The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - July 27, 2012 - YTD: 245-237-27

Search
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
2012 MLB O/U Record: 245-237-27, -$1,732 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

2-0 last night, but it doesn’t mean anything if I can’t keep it up. Fridays have treated me well for the most part, although this specific Friday has a special place in my mind. You can go ahead and skip these next couple of sentences, as they are virtually meaningless as it pertains to tonight’s card, but I especially remember this exact Friday in 2011 being one of my worst days of the entire year, which was a real rarity in that magical season I had, but this one still sticks out to me for being a disaster, capped off by a lost Francisco Liriano vs Gio Gonzalez under that ruined my night at the bar - didn’t even have to look it up in my paperwork to remember it. That being said, it is critical that not only do I keep up my momentum from yesterday, but I would especially like to avenge my losses from this exact Friday night last year…


Aaron Cook vs Phil Hughes OVER 10 - $44 for $40
I had a really good vibe for the over of this contest during my initial review of tonight’s slate last night, and am very pleased the line went down from 10.5 to 10 overnight. You see, Aaron Cook’s success with the Boston Red Sox is truly a mystery. While he does have a decent track record, which is admirable considering it came in Colorado, he’s never had the type of outstanding stuff that would warrant him being labeled a real quality pitcher. That especially rings true at this point in time in his latest tenure, that being as a starter in the mercurial Red Sox rotation, in which he has actually posted a very nice statline through six starts with the team. However, the fact is that most of his success from his starts is actually due to luck - literally. Afterall, when you only have three strikeouts- THREE! - in 36+ innings pitched, well, you’re due for some sort of beatdown. Furthermore, his .212 batting average of balls put in play is also quite a production of miraculous luck, which indicates that Cook’s joyride is about to come to an end. What better spot for that to happen than on a nationally televised MLB Network game at Yankee Stadium? I mean, it’s pretty much common sense. If you continue to let the opposing lineup put the ball in play, while neither striking them out nor walking them, you’re inevitably going to run into trouble, and a tendency like that should bring him to due justice against a powerful lineup like New York’s intimidating group. Meanwhile, Phil Hughes is set to throw for the Yankees, and considering his shortcomings against the Red Sox in his one and only start against them three weeks ago, I believe they’ll register at least a few runs off him. With at least one mighty crooked number on the scoreboard, that should be enough to secure this over, but I must warn you that over my years doing this, the Yankees have arguably been my worst team when it comes to over/unders, due to their extreme unpredictability. I see something here, though.


Other 7/27 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Stephen Fife vs Matt Cain UNDER [Waiting for line to drop; will still take at 6.5]
Jarrod Parker vs Zach Britton UNDER [Waiting for line to drop; will still take at 8.5]


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 

New member
Joined
Apr 29, 2008
Messages
5,135
Tokens
as a big red sox fan, if runs arent scored tonight, i will be shocked...gl tonight cat
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
as a big red sox fan, if runs arent scored tonight, i will be shocked...gl tonight cat

Thanks for the tip, skyla. Yes, come to think of it, I actually struggle with Red Sox over/unders as well (13-13-1 in Yankee over/unders last year; 10-15-3 in Boston over/unders last year, which was my worst record with any team), so any bit of advice you can give me concerning your team is greatly appreciated. My greatest successes come from those under-the-radar, predictable (At least to me) teams like Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego, and Cleveland. GL to you as well tonight, keep up that golden 2012 record of your's.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Well, unfortunately, it does not look like Vegas (Or simply just my sportsbook) is budging on Parker vs Britton, so I'm only going to be doing this action on it:

Jarrod Parker vs Zach Britton UNDER 8.5 - $20 for $21

Just a small bit of analysis before first pitch. The Athletics are one of the bottom five teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, and while they actually got to some lefties in Toronto over the past few days (Romero, Laffey), that is something the Law of Averages will get involved with, since their unusual great hitting vs lefties can't really be that extensive if it's been awful all season long. In addition, Zach Britton was fantastic at the beginning of last year before a long string of getting knocked around ultimately knocked him back into Triple-A, but his first start was promising, perhaps signalling that this once-prized prospect is ready to take off again. Speaking of taking off, Jarrod Parker has done just that, just as I predicted in the beginning of the year after his first couple of starts.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
In addition, from the 7 o'clock set, I would recommend Wells vs Zambrano over 8.5, Porcello vs Villanueva over 9, and Hamels vs Sheets under 7.5 (Won both of Sheets' starts since his return). I'm not taking them simply because I'm finally trying to establish some discipline, as I've bet far, far, farrr more games this year than last year at this point. I also want to avoid the inevitable crappy feeling I will experience when I match my number of losses from all of last year... in August. Trying to delay that as much as possible.
 

New member
Joined
Feb 12, 2009
Messages
4,368
Tokens
Gl today cat...with you sox/yanks over. Probably gonna chase that. Cant bring myself to bet an under in baltimore involving britton. Dude is a rag
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Gl today cat...with you sox/yanks over. Probably gonna chase that. Cant bring myself to bet an under in baltimore involving britton. Dude is a rag

Haha as he showed us in the first inning. Won't give up on that one, though, as Britton had a 7+ ERA in the first inning coming into tonight's action.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Because of Britton's bad first inning, and my decision not to take Porcello vs Villanueva over, I'm adding this one:

Cole Hamels vs Ben Sheets UNDER 7.5 - $21 for $17

Should be a close one. Hamels coming off that mega deal and must be feeling good mentally, especially with the Phillies suddenly playing good baseball again. And I've been flawless with Ben Sheets thus far and envision another nice start out of him as he continues his good-story comeback, especially pitching within the cozy confines of Turner Field.
 

New member
Joined
Feb 12, 2009
Messages
4,368
Tokens
Yea i played the first 5 over based on brittons terrible early game numbers...didnt expect they would get all 5 so quickly lol. Yanks/Sox are doin their usual damage.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Lol nice win moocow. Ah those five-inning over/unders, maybe one day I'll give in.

Anyway, NOT taking any 8 o'clock games, as I try to discipline myself, but if I had to take one of them, I would recommend Sale vs Darvish over 8.5. As incredible and reliable as Sale has been this year, especially in terms of unders, it appears the wheels are finally coming off a bit for him after his last start, and pitching in Texas to follow it up is certainly no immediate cure. Darvish obviously has been as good as advertised throughout this entire season (Except when he pitches in Seattle. WTF is up with that?) but I'm not really sure what to expect out of him.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 29, 2008
Messages
5,135
Tokens
Lol nice win moocow. Ah those five-inning over/unders, maybe one day I'll give in.

Anyway, NOT taking any 8 o'clock games, as I try to discipline myself, but if I had to take one of them, I would recommend Sale vs Darvish over 8.5. As incredible and reliable as Sale has been this year, especially in terms of unders, it appears the wheels are finally coming off a bit for him after his last start, and pitching in Texas to follow it up is certainly no immediate cure. Darvish obviously has been as good as advertised throughout this entire season (Except when he pitches in Seattle. WTF is up with that?) but I'm not really sure what to expect out of him.

Darvish has been better against teams that havent seen hime yet. I could be wrong but I think he is good tonight and yes, Sale may be getting tired
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Adding:

Niese vs Collmenter OVER 9 - $18 for $18

Anddd of course, as usual, the games I don't bet on and recommend are all... winning. Typical luck
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
And thankfully, I was able to scratchh and claw for that Cook vs Hughes over, even though I shouldn't have had to since it was, you know, 6-3 in the 4th. Hate sweating these out when I'm obviously 100-percent right from the start, but that's 2012 for ya
 

New member
Joined
Feb 12, 2009
Messages
4,368
Tokens
Crazy it probably would of lost if Yanks didnt score in btm 8. Red sox have become a terrible team.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Final bet of the night:

Stephen Fife vs Matt Cain UNDER 6.5 - $33 for $30

Only Fife's second Major League start but in his first one, he went pitch-for-pitch with Roy Halladay in an entertaining pitcher's duel. In his last minor league start, he struck out 12 (!) at Triple-A Albuquerque, so there is much supporting evidence in believing that Fife is ready to stick at the big-league level for quite some time. Meanwhile, Matt Cain has hit his first rough patch, but obviously it won't last too long, and being that he's at home against a team he usually pitches well against, well, that more likely will add up to another one of his signature quality starts.

And I WANT to go after that Gurthrie vs Beavan over 7. I mean, that is as fishy as a line as you will see. You guys all know that nobody knows Beavan more than I do (Remember, my No. 1 sleeper entering this season), and I know he's getting back on track after a dominant start in his return to the bigs against Tampa Bay five or six days ago. But Jeremy Guthrie has been mostly bad this entire year (For a good portion of his career, actually), so it boggles my mind why the line would be as low as 7, when a superior pitching matchup just LAST NIGHT (Mendoza vs Vargas) was the same exact line. Very, very curious decision on the part of Vegas and I won't be taking part in it. I love Beavan too much anyway to take an over of his so soon after returning to the Majors. He's a LEGITIMATE upper-rotation starter.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Rare instance of a bullpen holding on for an under of mine, as was the case in Hamels vs Sheets under 7.5 to make me a perfect 3-0 with Sheetsy. Niese vs Collmenter over pretty much has hit in the second inning, and hopefully this Fife vs Cain under can hit to really give me a momentum boost. GL to everyone the rest of the night
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Dominant day that obviously should've been more if not for the same old fucking bullshit... 100-percent right with that Fife vs Cain under until Ronald Belisario, one of the best set-up men in all of baseball with that microscopic 2.30 ERA, blows it in the eighth. Yes, obviously it happens, but why does it never happen in my favor at all this year when I have an over? The theme of 2012 rolls on...
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,766
Messages
13,438,796
Members
99,337
Latest member
hbs_solutions
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com