unbelievable since then. Other than a one inning spurt vs. Millwood the Yanks didn't do much Monday- or in Oakland. The Mariners can hit Freddy Garcia, whose success is on borrowed time if you ask me. The Yankees will pull him when he starts his usual slip.
 

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Oakland:ML.(+124) One unit. The A's are not the A's anymore. They have a terrific bullpen, one of the best, and their starting rotation is also one of the top 10 in the majors(at least lately). They still don't hit a ton, but have some power and are willing to be patient for bases on balls. Sort of Moneyball reborn. Coming off their Yankees sweep and facing Brett Cecil, this is a nice underdog. Cecil has had problems pitching in Toronto and giving up HRs. he also loses command at times, which fits well with what the A's try to accomplish. Blackley has incredible command and though he pitches to contact, he rarely allows good contact- only one HR in 61 IPs. With the A's great BP, the A's have a good chance of winning and staying in the game. Toronto's sweep was nice, but Boston is not a good team anymore, and Toronto is not the friendly confines of Fenway. Bautista still out.
 

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SD: One unit. ML. The Padres have the new and improved Edinson Volquez going and he is definitely a new pitcher this year. In his last 34 IPs, just 20 hits, one HR and 33 Ks. He has also shut down some good hitting teams this year. Has good K numbers and can induce ground balls. After lefty Clayton he will be a change of pace vs. the Giants. Bumgarner's stats might start gravitating toward his number soy last year and the year before. He is already showing signs of it, giving up 6 HRs in his last 3 starts. The Padres got shut down by Vogelsong, like everybody else, but they have been hitting well at times in the past few weeks and have struggled more with RHP. Their top 5-6 hitters have all been productive overall. The Padres also have an edge in the BP here as the Giants BP has been below average for a while.
 

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Haven't been great on totals. These are all 1/2 unit. May increase tomorrow.
Miami/ATL: under 7.5. Miami has traded away 2 starters, can't hit anyways, and face Hudson. Buehrle has been tough on many ATL hitters- Braves aren't hitting well lately either.
Tampa/ Balt. Under 8.5. Tampa has been awful for many weeks and haven't seen much of Chen. Hellickson has good career numbers vs. O's and the Orioles are also slumping.
Cinn/ Houston: Under 8. Lucas Harrell tries to win a game for his team, while his team barely can score. Minute Maid is pretty good pitcher's park.
 

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I guess this is my total of the year. If I lose it, that'll teach me a lesson on why totals are harder to win than straight bets.
Arizona/ Colorado: 3 units. over 10. Haven't played any total at 3 units yet. The Rockies aren't really slumping. One game they hit very well, the next not so much. This is the story of many of their road trips. I think they'll get to Saunders. Saunders has not pitched well in Arizona going back 3 years. Better road pitcher. Other than Dexter Fowler, this Rockies lineup has very good stats vs. him(and Fowler is kind of hot right now and DOES hit lefties well). Then you have to factor in that he is about a 5 inning pitcher now, and the D-Backs bullpen is lousy. Edwar Cabrera is very raw, but I guess has a nasty change up. In AAA he has one great outing, then a poor one. Command of his low 90s fastball is not consistent to say the least and has walked 11 in 20.2 IPs. I think in the minors, he sets up batters with 2 strikes on his fastball, then whiffs them on his change up. No off speed pitches that are ready besides the change up. If his fastball is not hitting the plate, he gets in trouble. In his only major league start he was clearly not commanding anything and the Rockies sent him down after one start. Not exactly a confidence builder. This D-Back lineup is extremely hot, hitting .332 their last 7 games, with 34 extra base hits. They are likely to see the Rockies middle relief tonight, which is no great shakes either.

Comparing this over 10 at even money vs. some of the other games at 8 or so, it just seems like so many factors should easily make this more than a 2 run difference. Oh, and Chase Field is a good hitter's park- easily in the top 5.
 

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GL today fred - Thanks for SF and Ariz yesterday.


I like that the A's total is dropping that is + sign for them on ML - given the way they win games compared to how Tor wins games


powerz
 

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Pitt-1. Two units. This is reversal night in Pittsburgh. Mcdonald has had 2 rough outings on the road, in 2 hitter friendly parks, and Maholm has been pitching his best in years. The Pirates are still playing well if not hitting quite as well.(McCutcheon exception) I think they'll get to Maholm tonight, and have excellent stats vs. him career wise and have hit lefties well this year- especially in their hot streak. You have to definitely factor in that Maholm is a drastically different pitcher than Samardjizia(and the Pirates were due for a game like this). Maholm pitches in the mid-high 80s a lot, and has to have great command, which he has, but it doesn't ever seem to last for him. Also, the Pirates have a huge BP advantage. The Cubs are hitting only .226, with 17 runs, in their last 7 games- and I think McDonald turns it around tonight. There is nothing wrong with him, and he knows that he and Burnett are being counted on to be the aces on this team, and lead them to the playoffs. The Pirates start a new streak tonight. Should play it for 3 units! No guts O Fred.
 

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GL Fred..... On the Angels and Pirates myself today.... also got a bit of White Sox action as well.... those are 3 im sticking to! GL ALL!
 

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Detroit.ML. One unit. A little wary on this one since you never know when the Indians might score a bunch of runs. Most of the time lately, they have been awful scoring runs. Tommy Hunter and other poor pitchers have stifled them lately. But Fister looks much better lately and Ubaldo has been hit hard his last 5 starts-27.2 IPs, 22 runs, 5 HRs and 18 walks. He's always been kind of an enigma and not a great teammate. Anyways, this play is also on the Tigers continuing their hot hitting. Will first place spoil them or spur them on?

Make this 2 units. Infante's bat will make this lineup even more deadly. The guys they've been using at second base have been pulling down their run production for months. Also, there's something about having a new guy(actually 2 with Sanchez) that refreshes a team and motivates them in their first few games. Infante will definitely appreciate being there and leaving the Marlins- where baseball is a second thought.
 

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Big night again tonight. 15.5 units on the line if my math is right.

Could be a huge night. BOL Fred and all.

Let's get em.
 

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