The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - July 25, 2012 - YTD: 241-235-27

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 241-235-27, -$1,723 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Okay, very nice 4-2-1 performance yesterday, including the expected best bet victory with two of my top five favorite pitchers who I seemingly always win with (Maholm vs McDonald under) to help me overcome the previous past couple of days in which I got bit by some bad breaks that had me not thinking straight, so it was very important to put that behind me and not let it snowball. It means nothing if I can't follow it up so let’s just move on to this promising Wednesday slate, in which I’m only going after some of the night games…


Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays (Best Bet) - $81 for $70
AJ Griffin vs Ricky Romero
UNDER 9

An unlikely best bet on this Wednesday, but it’s a good one with a lot of potential. First off, it’s always intriguing to me when I get a best bet vibe on a game that features a pitcher I’ve never bet on before, and in this case, it’s obviously Athletics’ surprising youngster AJ Griffin, who has been mowing down opposing offenses left and right since making his Major League debut back in late June. In fact, he’s gone exactly six innings in EVERY start over his brief career in the bigs, and he’s yet to allow more than three runs in a start. Furthermore, in four of those five starts, he’s surrendered less than three, while overall, he’s garnered 20 strikeouts in 30 innings of work. Also possessing a WHIP of exactly 1.00 (24 hits, 6 walks), it looks like the A’s have a legitimate upper-rotation starter on their hands for the next few years, if not more. After all, it’s not like he’s controlling garbage offenses - he went into Texas in his second start and shut those Ranger bats down to no runs and two hits. In his most recent start, faced with the task of dealing with the mighty Yankees, Griffin went six strong and yielded only two runs, but the most impressive thing of all was that he walked zero batters. Yes, arguably the most intimidating lineup in baseball, who also happen to arguably be the most patient, couldn’t muster one free pass against the strike-throwing Griffin, and if he’s able to handle himself like that against the Rangers and Yankees, there’s a very good chance his tremendous early success will continue against the Jose Bautista-less Blue Jays.

While AJ Griffin has enjoyed loads of success this year, even in his short time in the majors, the opposite can be said for his opponent tonight, that being Blue Jays’ ace Ricky Romero. Actually, with his disastrous 2012, it’s hard to argue that Romero still is an ace, as he’s 8-6 with a 5.22 ERA and a disgusting 1.50 WHIP. However, there is a good chance, and in my opinion it’s a much more likely one, that Romero turns it around at least a little bit. He started off the second half with an excellent six-inning, one-run start against the Indians (In which I had the under), before faltering in his latest effort, which saw him allow six runs insix innings against the Yankees in New York… that happens so I’ll excuse him for it, as he seeks to make his comeback into remaining as one of the American League’s more relevant pitchers. First of all, this is a very nice spot tocatch him in, as he’s always been better at home throughout his career, and it’sa trend that he stuck out considerably this year, as evident in his home statistics (4.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) compared to his road ones (5.97, 1.71 WHIP). In fact, since I study starting pitchers literally more than 98-percent of the country, his home/away split stats are some of the most significant I’ve seen among any startingpitcher, which is a sentiment I actually pointed out in April. Second off, he’ll get some assistance from the lineup he’s facing, considering the A’s are in the bottom five in baseball against left-handed pitching. While they might be hot as a team, having currently secured one of the two wild card spots, the fact remains that this is not an offense that regularly lights the world on fire, and as long as Romero maintains his focus (He’s one of the biggest perfectionists out of any pitcher mentally), he should do solid against a lineup that struggles versus southpaws. With the line set at 9, we certainly have a lot of room to work with.


Other 7/25 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
David Price vs Miguel Gonzalez OVER 8 - $57 for $45
Jeff Francis vs Trevor Cahill OVER 9 - $32 for $30
Aaron Harang vs Trevor Cahill UNDER 9 - $20 for $21


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 
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Split my top two bets; it appears Ricky Romero has simply jumped the shark. If there was one spot for him to turn it around, it was this one: at home where he's always been at his best throughout his very, very good career, and against one of the bottom five offenses against left-handed pitching.

Anyway, adding another $32 for $30 on Francis vs Cahill OVER 9. Hope my last two over/unders can put me up for the night
 

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can u provide some write up for price vs gonzales over? thx
 

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