2012 MLB O/U Record: 237-233-26, -$1,783 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Rough 0-2-2 day yesterday. First off, both of those pushes easily should have been wins as:
A)Doubront vs Feldman over 10 was 9-1 in the sixth inning, and of course I couldn’t get a run off the bullpens because god forbid something actually works out like it’s supposed to (85-percent of the time, runners advance in the ninth inning on defensive indifference, yet Cody Ross must have gotten the memo that I took the over so he just stayed put after leading off the Boston ninth with a single; would have scored on the ensuingsingle right after him) and
B)The only reason Sanchez vs Kennedy even pushed was because of a two-out, three-run bases-loaded triple from Ian Kennedy, who, uh, was 1-for-29 this year at the plate. Of course I’m not rewarded for my bold pick of going with a Jonathan Sanchez under. But at the end of the day, what stuck out most was being wrong on Roy Halladay, as despite being 100-percent right with my bold prediction that Randy Wolf would contribute an outstanding start on the road against Philadelphia, Halladay sucking in the beginning dug me an early hole that could not be avoided (Of course he gives up a two-out, three-run homer to puny little Carlos Gomez. Of course), but hey, that’s the risk I took and I was wrong about the best pitcher in the game over the past several seasons, apparently. Luckily, I felt really good looking at this Tuesday slate, which I believe should carry me out of this mini-slump…
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $75 for $65
Paul Maholm vs James McDonald
UNDER 7.5
It is usually incredibly delightful to catch a pitching matchup with literally two of my top five favorite pitchers in all of baseball, as No. 2 (James McDonald) and No. 5 (Paul Maholm) are set to square off tonight in Pittsburgh. I’ve had extreme success, most of the time in unders, when such a matchup takes place (Ex. Bud Norris vs James McDonald, Bud Norris vs Paul Maholm), and I’m hoping for the same sort of outcome in this one. No, I’m not hoping, I sense it, because when you have the opportunityto grab a bet with two of your pitching darlings in it, well, just about every single time, you’ll come out on top because there’s a reason you covet certain favorite players so much. In the case of James McDonald, as I documented and detailed so many times, he was one of my top three sleepers coming into the year, as I always knew he would develop into a top-tier pitcher. Did I predict him exactly putting himself in a position to compete for a Cy Young award in 2012? Not necessarily, but as I’ve even written about, I’ve been calling for him to make that next major step in becoming an upper-echelon starter in the National League, while helping the Pirates finally end their historic consecutive-seasons’ losing streak, which absolutely is on the brink of coming to an end, with a lot of thanks going to J-Mac himself. After all, just look at the impressive statline: 10-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 104 Ks in 119 IP, which he’s always shown the potential of with his nasty stuff that he possessed even before he came to Pittsburgh in that 2010 trade (In which I was seemingly the only person who made a big deal out of that, since he never got a fair chance in Los Angeles). Even better, at least as it pertains to this under, is we’re catching McDonald home at PNC Park, where he displays his best work, as evident in his 5-1 record, 1.69 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and .182 BAA. I can’t stress it enough: McDonald is no fluke and his success will continue for the most part as this season rolls on.
Paul Maholm is another longtime favorite of mine, which I honestly did not think I would be saying at this point in the season entering 2012. In actuality, and I’ve told you guys about this before, when he left Pittsburgh for Chicago, I actually thought I’d lose him as the dependable unders machine he once was. Start after start, despite not getting many wins, Vegas would continue to somewhat disrespect him with slightly-higher-than-they-should-be lines for Paul Maholm starts, even though he would pump out quality outings on a regular basis, especially at PNC Park. Moving to Chicago, though, I thought he would struggle with half of his starts being at the inconsistent Wrigley Field (Due to those legendary winds), but I’ve stuck with him, and ever since an atrocious start to the season, which saw him bring a 6+ ERA into May, he has been mostly magnificent, in effort of lowering that ERA down to a measly 4.09. He’s been especially remarkable as of late, having not allowed more than a run in each of his past four starts. Unfortunately, that’s a trend that the Law of Averages could easily break up in this one, as Maholm isn’t that elite, but still, this is what I always liked about the crafty southpaw: He goes through extensive streaks of great pitching, and while I do think he’ll give up more than a run in tonight’s outing, that doesn’t mean he can’t chip in with a quality start. Perhaps most importantly, when pitchers return to their old home, where they pitched for so many years, there’s that huge variable of not being themselves, but Maholm already got that over with when he returned to Pittsburgh in a nationally televised FOX Saturday night game on May 26, when he fired five innings of two-run ball - a perfectly acceptable performance that we will take in this one. The nerves shouldn’t be there, since he already got this over with, so hopefully Maholm can enjoy being out on the hill in Pittsburgh again and give us his usual quality pitching. That, and aside from Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates are not particualrly good against left-handed pitching. Would feel a lot more comfortable if the line was 8 but we can still earn the win going under 7.5.
Other 7/24 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jeremy Hellickson vs Wei-Yin Chen OVER 8.5 - $48 for $40
Travis Blackley vs Brett Cecil OVER 9 -$37 for $35
Mike Leake vs Lucas Harrell OVER 8 - $32 for $30 (Harrell obviously another one of my top five favorite pitchers; I rarely get an over vibe on one of his starts so that’s pretty significant)
Clayton Kershaw vs Adam Wainwright OVER 7 - $35 for $30
Edinson Volquez vs Madison Bumgarner UNDER 6.5 - $25 for $20
Cole De Vries vs Jose Quintana OVER 9 - $22 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Rough 0-2-2 day yesterday. First off, both of those pushes easily should have been wins as:
A)Doubront vs Feldman over 10 was 9-1 in the sixth inning, and of course I couldn’t get a run off the bullpens because god forbid something actually works out like it’s supposed to (85-percent of the time, runners advance in the ninth inning on defensive indifference, yet Cody Ross must have gotten the memo that I took the over so he just stayed put after leading off the Boston ninth with a single; would have scored on the ensuingsingle right after him) and
B)The only reason Sanchez vs Kennedy even pushed was because of a two-out, three-run bases-loaded triple from Ian Kennedy, who, uh, was 1-for-29 this year at the plate. Of course I’m not rewarded for my bold pick of going with a Jonathan Sanchez under. But at the end of the day, what stuck out most was being wrong on Roy Halladay, as despite being 100-percent right with my bold prediction that Randy Wolf would contribute an outstanding start on the road against Philadelphia, Halladay sucking in the beginning dug me an early hole that could not be avoided (Of course he gives up a two-out, three-run homer to puny little Carlos Gomez. Of course), but hey, that’s the risk I took and I was wrong about the best pitcher in the game over the past several seasons, apparently. Luckily, I felt really good looking at this Tuesday slate, which I believe should carry me out of this mini-slump…
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $75 for $65
Paul Maholm vs James McDonald
UNDER 7.5
It is usually incredibly delightful to catch a pitching matchup with literally two of my top five favorite pitchers in all of baseball, as No. 2 (James McDonald) and No. 5 (Paul Maholm) are set to square off tonight in Pittsburgh. I’ve had extreme success, most of the time in unders, when such a matchup takes place (Ex. Bud Norris vs James McDonald, Bud Norris vs Paul Maholm), and I’m hoping for the same sort of outcome in this one. No, I’m not hoping, I sense it, because when you have the opportunityto grab a bet with two of your pitching darlings in it, well, just about every single time, you’ll come out on top because there’s a reason you covet certain favorite players so much. In the case of James McDonald, as I documented and detailed so many times, he was one of my top three sleepers coming into the year, as I always knew he would develop into a top-tier pitcher. Did I predict him exactly putting himself in a position to compete for a Cy Young award in 2012? Not necessarily, but as I’ve even written about, I’ve been calling for him to make that next major step in becoming an upper-echelon starter in the National League, while helping the Pirates finally end their historic consecutive-seasons’ losing streak, which absolutely is on the brink of coming to an end, with a lot of thanks going to J-Mac himself. After all, just look at the impressive statline: 10-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 104 Ks in 119 IP, which he’s always shown the potential of with his nasty stuff that he possessed even before he came to Pittsburgh in that 2010 trade (In which I was seemingly the only person who made a big deal out of that, since he never got a fair chance in Los Angeles). Even better, at least as it pertains to this under, is we’re catching McDonald home at PNC Park, where he displays his best work, as evident in his 5-1 record, 1.69 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and .182 BAA. I can’t stress it enough: McDonald is no fluke and his success will continue for the most part as this season rolls on.
Paul Maholm is another longtime favorite of mine, which I honestly did not think I would be saying at this point in the season entering 2012. In actuality, and I’ve told you guys about this before, when he left Pittsburgh for Chicago, I actually thought I’d lose him as the dependable unders machine he once was. Start after start, despite not getting many wins, Vegas would continue to somewhat disrespect him with slightly-higher-than-they-should-be lines for Paul Maholm starts, even though he would pump out quality outings on a regular basis, especially at PNC Park. Moving to Chicago, though, I thought he would struggle with half of his starts being at the inconsistent Wrigley Field (Due to those legendary winds), but I’ve stuck with him, and ever since an atrocious start to the season, which saw him bring a 6+ ERA into May, he has been mostly magnificent, in effort of lowering that ERA down to a measly 4.09. He’s been especially remarkable as of late, having not allowed more than a run in each of his past four starts. Unfortunately, that’s a trend that the Law of Averages could easily break up in this one, as Maholm isn’t that elite, but still, this is what I always liked about the crafty southpaw: He goes through extensive streaks of great pitching, and while I do think he’ll give up more than a run in tonight’s outing, that doesn’t mean he can’t chip in with a quality start. Perhaps most importantly, when pitchers return to their old home, where they pitched for so many years, there’s that huge variable of not being themselves, but Maholm already got that over with when he returned to Pittsburgh in a nationally televised FOX Saturday night game on May 26, when he fired five innings of two-run ball - a perfectly acceptable performance that we will take in this one. The nerves shouldn’t be there, since he already got this over with, so hopefully Maholm can enjoy being out on the hill in Pittsburgh again and give us his usual quality pitching. That, and aside from Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates are not particualrly good against left-handed pitching. Would feel a lot more comfortable if the line was 8 but we can still earn the win going under 7.5.
Other 7/24 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jeremy Hellickson vs Wei-Yin Chen OVER 8.5 - $48 for $40
Travis Blackley vs Brett Cecil OVER 9 -$37 for $35
Mike Leake vs Lucas Harrell OVER 8 - $32 for $30 (Harrell obviously another one of my top five favorite pitchers; I rarely get an over vibe on one of his starts so that’s pretty significant)
Clayton Kershaw vs Adam Wainwright OVER 7 - $35 for $30
Edinson Volquez vs Madison Bumgarner UNDER 6.5 - $25 for $20
Cole De Vries vs Jose Quintana OVER 9 - $22 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
