Cnotes Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

Verlander On Roll As Tigers End Set At Cleveland Indians

One of the hottest pitchers in baseball, Justin Verlander, goes to the hill on Thursday night when the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians finish their 3-game series.

First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. (ET) and Verlander is a $1.80 favorite over Zach McAllister and Cleveland. The total on the Don Best odds screen is 7½-runs.

Verlander (11-5, 2.42 ERA) has almost the exact same ERA as last year when he went 24-5 and won the AL Cy Young Award along with AL MVP honors. He’s doing his best to catch up to that win total by going 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA in three July starts, allowing just 11 hits in 25 innings.

The Tigers are 7-1 in Verlander’s last eight starts overall, with the 29-year-old right-hander allowing two earned runs or less in all of the wins. Don Best Sports analysts Pat Williams and Kenny White are both in agreement that they’re the team to beat in the AL Central, with White giving Chicago a chance as well.

Detroit does need its other starters besides Verlander to step up. Doug Fister got out-dueled in the Tuesday series opener by Ubaldo Jimenez, losing 3-2. The Wednesday night result is still pending with Max Scherzer a $1.45 favorite over Derek Lowe and the Tribe.

Note that Cleveland is just three games back of both Detroit and Chicago in the AL Central race pending Wednesday’s final. The offense hasn’t scored more than three runs in a game in its last five and is relying too much on the pitching staff.

The Indians are quietly 6-1 against the Tigers this year, including winning all four at home (the ‘under’ 4-0). The Tigers have only won five of the last 22 contests in Cleveland.

McAllister (4-2, 3.21 ERA) has been solid since joining the rotation in early May. Cleveland is 6-3 in his nine starts. He’s been even better in his last five at 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA.

The 24-year-old right-hander has a very good fastball at 92 mph and a curve ball at 80. His strikeout rate is a solid 8.36 and the former top Yankees farmhand does a good job mixing his speeds and keeping hitters off-balance.

Most pitchers are 10 percent better at home and 10 percent weaker on the road. McAllister has been slightly better at Progressive Field (3.13 ERA in six starts), while Verlander does have a significantly higher road ERA (3.08) than home (1.68), although that road number is 2.43 in his last five.

Dodgers & Cardinals Close Set In St Louis

The St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers finish up their 4-game series with a getaway game on Thursday afternoon. The contest could mark the Dodgers debut for Hanley Ramirez who was acquired from the Miami Marlins in a 4-player deal early Wednesday morning.

Thursday's clash is set for a 1:45 p.m. (ET) start and features Jake Westbrook on the mound for the Cardinals against LA's Chris Capuano. MLB odds opened with Westbrook and the Cards as $1.45 favorites with a 9-run total that favored the 'over.'

Don Best MLB analyst Kenny White called Ramirez a "game changer" despite the former NL Rookie of the Year not having a great year so far in Miami. Ramirez was asked to move to third base this season after the Marlins' winter spending spree included signing free agent shortstop Jose Reyes.

It appears Ramirez will move back to shortstop for Los Angeles, at least for the short-term while Dee Gordon is on the disabled list with an injured thumb. Gordon's offensive shortcomings could relegate him to a reserve role and leave Ramirez at short for the long haul.

It was not known if Ramirez would arrive in St. Louis in time for Wednesday's contest. The Cardinals were listed at -145 for that game which was still pending after the clubs split the first two games of the series.

Capuano (10-5, 2.81) earned his first victory in nearly a month with a nice performance against the Mets last Saturday when he tossed seven innings of 3-run baseball while recording nine strikeouts. He had a strong first two months of the season, but LA is just 5-5 in his last 10 starts. His road ERA is 4.10 compared to 1.64 at Dodger Stadium.

"A day game, with the temperatures rising in St. Louis against a very solid lineup," White noted, "not a good situation for Capuano."

Westbrook (8-8, 3.60) has pitched very well his last three starts, but the Cardinals only managed to win one of the games with their offense scoring only two runs in both losses. The veteran right-hander relies on his sinker and cutter to keep the ball on the ground at almost a 3:1 ratio of grounders to fly balls.

Unlike Capuano, however, Westbrook's best work has come on the road rather than at home. His splits show a 4.01 ERA at Busch Stadium in 10 starts, and a 3.19 mark in nine road assignments.

Westbrook dropped his only start against the Dodgers this year when Clayton Kershaw tossed a 6-hit shutout vs. St. Louis in LA on May 19. Capuano's last start against the Cards came in St. Louis last September while he was pitching for the Mets. The lefty failed to make it through the fifth inning and was charged with four runs.

Keep track of the latest MLB line moves, injury updates and betting trends all season by following the Don Best Pro Odds.

MLB

Thursday, July 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay 0 Bot 2 Tampa Bay -105 500
Baltimore 0 Over 9 500

Oakland 1 Bot 3 Oakland +107 500
Toronto 0 Over 9 500

LA Dodgers - 1:45 PM ET St. Louis -138 500
St. Louis - Under 9 500

Pittsburgh - 8:05 PM ET Houston +145 500
Houston - Under 8.5 500

Washington - 8:10 PM ET Washington +122 500
Milwaukee - Over 8 500

NY Mets - 9:40 PM ET NY Mets +155 500
Arizona - Over 9 500

Kansas City - 10:10 PM ET Kansas City +107 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

Diamond Trends - Thursday

July 26, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Athletics are 20-0 (+3.1 rpg) since August 26th 2004 in the last game of a 3+ game series following a shutout win.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nationals are 0-10 OU since June 25, 2011 as a road dog after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Brewers are 9-0 since April 05, 2011 when Yovani Gallardo starts at home against an NL opponent after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $900.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cardinals are 18-2-1 OU since August 4, 2007 after a game yesterday which was tied on exactly three separate occasions.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Tigers are 7-0 since July 10, 2011 when Justin Verlander starts as a road 140+ favorite when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $700.

-- The Mariners are 0-7 OU since May 18, 2011 when Jason Vargas starts at home after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $700 when playing the under.

Thursday Tips

July 25, 2012

The Thursday night baseball card wraps up with five games, including three division leaders taking their talents to the highway. The surprising Pirates and Nationals each begin four-game series against NL Central opponents, while the Diamondbacks look to stay hot when the slumping Mets travel to the desert. We'll begin in Cleveland as the red-hot Tigers attempt to keep their hold atop the AL Central against the Tribe.

Tigers at Indians - 7:05 PM EST

Detroit started the season slow out of the gate, but Jim Leyland's club won 13 of 15 games before falling at Cleveland on Tuesday night. The Tigers grabbed first place in the division after sweeping the White Sox at home over the weekend, while the Indians are slowly falling out the race by compiling a 12-16 record since late June.

Last year's AL Cy Young winner and MVP Justin Verlander (11-5, 2.42 ERA) is back to his elite form following victories in five of his last six trips to the mound. Verlander has tossed at least eight innings in each of his previous three starts, including a four-hit performance in a 4-2 home triumph over the White Sox. In his only start against the Indians this season, Verlander lost a 2-1 pitchers' duel as a $1.60 road favorite on May 24, halting a mini-two game winning streak versus Cleveland since the start of 2011.

The Indians have won three of Zach McAllister's (4-2, 3.21 ERA) last five starts since returning to the rotation at the end of June. The right-hander has allowed eight hits and four earned runs in his previous two outings, while splitting decisions against the Orioles and Rays. Cleveland is 4-2 in McAllister's six home starts, as the Indians are 4-1 at Progressive Field against the Tigers in 2012 after last night's 5-3 loss.

Pirates at Astros - 8:05 PM EST

Pittsburgh makes it first trip to Texas this season after taking six of the first seven meetings with Houston. The Bucs avoided a sweep by knocking off the Cubs on Wednesday afternoon to stay within striking distance of the Reds atop the NL Central. The Astros traded off left-handed pitcher Wandy Rodriguez to the Pirates on Tuesday, continuing Houston's two-year long fire sale. Things have bottomed out for Brad Mills' squad, which have won two games since the end of June.

A.J. Burnett (11-3, 3.59 ERA) continues to be a Cy Young candidate in the National League after winning his 10th game in the last 12 decisions. Burnett beat his old team in his past trip to the mound by stifling the struggling Marlins, 5-1, while tossing 7.2 innings of eight-hit ball. Surprisingly, Burnett is listed as a road favorite for just the second time this season in eight away starts, as the righty gave up 12 hits and six earned runs in just five innings the last time he faced the Astros at home.

Southpaw Dallas Keuchel (1-2, 4.03 ERA) looks to rebound after consecutive road losses to the Pirates and Diamondbacks. Keuchel is coming off his first start of less than five innings as the Houston hurler allowed seven runs in 3.1 innings of a 12-3 pounding at Arizona. The former Arkansas Razorback has pitched well in two starts at Minute Maid Park by delivering quality outings against the Indians and Padres.

Nationals at Brewers - 8:10 PM EST

Last season, Milwaukee won its division while Washington barely finished below .500. The two teams are switching roles this season as the Nationals own the best record in the National League while the Brewers likely won't make the postseason. The two clubs meet at Miller Park for the first time this season, as the home squad won all six matchups in 2011.

Milwaukee returns home following a winless trip at Cincinnati and Philadelphia, as Yovani Gallardo (8-7, 3.72 ERA) goes for his fourth consecutive quality start at Miller Park. Gallardo lost his last outing to the Reds, giving up four earned runs and striking out just one batter in a 6-2 defeat. The 'over' has cashed in six of Gallardo's nine home outings, while the Brewers are 4-0 in his previous four home starts.

The Nationals counter with Edwin Jackson (5-6, 3.73 ERA), as Washington is just 2-8 when the right-hander starts on the road. Jackson has dropped four of his last six decisions, while pitching past the sixth inning just once in his past four trips to the mound. Davey Johnson's team owns an excellent 9-2 mark the last 11 games as a road underdog heading into Thursday's action.

Mets at Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM EST

These two teams are going in completely different directions as New York heads out west with a 1-12 record since the All-Star break. The D-Backs have fought back after a slow start to be a force inside the NL Wild Card race with victories in seven of their previous 10 contests. However, Arizona has taken care of its business against the two worst teams in the NL, Houston and Colorado.

The D-Backs send out Wade Miley (11-5, 3.02 ERA), who has cooled off following a hot start to the season. The southpaw has allowed 16 earned runs in his last four starts after giving up just 11 earned runs in his previous six outings (May-June). The 'under' is 6-2 in Miley's last six starts, while yielding four earned runs in a 5-4 victory at Citi Field in early May.

With all the injuries to the Mets' rotation, Terry Collins hands the ball to right-hander Matt Harvey, who makes his Major League debut. Harvey (7-5, 3.68 at Triple-A Buffalo) struck out 112 batters in 110 innings of work in the minors, as the former UNC standout replaces veteran Miguel Batista. The Mets have dropped six of their past seven games away from Citi Field, while looking for their first victory in Phoenix since 2009.

Red-hot Tigers look for series win at Cleveland

DETROIT TIGERS (53-45)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (49-49)


First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -165, Cleveland +155, Total: 7½

Treading water at .500, the Cleveland Indians will look to gain a series win over the Detroit Tigers when the division foes play the rubber match of a three-game set on Thursday night.

The Tigers are perhaps the hottest team in baseball, with a 15-5 record in July, including a 9-3 mark against divisional foes. This run has put them in a tie for first in the AL Central with the White Sox. Reigning AL Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander has led Detroit to victory in all three of his July starts, going 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and an average of 8.3 innings per start. On the season, Verlander has a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, but he has never quite figured out the Indians in his career—in 28 career starts against them, he owns a robust 4.70 ERA, with the Tigers only coming out victorious in half of those games. In 16 career starts at Progressive Field, Verlander has posted horrific numbers: 6-9, 5.79 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. On Thursday, he faces Zach McAllister who has a 3.21 ERA on the season, leading his team to a 6-3 record in his nine starts. He has also been dominant in his past three outings, going 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, striking out 19 in 19.1 innings. And McAllister will take the rubber at home, where the Indians have owned the Tigers over the past three seasons to the tune of a 17-6 record, including 4-1 this year. Play on heavy underdog CLEVELAND to win the series finale.

This pair of two-star FoxSheets trends also favor the Indians:

Play On - Home teams (CLEVELAND) - with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts. (40-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 2*).

DETROIT is 23-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. The average score was DETROIT 4.5, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*).

The Tigers are 13-7 with Verlander on the mound, including seven wins in his past eight starts. He has also pitched at least six innings in 62 straight outings, the longest streak in the majors since Steve Carlton (1979-1982). But Verlander’s lone start against Cleveland in 2012 was a loss, although he pitched well, allowing just two earned runs in eight innings with seven strikeouts. Even with that loss, Verlander is 9-2 in 13 starts against the Indians since 2009. But Cleveland has usually found a way to make solid contact against the dominant right-hander, hitting four home runs off him in his past three starts. Verlander, despite his successes, has always allowed longballs, with five leaving the park on him in his last four overall outings. Still, given his numbers, the surging Tigers (14-3 in past 17 games) are understandably favorites in this game. Given his career stats versus the Tribe, however, Detroit is too chalky in this one.

While the Tigers have been hot, the Indians have been struggling, with losses in five of their past seven games. The offense has failed to surpass three runs in 10 of their pat 11 games, including seven in a row. McAllister has no decisions against the Tigers in his career, but has started against them twice, pitching well each time to the tune of a 1.59 ERA. In his lone start this year, he went 6.1 innings, yielding two runs on eight hits, striking out three and walking none. Both teams in this game feature average bullpens, but Cleveland’s is notably better at home (3.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) whereas Detroit’s is much worse on the road (4.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).

Thursday's betting tips: Astros calling up the kids

Weather to watch

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians: A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms could put a damper on Justin Verlander’s quest for his 12th win of the season.

Who’s hot?

The Oakland Athletics are riding a six-game winning streak heading into Wednesday night’s tilt with the Blue Jays. The over is 3-0-1 in Oakland’s last four road games.

Who’s not?

The New York Mets have dropped 12 of 13 overall and six straight at home. Now the Mets travel to Arizona to face 11-game winner Wade Miley on Thursday.

Key Stat

The Washington Nationals are 19 games above .500 for the first time since July 5, 2005. The Last time the franchise was 20 games above .500 was in 1994 as the Expos.

Game of the day

Tigers at Indians

Injury not to be overlooked

Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez could miss the next six to eight weeks after suffering a non-displaced fracture of the fifth metacarpal in his left hand. A-Rod was beaned by Seattle hurler Felix Hernandez in the eighth inning of a 4-2 loss to the Mariners on Tuesday.

Notable quotable

"I learned in economics there's no such thing as a free lunch."-Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels after signing a six-year, $144 million contract extension.

Notes and tips

-Things can't possibly get worse for the Houston Astros. They've dropped eight straight and 21 of their last 23 games overall. They've traded veterans and now GM Jeff Luhnow is hinting they'll be calling up minor leaguers to give the prospects a major league look. The kids could serve as a positive injection of youth and excitement or they could be over matched against big league talent. We'll have to wait and see.

-The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired infielder Hanley Ramirez in a four-player trade from the Miami Marlins early Wednesday morning. Despite the addition of Ramirez Los Angeles’ World Series futures odds aren’t flying up the board. According to Jeff Stoneback, race and sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, the Dodgers are staying put at their current price of 10-1.

-White Sox 3B Kevin Youkilis left Wednesday's game against the Minnesota Twins with a left ankle sprain. Youkilis is batting .277 with five home runs and 20 RBIs in 25 games since joining Chicago from Boston.

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Hanley Ramirez played 3B Wednesday but apparently is moving back to SS for the Dodgers.

-- Milwaukee bullpen allowed 13 runs in nine IP in losing all three games in its series at Philly. Three brutal losses in a row.

-- Max Scherzer is averaging 11+ strikeouts/9 innings, second to Stephen Strasburg in the major leagues.

-- Giants are in first place despite Tim Lincecum's 4-11, 5.88
record.

-- Blue Jays lost C JC Arencibia with a broken hand Wednesday; backup Jeff Mathis pitched the top of the 9th in an ugly 16-0 loss.

-- Reds have won seven straight games, are now 58-40. Dusty Baker is a very good manager, probably an underrated one.


***********


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) New Orleans Saints’ interim coach Joe Vitt was talking to the press Tuesday; when he started yammering about “….what a great summer we’ve had…..” I stopped listening and turned the channel.

Lets see, the coach got suspended for the season, the interim coach (Vitt) got a 6-game suspension, the GM is suspended and the star QB held out for more money, which he eventually got, but not without acrimony.

When a guy is just blatantly lying just to give the media its quotes, its definitely time to stop listening to him.

12) Cole Hamels gets six years, $144M from Philly. Makes you wonder if the Phils will call Texas and see if the wealthy but pitching-short Rangers want to take Cliff Lee off their hands.

11) Kendry Morales, Yeonis Cespedes both hit 3-run singles this week; before that, the last 3-run singles in the big leagues were in 2009.

10) Back in April, considering that I had four Marlins on my fantasy team, I told someone Miami better be good this year, or I was going to have a long summer. Well, Miami is selling off players at the trade deadline and my team is in 11th place in a 16-team league. Good times. Not.

9) NC State is 18-1 to win the national title in college hoop next spring; Wolfpack has a trip to Spain later this summer. Those trips (allowed once every four years) are pretty good as far as chemistry/bonding go, but they also allow the coaches to have ten extra practices before the trip. Can do a lot of teaching in those ten practices, and thats the main appeal.

8) Went to see the Blue Jays’ AAA team play Friday night; keeping in step with the parent club, the 51’s starting pitcher got hurt after one batter and had to leave the game. Las Vegas wound up winning in extra innings. Because of the half-mile high altitude, centerfield fence at Cashman Stadium is 433 feet away from home plate, and is two billboards high.

7) As for possible prospects for Toronto, Cuban SS Hechavarria, who got $10M from the Jays two years ago, is hitting over .300 and showed good range in the field. OF's Thames/Sierra both homered, 1B Cooper has done all he can do at AAA, but doesn't have enough power to stick as a 1B in the bigtime. Not sure why Thames hasn't stuck with the Jays.

3B McCoy looks like a slick fielder, but if you hit .248 in the PCL, you're not a serious prospect. Chavez got hurt after the first batter, was replaced by Carreno (8.92 ERA), who doesn't have major league command.

6) Mets head to Arizona on a 1-11 skid, turn to highly touted prospect Matt Harvey, who will be making his MLB debut in a park where the home team scores a lot of runs.

5) Orioles are 51-47, but allowed 57 more runs than they've scored. Boston is 49-50, but scored 34 more runs than they've allowed. Go figure.

4) Wednesday afternoon's crowd of 33,935 was largest weekday crowd for a home matineee in Pirate history. Friend of mine left his hotel near the ballpark at 11am, got to his seat until 1:15. The bandwagon is growing.

3) Who Wants to Be a Millionaire held tryouts at the Elara Hotel in Las Vegas Wednesday, two days after I checked out of there, after an 11-day stay. That could’ve been my chance to be rich. Oh well…….

2) Just think, only six months left of Peyton Manning’s interminable Buick commercials. I'm going to look back fondly at 2011, when he didn't do commercials. Will be fun to see him play again.

1) NBA schedule is getting released Thursday night at 7 on NBA TV. Wonder if Knicks-Houston will play Opening Night or on Christmas?

MLB
Dunkel

Tampa Bay at Baltimore
The Orioles look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 1-5 in James Shields' last 6 starts as a favorite. Baltimore is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 26

Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Capuano) 15.518; St. Louis (Westbrook) 16.709
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Under

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.166; Houston (Keuchel) 12.941
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-155); Over

Game 905-906: Washington at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Jackson) 15.174; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.605
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); Under

Game 907-908: NY Mets at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Harvey) 13.559; Arizona (Miley) 15.771
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-160); Over

Game 909-910: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.358; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.878
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Over

Game 911-912: Oakland at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 17.532; Toronto (Laffey) 15.381
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+100); Under

Game 913-914: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.380; Cleveland (McAllister) 14.706
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Under

Game 915-916: Kansas City at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Mendoza) 14.105; Seattle (Vargas) 15.469
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 26

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (53 - 46) at ST LOUIS (52 - 46) - 1:45 PM
CHRIS CAPUANO (L) vs. JAKE WESTBROOK (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CAPUANO is 17-33 (-20.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 33-22 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 10-21 (-16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WESTBROOK is 1-8 (-9.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 4-2 (+2.5 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

CHRIS CAPUANO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
CAPUANO is 5-5 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.494.
His team's record is 9-5 (+6.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-7. (-0.8 units)

JAKE WESTBROOK vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
WESTBROOK is 0-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.106.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (55 - 42) at HOUSTON (34 - 65) - 8:05 PM
A.J. BURNETT (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 37-61 (-24.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BURNETT is 72-99 (-33.4 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 48-72 (-27.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 31-51 (-26.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
PITTSBURGH is 55-42 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 18-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
PITTSBURGH is 59-71 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 22-15 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
PITTSBURGH is 55-42 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 33-30 (+6.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 29-25 (+7.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
PITTSBURGH is 28-15 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
BURNETT is 14-3 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 14-3 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 34-65 (-22.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 38-70 (-25.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 2-19 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in July games this season.
HOUSTON is 41-73 (-22.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-65 (-22.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 68-115 (-27.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 23-50 (-21.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 20-44 (-18.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 41-85 (-28.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 6-1 (+4.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

A.J. BURNETT vs. HOUSTON since 1997
BURNETT is 2-5 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.37 and a WHIP of 1.615.
His team's record is 4-5 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-5. (-1.4 units)

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
KEUCHEL is 0-1 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.940.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (58 - 39) at MILWAUKEE (44 - 53) - 8:10 PM
EDWIN JACKSON (R) vs. YOVANI GALLARDO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSON is 5-12 (-8.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 14-23 (-14.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 88-49 (+25.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 39-17 (+17.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
GALLARDO is 18-3 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
GALLARDO is 11-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 58-39 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 56-41 (+20.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 30-20 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
WASHINGTON is 55-39 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 38-23 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
WASHINGTON is 42-27 (+11.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
WASHINGTON is 76-61 (+16.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 44-53 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 13-22 (-13.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 22-35 (-18.0 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 7-17 (-12.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 44-53 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 32-40 (-14.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

EDWIN JACKSON vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
JACKSON is 2-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.93 and a WHIP of 1.487.
His team's record is 4-3 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

YOVANI GALLARDO vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
GALLARDO is 3-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.319.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY METS (47 - 51) at ARIZONA (49 - 49) - 9:40 PM
MATT HARVEY (R) vs. WADE MILEY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 4-15 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in July games this season.
ARIZONA is 146-121 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 146-121 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 102-79 (+24.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 86-58 (+18.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 41-20 (+16.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILEY is 13-3 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 64-63 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 8-1 (+7.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.
NY METS are 60-61 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 32-36 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against ARIZONA this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

MATT HARVEY vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

WADE MILEY vs. NY METS since 1997
MILEY is 0-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

TAMPA BAY (51 - 47) at BALTIMORE (51 - 47) - 12:35 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. CHRIS TILLMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 51-47 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 19-11 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
BALTIMORE is 48-41 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 32-26 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TAMPA BAY is 68-60 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 34-25 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 62-47 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 218-300 (-81.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 287-365 (-101.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 173-297 (-101.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 5-3 (+1.2 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.3 Units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SHIELDS is 9-5 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.263.
His team's record is 13-9 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-10. (-1.0 units)

CHRIS TILLMAN vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
TILLMAN is 0-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.425.
His team's record is 3-2 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (53 - 44) at TORONTO (48 - 49) - 12:35 PM
TOM MILONE (L) vs. AARON LAFFEY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 316-227 (+51.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 53-44 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 16-2 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in July games this season.
OAKLAND is 84-67 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 31-21 (+14.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
MILONE is 17-7 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILONE is 9-3 (+7.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 (+2.4 Units) against TORONTO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

TOM MILONE vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.

AARON LAFFEY vs. OAKLAND since 1997
LAFFEY is 1-0 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.857.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (53 - 45) at CLEVELAND (49 - 49) - 7:05 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. ZACH MCALLISTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 25-29 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 24-28 (-12.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CLEVELAND is 132-131 (+4.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 126-124 (+3.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 34-25 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 39-29 (+9.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CLEVELAND is 27-21 (+6.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
DETROIT is 72-37 (+23.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 20-4 (+13.8 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 28-6 (+17.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 60-27 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 108-116 (-36.9 Units) against the money line in home games in July games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-2 (+5.5 Units) against DETROIT this season
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.6 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
VERLANDER is 13-12 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.230.
His team's record is 14-14 (-3.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-16. (-6.6 units)

ZACH MCALLISTER vs. DETROIT since 1997
MCALLISTER is 0-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 1.59 and a WHIP of 1.324.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (41 - 56) at SEATTLE (43 - 57) - 10:10 PM
LUIS MENDOZA (R) vs. JASON VARGAS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 14-39 (-18.9 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
VARGAS is 24-18 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VARGAS is 10-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 110-153 (-29.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-29 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SEATTLE is 21-52 (-29.6 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-30 (-20.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-29 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
SEATTLE is 97-154 (-47.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 4-11 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SEATTLE is 285-278 (-84.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 (+2.2 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

LUIS MENDOZA vs. SEATTLE since 1997
MENDOZA is 0-0 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 8.44 and a WHIP of 1.689.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

JASON VARGAS vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
VARGAS is 3-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, July 26

Hot pitchers
-- Westbrook is 3-2, 2.79 in his last six starts.
-- Pirates won 13 of last 14 Burnett starts (2-1, 3.00 last three).
-- Gallardo is 2-1, 2.13 in his last four starts.
-- Miley is 2-0, 2.84 in his last couple starts.

-- Milone is 1-0, 1.35 in his last three starts. Laffey is 2-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Verlander is 6-1, 2.29 in his last seven starts. McAllister is 1-1, 2.63 in his last couple outings.
-- Vargas is 3-0, 1.86 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Capuano is 1-2, 5.79 in his last three starts.
-- Keuchel is 0-2, 11.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 7.40 in his last four starts.
-- Highly-touted rookie Harvey makes his MLB debut here; he was 7-5, 3.68 in 20 starts at AAA Buffalo.

-- Shields is 1-2, 6.18 in his last six starts. Tillman has a 5.74 RA in his three starts, all of which were on the road.
-- Mendoza is 2-3, 3.66 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates won six of their last eight games.
-- Nationals are 9-4 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games. Dodgers won five of last seven.
-- Arizona won eight of its last nine home games.

-- Tampa Bay won four of its last five away games.
-- A's won seven in row, 16 of their last 18 games.
-- Detroit won 14 of its last 17 games.

Cold Teams
-- Brewers lost their last six games, allowing 32 runs.
-- Mets lost twelve of their last thirteen games.
-- Astros lost 22 of their last 24 games.

-- Indians lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Blue Jays are 4-6 in their last ten home games.
-- Baltimore lost its last three games, outscored 16-3.
-- Seattle lost six of its last eight home games. Royals lost 12 of their last 15 games overall.

Totals
-- Nine of last eleven St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Houston games. Nine of last ten Pittsburgh tilts stayed under.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in last seventeen Washington games.
-- Over is 13-5-1 in Mets' last nineteen games.

-- Seven of last nine Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 21-7 in last twenty-eight Seattle games.

MLB

Thursday, July 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:35 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

12:37 PM
OAKLAND vs. TORONTO
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland

1:45 PM
LA DODGERS vs. ST. LOUIS
LA Dodgers are 8-17 SU in their last 25 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
LA Dodgers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

7:05 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit

8:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

8:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MILWAUKEE
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Milwaukee's last 23 games at home
Milwaukee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

9:40 PM
NY METS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 7 games on the road
NY Mets are 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets

10:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SEATTLE
Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
Kansas City is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
Seattle is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

MLB

Thursday, July 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Only eight games on the Thursday schedule and we had a hard time handing any of the 16 slated starters as “slumping”. So, we present the four hottest hurlers scheduled to take the bump on Thursday.

STREAKING

Tommy Milone, Oakland Athletics (9-6, 3.34 ERA)

Two months ago, the Gio Gonzalez trade looked like a slam dunk win for the Washington Nationals. But the rapid progress of Tommy Milone, one of the pieces Oakland got back in the Gonzalez trade, makes the deal seem a bit better by the Bay.

The A’s are 6-1 in Milone’s last seven starts and the young lefty carries a 1.35 ERA and a 23-2 strikeout to walk ratio over his last three appearances.

Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners (10-7, 3.91 ERA)

Vargas should be given a medal for winning 10 decisions with an offense this crappy behind him. The Mariners are 3-0 in his last three starts and he’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five outings.

Best thing about that three-game win streak with Vargas on the road: they all came on the road with the M’s priced at plus-money each time.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (11-5, 2.42 ERA)

OK, nothing groundbreaking here. Justin Verlander is still really effing good. How good? Well, the Tigers are 7-1 in his last eight appearances.

Of course the fat price oddsmakers make bettors pay takes out a lot of the fun of backing Verlander. Who wants to bet $300 to win $100? A better way of doing would be looking at the total. The under is 5-0 in the flame-throwing righty’s last five starts.