Thursday: Are the Pirates Really Slumping? YTD: 284-254, 61.1 units

ofred · Jul 26, 2012

Wednesday: 3-3, + 5 units. Lost both totals and my big total Tuesday. After seeing the fishy movement of that Tampa/ O's total, I'm going to leave the totals to the experts.

Pittsburgh:-1. 4 units. This line moved and the early money is on Houston. Of course, the lines moved the same way in their 3 losses to the Reds. Norris and Harrell pitched as good as possible and nearly got the Astros their first win in a long time. But their bullpen is incapable of holding a lead anymore. They blew it in the 9th in back to back games, and believe me, they had their best relievers out there. Now they face a team, the Pirates, who have one of the best BPs in baseball- better than the Reds even. Hanrahan's walk issues have even improved greatly.
Dallas Keuchel is probably the worst of their starters right now, especially as of late. Earlier in the year he had 3 good starts, although his strand rate and balls hit at fielders rate was way high. His last 2 starts, he has 12 walks and 6 Ks. His last minor league start was poor too. With his command issues you'll see that Astro bullpen earlier than usual. I think one reason the line moved was that Burnett's last bad start was vs. thew Astros on July 3rd. But earlier in the year he handled them well. Let's look at that start on July 3rd. Lowrie- 2 hits(DL). Lee- 2 hits(traded), Schafer- 2 hits(but0-6 before that vs. Burnett), and Luke Harrell

ofred · Jul 26, 2012

(sorry- got cut off)Luke Harrell- 2 hits(obviously not playing)
And are the Pirates really slumping, or just cooled off by very good pitching? I think the latter. They faced Dempster, Maholm(who is dominating lately believe it or not), Samardjizia(also pitching well lately) and Anibal Sanchez. All of these guys are very good or are pitching well at the moment. That's why Keuchel and the Astros' bullpen will be that much easier to hit. This game might be close going into the middle or late innings if Burnett gives up 2-3 runs(though I doubt it), but then the the BPs take over. With Keuchel's penchant for walking batters, not striking them out, and the Pirates power, I expect an easy win. The Astros also have to be very dispirited after the last 2 nights and after the management stripped the team down.

I might add to my play if the line moves back the other way, with money coming in on Pittsburgh(as it should).

ofred · Jul 26, 2012

KC: ML 2 units. (+111). As bad as the Astros bullpen is, the Mariners hitting is just as bad. They have caught the same disease as last year- Many hitters slumping at once, or too young, or utility guys like Jaso and Wells being their go to hitters. Mike Saunders is the only hitter that is hitting fairly well. Their 2 runs off of Nova was Saunders and Montero getting a single, mostly because Nova had not settled into his rhythm. Nova walked a couple of guys, and if not for Nova's 1st inning problems, the Mariners would have been no hit or shut out. On Tuesday they got to the ancient Freddy Garcia for 3 runs(Saunders again), though Garcia K'ed 8 in 3 innings. On Monday they were 3 hit by Kuroda. In the Tampa series they were dreadful striking out about 40 times in 3 games. Now Luis Mendoza is at the top of his game, and he is consistently missing bats and getting ground balls. Mendoza has a new cutter that has added to his repertoire and if you check his stats lately, you can see a the difference.How in earth are the Mariners favored here? Vargas. Because Vargas is a good Safeco pitcher(though a bad second half one), oddsmakers figure he'll hold the Royals down. He might somewhat, but the Royals just faced a few lefties, CJ Wilson, Scott Downs, and Scott Diamond- and held their own. they hit garrett Richards well too. Face it, the Royals don't walk enough or hit homers enough either, but they can hit, don't whiff much and are at least professional type hitters- unlike Seattle.

ftg4 · Jul 26, 2012

Like both of these, especially Pitt. I'm sure you'll have a play on the TB game, I lean towards Shields vs a semi-slumping O's squad.

Best of luck

ofred · Jul 26, 2012

Oakland: ML(+102). One unit. I'm going for 3-3 in this series. Not one Jay has ever hit against Tommy Millone- ever. Though Millone is known as a "home pitcher" he has great stuff and check out his last 6 starts: 41 IPs, only 3 walks and 36 Ks, 3 HRs, and an absolute masterpiece vs. the Yankees last time out. He also pitched well vs. the Yanks earlier this year. Combine this with the great A's BP, and they WILL be in this ball game. Laffey is the 3rd lefty in a row to face the A's. Shouldn't their manager tinker with the rotation so "that" doesn't happen? We can also see how the A's ripped those first 2 lefties, Cecil and Romero, apart. Laffey is pitching well, but his good outing in Fenway is as much a deception as the Jays 3 game sweep is vs. the Red Sox. It's hard to believe how bad the Sox are now. Besides this is who the Jays are- they get your hopes up just to dash them soon after. Without Bautista, this lineup just looks average. The also hit lefties a little worse than RHP. Laffey has been traded a lot and I expect he'll regress to his talent level staring Thursday. The A's lineup right now is as hot as anyone, and the Yankees sweep make them feel they can beat anyone. They can. This is one unit large.

ofred · Jul 26, 2012

Yes I do have Tampa, but only because I'm up 61 units. It's very possible tonight's game signifies that the Rays are very happy to be out of their stadium and at Camden Yard. And that the Rays are possibly out of their slump while the Orioles are not. Anyways, I have Tampa 1/2 unit, but with Tillman, you never know what you'll get. The Rays have seen him before and he's due for a shelling- one game good, one game bad pattern that he has. Shields pitched well vs. Seattle last time, but that's expected vs. their poor hitting. Don't bet the farm on this.

ofred · Jul 26, 2012

Verlander has dominated the Indians going back his last 4 starts vs. Cleveland. Also, the Tribe is not hitting worth a hill of beans. For some reason I can't pull the trigger. Maybe because Zach Mcallister has been the Indians best pitcher(though not great).

powerz · Jul 26, 2012

Jays woes continue on the injury - front starting catcher Arencibia broke his hand last night out for 6 weeks 15 HR and 59 rbi out of the line up, young rising star too bad the jays are going to continue to be a good fade beyond this series.

GL today

powerz

MadPicker · Jul 26, 2012

careful on the pirates, last season they started off the EXACT same a lil over .500 before allstar break and won a few after then it turned downhill. About a week later last season this time they got swept 3 series in a row.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 26, 2012

These lines on -1 plays are getting more and more stupid as they get more popular with players.

5D opened on Pitt with -159 ML and -130 for the -1 line. Say what???

Considering that you have to win by 2 to win with the -1 lines, if this trend continues, then paying the ML extra juice may be a better way to go in the future.

BOL everybody!

Wolfman35 · Jul 26, 2012

Catchn_Flops said:
These lines on -1 plays are getting more and more stupid as they get more popular with players.

5D opened on Pitt with -159 ML and -130 for the -1 line. Say what???

Considering that you have to win by 2 to win with the -1 lines, if this trend continues, then paying the ML extra juice may be a better way to go in the future.

BOL everybody!

Do you push if the favorite wins by 1 ?

MadPicker · Jul 26, 2012

Catchn_Flops · Jul 26, 2012

And it is a great line to avoid having to play the Run Line but to only get a 29 cent break for having to win by 2 runs is too much, imo.

Akillies · Jul 26, 2012

good analysis,
the houston middle relief now the strength of the team, w/ winton and winky, look for hou to eventually catch fire at some point as teams that get dismantled inevitably do. Fading hou will/has cost a premium, likely will for the rest of the season as it becomes increasingly difficult to back them.

ml plays are almost always bettor, and u can make your own -1 line by betting the ml in combination with the -1.5 line [to get better #'s].

ofred · Jul 26, 2012

o fred said:
Oakland: ML(+102). One unit. I'm going for 3-3 in this series. Not one Jay has ever hit against Tommy Millone- ever. Though Millone is known as a "home pitcher" he has great stuff and check out his last 6 starts: 41 IPs, only 3 walks and 36 Ks, 3 HRs, and an absolute masterpiece vs. the Yankees last time out. He also pitched well vs. the Yanks earlier this year. Combine this with the great A's BP, and they WILL be in this ball game. Laffey is the 3rd lefty in a row to face the A's. Shouldn't their manager tinker with the rotation so "that" doesn't happen? We can also see how the A's ripped those first 2 lefties, Cecil and Romero, apart. Laffey is pitching well, but his good outing in Fenway is as much a deception as the Jays 3 game sweep is vs. the Red Sox. It's hard to believe how bad the Sox are now. Besides this is who the Jays are- they get your hopes up just to dash them soon after. Without Bautista, this lineup just looks average. The also hit lefties a little worse than RHP. Laffey has been traded a lot and I expect he'll regress to his talent level staring Thursday. The A's lineup right now is as hot as anyone, and the Yankees sweep make them feel they can beat anyone. They can. This is one unit large.

Make this Oakland play 2 units.
As for the -1, it is true they are gouging players who take it straight up. Taking 1/2 on the ML and 1/2 on the RL gets you a better number.

ofred · Jul 26, 2012

Arizona-1. One unit. A little wary as you don't know how well Matt Harvey will do. But I did notice that the D-Backs have a lot of good hitters vs. RHP, and that Miley can hit well too. Also, Harvey has a 4.45 ERA vs. right handed hitters in the minors. I'll have to give Jeff Francis credit. He is the first starter on this Arizona home stand to shut them down. I think though that's a lull in their hot hitting at home. Harvey is almost, but not quite ready and will likely throw many fastballs- which becomes something for hitters to sit on, wait for. The Mets BP will also be a factor as Harvey will be on a pitch count, and their BP ranks with Minnesota, Milwaukee, Houston as just plain awful. The Mets are probably glad to get out of NY, but Miley is a tough lefty who has very good command usually. He can also go deep into games, which makes the D-Back BP less needed.

Wolfman35 · Jul 26, 2012

Catchn_Flops said:
These lines on -1 plays are getting more and more stupid as they get more popular with players.

5D opened on Pitt with -159 ML and -130 for the -1 line. Say what???

Considering that you have to win by 2 to win with the -1 lines, if this trend continues, then paying the ML extra juice may be a better way to go in the future.

BOL everybody!

One run in baseball is worth a lot. All home favorites win by exactly 1 run 17% of the time and all road favorites win by exactly 1 10% of the time. Also lower the game total even more of a chance of a 1 run game. You will push a lot laying -1 with Favorites instead of cashing with the standard line but you won't have to lay as much juice. 1 Run in a baseball game is probably worth around 30 cents easy.

Wolfman35 · Jul 26, 2012

Catchn_Flops said:
These lines on -1 plays are getting more and more stupid as they get more popular with players.

5D opened on Pitt with -159 ML and -130 for the -1 line. Say what???

Considering that you have to win by 2 to win with the -1 lines, if this trend continues, then paying the ML extra juice may be a better way to go in the future.

BOL everybody!

In baseball, the home team wins by one run about 17% of the time, and the road team wins by one run a little over 10% of the time. This disparity is due to the fact that in the bottom of the ninth or later inning, the game is immediately over when the home team is ahead by one run. This turns a lot of games into one-run wins, which in turn makes that one run extremely valuable. That run gains even more value when the total is low, which makes it much harder to win by more than one run. Conversely, that run is less valuable for high totals. The value of the run also varies slightly depending on the money-line for the game.

Mr.BANKROLL · Jul 26, 2012

Akillies said:
ml plays are almost always bettor, and u can make your own -1 line by betting the ml in combination with the -1.5 line [to get better #'s].

How? I would appreciate it if you could explain in more detail.

Coolie · Jul 26, 2012

Who knew wo Bautista n Arencibia Js score more than they did last 2 games???

Thursday: Are the Pirates Really Slumping? YTD: 284-254, 61.1 units

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