Sekrah's Simulator Thread

For the past three months I've been writing a baseball simulator in Excel VBA that simulates baseball games using sabermetric statistics. I do not want to get into the details of all the stats that the simulator uses but I will say it incorporates variables that few others bother touching. For those that know me on here, I hope you'll respect my position to not share which data and statistics I use. This is one of the biggest projects I've ever undertook in my life and I feel confident it will produce long-term gains in baseball wagering.

I'll just post the edges that the simulator comes up with on this thread for the remainder of the year. Plays will only be advised if we can come up with atleast a 15 cent edge vs the books. An edge of 15 to 30 cents is 1 unit. An edge of 30 to 45 cents will be a 1.5 unit play. An edge of >45 cents will be a 2 unit play.

Games involving pitchers with limited ML experience will not be analyzed.

Wed, July 26th

Detroit 63.8% (-171) vs Cleveland 36.2% (+171) -- No Edge, No Play
Pittsburgh vs Houston - No Play, Insignificant pitcher data
Washington 40.5% (+147) vs Milwaukee 59.5% (-147) -- Milwaukee -130, 1 unit play
New York vs Arizona - No Play, Insignificant pitcher data

I will post my lines for KC/Seattle when the lineups are available.

1. Alex Gordon (L) LF
2. Alcides Escobar (R) SS
3. Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
4. Billy Butler (R) DH
5. Mike Moustakas (L) 3B
6. Salvador Perez (R) C
7. Jeff Francoeur (R) RF
8. Eric Hosmer (L) 1B
9. Yuniesky Betancourt (R) 2B

1. Dustin Ackley (L) 2B
2. Michael Saunders (L) CF
3. Casper Wells (R) LF
4. John Jaso (L) DH
5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
6. Mike Carp (L) 1B
7. Miguel Olivo (R) C
8. Carlos Peguero (L) RF
9. Brendan Ryan (R) SS

Good stuff, Sekrah....thanks for posting, sounds like you've put a ton of work into this.
Best of luck.

Kansas City 58.2% (-139) vs Seattle -- Kansas City -102, 1.5 unit play

Also, if anyone is interested, I can also do all sort of prop analyzing with this system. Whether it be runs scored in an inning, player props, or whatever.

I just ran a few for the late game based on some 5dimes props:

Will Jeff Francoeur get a hit? 67.8% (-210). 5dimes has Yes -260, No +200, so no value there.
Will Brenden Ryan get a hit? 58.4% (-140). 5dimes has Yes -215, No +175, so possible value on the No bet here. Infact, I will include it in seperate prop tracking for a 1 unit play.

Very, very interesting. I can tell by your demeanor that you are truthful and legitimate so I wish you nothing but the best of luck. I'm always intrigued when someone has their own unique method so I'll being pay attention, especially since you note that you take into account several different variables, which are so, so crucial to the outcome of games.

Since I'm strictly an over/unders guy, I would also like to see if your technique addresses each over/under. Would love to compare my picks with your's on any given days. Thanks

Sekrah ,
nice to see you ...................look forward to your college post .
Hope all is well .......
D.