For the past three months I've been writing a baseball simulator in Excel VBA that simulates baseball games using sabermetric statistics. I do not want to get into the details of all the stats that the simulator uses but I will say it incorporates variables that few others bother touching. For those that know me on here, I hope you'll respect my position to not share which data and statistics I use. This is one of the biggest projects I've ever undertook in my life and I feel confident it will produce long-term gains in baseball wagering.
I'll just post the edges that the simulator comes up with on this thread for the remainder of the year. Plays will only be advised if we can come up with atleast a 15 cent edge vs the books. An edge of 15 to 30 cents is 1 unit. An edge of 30 to 45 cents will be a 1.5 unit play. An edge of >45 cents will be a 2 unit play.
Games involving pitchers with limited ML experience will not be analyzed.
Wed, July 26th
Detroit 63.8% (-171) vs Cleveland 36.2% (+171) -- No Edge, No Play
Pittsburgh vs Houston - No Play, Insignificant pitcher data
Washington 40.5% (+147) vs Milwaukee 59.5% (-147) -- Milwaukee -130, 1 unit play
New York vs Arizona - No Play, Insignificant pitcher data
I will post my lines for KC/Seattle when the lineups are available.
I'll just post the edges that the simulator comes up with on this thread for the remainder of the year. Plays will only be advised if we can come up with atleast a 15 cent edge vs the books. An edge of 15 to 30 cents is 1 unit. An edge of 30 to 45 cents will be a 1.5 unit play. An edge of >45 cents will be a 2 unit play.
Games involving pitchers with limited ML experience will not be analyzed.
Wed, July 26th
Detroit 63.8% (-171) vs Cleveland 36.2% (+171) -- No Edge, No Play
Pittsburgh vs Houston - No Play, Insignificant pitcher data
Washington 40.5% (+147) vs Milwaukee 59.5% (-147) -- Milwaukee -130, 1 unit play
New York vs Arizona - No Play, Insignificant pitcher data
I will post my lines for KC/Seattle when the lineups are available.