Saturday: Big Unit Plays and Lots of Them YTD: 289-260, + 60.9 units

Friday: 3-1, + 1.8 units

Risking more units Saturday than any one day this year. Could have a great day or could bomb. Follow or fade at your own risk.

Reds: -1 (-131). 5 units. Johnny Cueto's last really bad start was against the Rockies this year. Believe it or not, I think that will help him focus this game. Just like Joey Votto's loss has helped the Reds focus and go 9-2 without him. Cueto is as dominant a pitcher as there is in the majors right now. He hasn't given up a HR since May. Though the Rockies hit him this year, he shut them down for a 0 in 7 IPs last year. And the Rockies have gone cold. The last time they really hit a starter was Kip Wells about 5-6 games ago. But really they haven't well in the month of July. They're hitting .226 in their last 7 games and when is the last time the Rockies were this cold. They are even 20-30 at home this year. Arroyo usually bombs at Coors with a lifetime 8.00+ ERA, but he completely shut them down. The Reds bullpen is also a strength.
Almost every Red hitter is hitting better or about the same since Votto has gone out, and this road trip has seemed to revitalize their season. They are hitting .290 in their last 7 games and hit lefties pretty well. Friedrich has been tough against SD and on the road at times. At Coors he has a 8.23 ERA and hitters have a .362 BAA there. Maybe the light air affects the type of pitches he throws or maybe it's the horrid Rockies defense or maybe being young, he's not used to pitching in a hitter's park in a high elevation. Friedrich and the Rockies BP is no match for Cueto and the Reds' BP, especially as cold as the Rockies are now.

Yankees: RL. 3 units
Yankees-1. One unit. Taking a risk on the RL on this one only because Lester is just out of "has to win games". The Yankees know Lester like the back of their hands. His cutter is not breaking down, his fastball has lost velocity and command, and in the last 3 months he has only been his old self in 3 games- vs. the hapless Mariners, the A's when they were not hitting, and the Nats way back on June 10. He is truly a competitor but that just shows you how much he has lost. The Yankees have Sabathia going whom in the past the Red Sox have hit. But this Sox team is lucky to get 6 hits in a game no matter who pitches. Their hitting only .222 in their last 7 games, and even though the Yankees were underwhelming on their road trip, Lester (and Aaron Cook apparently ) is going to help them get hot again. With Ortiz out, Crawford still trying to get his groove and even Adrian Gonzalez cooling down the last 4 games- almost every Red Sox hitter is down in avg. the past week. The Toronto series took the wind out of them it seems. Yanks also have a BP edge. And a home field, confidence edge, and a "we always get up for the hated Red Sox edge".

Pittsburgh:-1 (-135). 5 units. I have laid off of all these Astros games in the past week or so when they"almost"won. In these games, it seems the game is all wrapped up in the ninth if the BP can just get 3 outs. Which they can't. Literally can't. If the Pirates are even close in any of these games, they are going to likely win. With the Astros weak hitting attack every team will almost always be close every game, and in the case of the Pirates, their great BP will keep it close or save the game. It doesn't seem to be fair. But that's another reason to like this game. Wandy is home. I have a feeling his teammates will really want to win this game for him against his old team. And Wandy will NOT want to be the guy to lose to the Astros when no one else ever does. He hasn't had meaningful game in years, but has still pitched very professionally and competitively. He also knows the Astros' hitters pretty well and will know how to attack them. Now let me get into the meat of the Astros lineup: Scott Moore, their cleanup hitter is a castoff from the Orioles because he couldn't hit(.209 last year, lots of Ks), JD Martinez, the 5th hitter, 80 Ks in 329 ABs and seems to have lost his power, Chris Johnson, who is hitting lately but has 91 Ks in just 337 ABs, and Maxwell, another castoff of the the Nats for hitting .144 last year. That's their 3-6 hitters. Gonzalez, their number 2 hitter is now in a 0-13 slump. And no real PHs since everyone with a pulse is already in the lineup.

Got cut off……. Armando Galaragga, the Astros starter, is the guy who got cheated out of a perfect game a few years ago in Detroit on an ump's bad call. That and an elbow injury seems to have ruined his career. Now, in the minors he is having command issues, giving up too many walks and HRs. 11 Walks in his last 16 IPs, and 6 HRs in his last 5 starts. The Pirates have cooled, but are still hitting the long ball and still have the great McCutcheon, who makes every one better. I don't think this game will be that close.

Not done with the big ones.
LAA: -1 (-115). 4 units.The Angels screwed me by scoring only 3 runs Friday night. On Saturday, they might only score 3-5 runs, but they will still likely win. Tampa continues to hit like sissies. Except for their 10 run outburst vs. that young Orioles pitcher they haven't had a good hitting game in about 8 or 10 games. They hit only .225 vs. lefties and Wilson is one of the best in the AL. The Angels' BP can finish the job. Meanwhile the Angels hit .275 vs. lefties(like Moore). Moore is going to be a stud, but right now his command is off and his raw stuff often ends up where he doesn't want it- giving up HRs and walks at a high rate. The Rays also have some poor fielders to make his job tougher. Other than Keppinger, the whole team is in a slump or doesn't hit lefties well. Upton is 0-14 vs. Wilson, Pena is just awful all the time, Joyce is a lefty hitter, Zobrist in a slump, and this goes on and on…. The Angels are a tough home team and have played a grueling schedule the past month, more than holding their own.

Oakland: ML. (+107). Colon has 4 or 5 great starts the last 2 years vs. the Orioles. Also, I think the Orioles are in bullpen shock from seeing their closer get hammered Friday night. In fact, the whole Orioles BP is looking more vulnerable than ever in the last month. The A's can hit early and late in games obviously. Tommy Hunter has 2 quality starts, but this guy can also be your home run derby pitcher. The A's hit HRs a lot- 14 in their last 7 games. They also will take the BBs to get on base for those extra runs when someone does hit a bomb. I also still like the A's bullpen, though Doolittle needs to stay in the pen- he has been a bust lately.

Nice underdog here:
Mets. ML. One unit.First 5 IPs. Should be a nice big plus number. Most of the D-Backs haven't seen Chris Young for years. He is one of the best 5 inning pitchers around. he's about 6'10" and throws a nice sinking ball that induces many grounders. Ian Kennedy has not fared well at home and the Mets lineup I think can match the D-Backs man for man. Can't take the whole game- Mets BP is going to be tested here.

good job with the write ups and good luck

o fred said:

Nice underdog here:
Mets. ML. One unit.First 5 IPs. Should be a nice big plus number. Most of the D-Backs haven't seen Chris Young for years. He is one of the best 5 inning pitchers around. he's about 6'10" and throws a nice sinking ball that induces many grounders. Ian Kennedy has not fared well at home and the Mets lineup I think can match the D-Backs man for man. Can't take the whole game- Mets BP is going to be tested here.

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+155 for Mets first 5

SF/ LAD: under 7(-118). One unit. The standard thinking is that these West Coast games are usually unders- well, they are. Especially with 2 decent pitchers, which Billingsley is and Zito is capable of. But this over play is the familiarity thing. These 2 teams have seen these 2 starters a lot- over 500 combined ABs. There's not much they haven't seen from Zito and Billlingsley, and there are a few guys on both teams that really hit them. Also, both of these lineups are hitting pretty well now, with some power, and are not your typical(of past years) weak Giant and Dodger lineups. Throw in 2 weaker than usual BPs and I think 7 is a very nice number.

o fred said:

SF/ LAD: under 7(-118). One unit. The standard thinking is that these West Coast games are usually unders- well, they are. Especially with 2 decent pitchers, which Billingsley is and Zito is capable of. But this over play is the familiarity thing. These 2 teams have seen these 2 starters a lot- over 500 combined ABs. There's not much they haven't seen from Zito and Billlingsley, and there are a few guys on both teams that really hit them. Also, both of these lineups are hitting pretty well now, with some power, and are not your typical(of past years) weak Giant and Dodger lineups. Throw in 2 weaker than usual BPs and I think 7 is a very nice number.

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I assume this play is over 7, not under 7?

TY and BOL

Catchn_Flops said:

I assume this play is over 7, not under 7?

TY and BOL

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Thanks Catchn for monitoring my plays. Yes, it's an over.