2012 MLB O/U Record: 243-237-27, -$1,802 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
2-2 yesterday, but down thanks to a lost best bet, which was actually still a solid bet no matter what. No. 1, I was 100-percent right in my bold prediction that rookie AJ Griffin, who could be viewed as a consistent unders guy from here on out the rest of the way pitching in Oakland, would go into Toronto and completely shut down that tough Blue Jays lineup on the road (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 Ks). Unfortunately, it’s just another beautiful bold prediction gone to waste, as Ricky Romero was absolutely shelled for literally the *worst* start of his entire career, which is just very unfortunate. Despite his shortcomings, it was the right bet to make, due to Oakland’s ranking in the bottom five in all of baseball against left-handed pitching, and Romero being significantly better pitching home at the Rogers Centre than on the road. But, apparently, I was wrong on him turning his season around, which probably won’t even happen, or at least until meaningless September games if he’s facing teams with garbage call-ups. We’ll see. In the meantime, let’s move on to Thursday, in which I only have two games from this shortened slate…
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers (Best Bet) - $58 for $50
Edwin Jackson vs Yovani Gallardo
OVER 8
I was hoping the line for this game would be 7.5, given that it’s two upper echelon National League pitchers involved here in a National League park, but we’ll just have to settle for 8, which is still okay because we can’t lose with a very possible 5-3 outcome. Edwin Jackson is someone who has been very consistent this year, but recently, he hit his first real rough patch of the season. Despite a very successful performance (7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 9 Ks on 7/21 vs Atlanta) in his last assignment, Jackson’s season took a sudden downward fall, as he was tagged for a whopping 16 runs over his previous three starts, spanning just 13 innings. Considering how reliable Jackson has been for the Nationals’ surge to the top of the NL East, it was certainly something that got into his mindset, and in my opinion, I don’t think he’s fully out of the rut just yet. It’s only natural for pitchers, even good ones, to go through somewhat extensive up-and-down runs, and considering Jackson’s shortcomings at Miller Park over the recent past, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him falter here. After all, Jackson was unsuccessful in two starts in Milwaukee in the 2011 playoffs (Combined numbers: 6 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 5 Ks), and if you think that occurred just because it was in the postseason, which is very possible for a lot of pitchers, then you obviously didn’t note that Jackson’s worst regular season start last year came - where else? - Miller Park, in which the veteran right-hander surrendered a ridiculous 14 hits and eight earned runs (Ten total) in seven innings. Having gathered all of this, it’s definitely appropriate to believe that Jackson doesn’t have many fond memories while working on the road against the Brewers, and given his recent struggles overall, those elements could lead to an unstable mindset, which does not lead to any consistent success whatsoever from a starting pitcher. Mentality, just as much as talent, is the most important factor in projecting a starting pitcher’s oncoming performance.
Well, that ended up being a lot more than I thought I had on Mr. Jackson concerning tonight’s start. I cannot say the same for his opposing hurler, proven ace Yovani Gallardo, but there still might be something that can help him propel this one into the win column for us over backers. First off, let me just say that just because I have the over here does not mean I respect Gallardo’s re-emergence as a top-tier National League pitcher. I actually give him a ton of credit for transforming his season, after that disastrous start in which he carried a mid-5’s ERA into mid-May. As a matter of fact, you might recall fans and analysts alike writing off Gallardo and believing his career was heading for a downward spiral. Of course, that ended up not being the case at all, as the Brewers’ right-hander now has a very comfortable ERA of 3.72, while posting a remarkable 122 strikeouts in 121 innings, which is enough to place him in the top five league leaders in that category. However, that doesn’t mean he’s no longer vulnerable to a bad start, as it’s very possible this Nationals lineup can get to him. No. 1, while Gallardo has always been better at home than on the road, there’s an interesting split stat in his 2012 performance that indicates he is not as effective in night games as he is during the day. At this point in the season, that’s a very relevant trend to take note of, considering Gallardo has actually made more starts at night (11), and in those outings, he has compiled a very mediocre 4.64 ERA with a very ugly 1.44 WHIP and .267 BAA. His ERA during the day is two full runs better, meaning that because of its significance, it’s definitely a notable trend that plays out consistently - and it’s not the result of one or two really, really bad performances either. His track record against the Nationals is also not that good, as while he has not faced them this year, he did make two starts against them in 2011, and the result was a 5.84 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 12.1 IP. All of these numbers point to him giving up at least a couple, and with the line being as low as 8, we only really need one of these starters to falter. Given the evidence I have provided, and the quality offenses involved, it’s a good bet to take and make.
Other 7/26 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
AJ Burnett vs Dallas Keuchel UNDER 8.5 - $24 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
2-2 yesterday, but down thanks to a lost best bet, which was actually still a solid bet no matter what. No. 1, I was 100-percent right in my bold prediction that rookie AJ Griffin, who could be viewed as a consistent unders guy from here on out the rest of the way pitching in Oakland, would go into Toronto and completely shut down that tough Blue Jays lineup on the road (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 Ks). Unfortunately, it’s just another beautiful bold prediction gone to waste, as Ricky Romero was absolutely shelled for literally the *worst* start of his entire career, which is just very unfortunate. Despite his shortcomings, it was the right bet to make, due to Oakland’s ranking in the bottom five in all of baseball against left-handed pitching, and Romero being significantly better pitching home at the Rogers Centre than on the road. But, apparently, I was wrong on him turning his season around, which probably won’t even happen, or at least until meaningless September games if he’s facing teams with garbage call-ups. We’ll see. In the meantime, let’s move on to Thursday, in which I only have two games from this shortened slate…
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers (Best Bet) - $58 for $50
Edwin Jackson vs Yovani Gallardo
OVER 8
I was hoping the line for this game would be 7.5, given that it’s two upper echelon National League pitchers involved here in a National League park, but we’ll just have to settle for 8, which is still okay because we can’t lose with a very possible 5-3 outcome. Edwin Jackson is someone who has been very consistent this year, but recently, he hit his first real rough patch of the season. Despite a very successful performance (7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 9 Ks on 7/21 vs Atlanta) in his last assignment, Jackson’s season took a sudden downward fall, as he was tagged for a whopping 16 runs over his previous three starts, spanning just 13 innings. Considering how reliable Jackson has been for the Nationals’ surge to the top of the NL East, it was certainly something that got into his mindset, and in my opinion, I don’t think he’s fully out of the rut just yet. It’s only natural for pitchers, even good ones, to go through somewhat extensive up-and-down runs, and considering Jackson’s shortcomings at Miller Park over the recent past, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him falter here. After all, Jackson was unsuccessful in two starts in Milwaukee in the 2011 playoffs (Combined numbers: 6 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 5 Ks), and if you think that occurred just because it was in the postseason, which is very possible for a lot of pitchers, then you obviously didn’t note that Jackson’s worst regular season start last year came - where else? - Miller Park, in which the veteran right-hander surrendered a ridiculous 14 hits and eight earned runs (Ten total) in seven innings. Having gathered all of this, it’s definitely appropriate to believe that Jackson doesn’t have many fond memories while working on the road against the Brewers, and given his recent struggles overall, those elements could lead to an unstable mindset, which does not lead to any consistent success whatsoever from a starting pitcher. Mentality, just as much as talent, is the most important factor in projecting a starting pitcher’s oncoming performance.
Well, that ended up being a lot more than I thought I had on Mr. Jackson concerning tonight’s start. I cannot say the same for his opposing hurler, proven ace Yovani Gallardo, but there still might be something that can help him propel this one into the win column for us over backers. First off, let me just say that just because I have the over here does not mean I respect Gallardo’s re-emergence as a top-tier National League pitcher. I actually give him a ton of credit for transforming his season, after that disastrous start in which he carried a mid-5’s ERA into mid-May. As a matter of fact, you might recall fans and analysts alike writing off Gallardo and believing his career was heading for a downward spiral. Of course, that ended up not being the case at all, as the Brewers’ right-hander now has a very comfortable ERA of 3.72, while posting a remarkable 122 strikeouts in 121 innings, which is enough to place him in the top five league leaders in that category. However, that doesn’t mean he’s no longer vulnerable to a bad start, as it’s very possible this Nationals lineup can get to him. No. 1, while Gallardo has always been better at home than on the road, there’s an interesting split stat in his 2012 performance that indicates he is not as effective in night games as he is during the day. At this point in the season, that’s a very relevant trend to take note of, considering Gallardo has actually made more starts at night (11), and in those outings, he has compiled a very mediocre 4.64 ERA with a very ugly 1.44 WHIP and .267 BAA. His ERA during the day is two full runs better, meaning that because of its significance, it’s definitely a notable trend that plays out consistently - and it’s not the result of one or two really, really bad performances either. His track record against the Nationals is also not that good, as while he has not faced them this year, he did make two starts against them in 2011, and the result was a 5.84 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 12.1 IP. All of these numbers point to him giving up at least a couple, and with the line being as low as 8, we only really need one of these starters to falter. Given the evidence I have provided, and the quality offenses involved, it’s a good bet to take and make.
Other 7/26 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
AJ Burnett vs Dallas Keuchel UNDER 8.5 - $24 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
