Friday: Let Me Explain My Foolishness YTD: 286-259, 59.1 units

Thursday: 2-5, -2 units

Really liked the Pirates game Thursday. Liked KC and Oakland but much less. Instead of settling on these 3 games, I had too much time on my hands(being off work). Started looking into other games, searching for angles and such. Thinking that maybe I was missing out on a great play- like Arizona. I had eliminated that one since Harvey was such an unknown (now we know he's good!), and eliminated Milwaukee- then played it because I thought Gallardo would out pitch Jackson early in the game(but the Nats are hot and the Brewers are not). In other words, I played way too many games for such a small card, and played games earlier eliminated for good reasons. Duh. This is my first season and I'll get it right some day.

Don't like Friday's card, but do like the day game tomorrow. I'd have more units on it, but St. Louis is coming off a grueling hot series with the Dodgers and the Cubs are rested. Nevertheless:

STL-1. One unit. The Cards just manhandled 2 very good lefties, Capuano and Kershaw. Now they face lefty Travis Wood coming off 2 bad starts(is he regressing to his old form?). They have also a remarkable 48:35 K:BB ratio the last 7 days. Shows remarkable contact rate and have hit tons of 2Bs and singles, walked a lot- all vs. good pitching. The Cubs meanwhile are hitting .198 the past week, and other than Soriano are in a hitting funk. Lance Lynn will be fine be cause he is rested and is coming off 3 great starts. Lynn is a constantly improving pitcher, and his command is "on" lately. This game is an identical matchup to last week's in St. Louis, won by the Cards 7-0. Cards BP has shown improvement lately as has the Cubs. This is a rival game and both teams will be up for it. Hopefully Freese plays.

Fred - you are doing the right things by examining your losses and mistakes. Not to play expert (because I am not), but try wagering on teams you truly believe can win and use the stats as guideline. Good luck to you

Toronto. ML. One unit. This play is a mostly because I think Carlos Villaneuva has possibly one of the best sliders in the mlb. Right now, he keeps the ball out of the middle of the plate so well that he has only given up 1 HR in his last 34 IPs. All of his pitches seem to move well. Also, hoping that Porcello has one of his off days which are about 50% career wise. Batters are hitting .311 vs. Porcello this year and this is just a bit above his yearly norm. I think the Tigers are hard to bet against because of their great lineup(that under produces), but they can't seem to stand success. Just when it looked like they were breaking out, they begin to lose or play .500 again. Jays have a slight edge in BP and home field.

Seattle/ KC- over 3.5. First 5 innings. One unit. Going against my self- imposed totals ban, but can't lay off this game. Guthrie is that bad, and Seattle is a much better team vs. RHP. Carp and Ackley might be breaking out of their slumps, and Saunders is fairly hot. I also think they might begin to play better now that Ichiro is no longer the center of attention and young hitters just need more and more ABs to develop. Blake Beavan had a great outing vs. Tampa, who were then hitting as badly as the Mariners, but he is also a pedestrian starter that needs to develop more movement on his stuff. KC may have gotten shut down by lefty Vargas last night, but I don't see it continuing tonight. They were hitting well prior to last night's game.

LAA: TT over 4(-125). Cobb has been awful. He took one off the shin in his last start with Seattle, who was in the throes of a horrible slump, and wasn't pitching well, then left the game. The Angels are weird in that Will Smith shuts them down, and then they batter a pretty hot Hochevar around. Cobb has exactly one good start in the last 2 months(vs. Miami). his velocity is down from last year and it seems to have affected his confidence. Angels still have a very tough lineup. 4 seems doable if you ask me. One unit.