The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - July 28, 2012 - YTD: 248-239-27

2012 MLB O/U Record: 248-239-27, -$1,710 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

It’s hard to complain with being 3-2, but it really should’ve been a 4-1 job yesterday, as I was 100-percent right on that Stephen Fife vs Matt Cain under (Should’ve been rewarded for my correct bold prediction on a relatively unknown prospect like Fife. And as usual with my unders, the five-inning variation won), but Ronald Belisario, one of the game’s best set-up men and someone who possessed a low 2’s ERA, blew it in the eighth. Obviously it happens - it just always finds a way to happento me when it shouldn’t be happening so consistently - but that’s 2012 in a nutshell. In addition, I strongly recommended four other over/unders that I did not bet on, and of course, those four predictions ended up producing a 3-0-1 record. Why didn’t I bet them? As I mentioned yesterday, I’m trying to re-discipline myself, as I am well on pace of exceeding last year’s number of bets, not to mention trying to delay that inevitable shitty feeling when I reach last year’s loss total at some point in August. Sorry for the rambling, let me just move on to Saturday…


Anibal Sanchez vs Henderson Alvarez UNDER 9.5 - $30 for $26
Interesting Fact: Henderson Alvarez, a very underrated pitcher by the way despite his 2012 numbers, has started in six straight games that resulted in nine total runs or more. Five of those six saw the combined score surpass 12 runs every time. Why do I point that out? It’s quite an oddity for a starting pitcher to participate in that many consecutive games with those kinds of offensive outbursts, and it’s something the under-utilized Law of Averages salivates over. Not that we really should need that law to ring its hand on this one, as this just really seems like a game where there’s a lot of runs to play with, and two solid-at-worst pitchers who are the ones leading the effort. As I alluded to, Alvarez is much better than his numbers indicate; I’ve written about him in great detail before how he significantly idolizes and mimics the great Felix Hernandez (Same mannerisms, wind-up, style if you’ve ever watched Mr. Alvarez), and he was successful before posting incredibly ugly numbers since June. However, he’s not that bad and it’s about time he gets back on track - this is someone who I expect will be leaned on considerably in the coming years to propel Toronto back into glory. As for his opponent, well, it’s always a tough variable when a player is making his first start for a new team, especially mid-season, but Anibal Sanchez is a good pitcher who, based on some quotes I read, is genuinely excited to be competing for a playoff contender again. When you’re in that mindset, you’re more likely to display your best stuff in your first game in front of your new teammates, since you’re more emotionally invested into it than normal. Yes, these are two slugging offenses that you usually make people sweat out any under with them involved, but these are two pitchers that can potentially keep them within the boundaries of this room-for-error under.


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**

Gl today cat jr.

CATWINS said:

Gl today cat jr.

Click to expand...

Thank you Cat Sr, and GL to you as well

Cat what's your thoughts on Zona under 9? Its my only play today..Kennedy not at his best this year but has solid career numbers vs Mets over the years. And neither team scoring much lately besides last night...BOL today.

darkstar77 said:

Cat what's your thoughts on Zona under 9? Its my only play today..Kennedy not at his best this year but has solid career numbers vs Mets over the years. And neither team scoring much lately besides last night...BOL today.

Click to expand...

Ahh you caught me with one of the games I did not have as much a vibe on as most others. In fact, I consider this one an "in-betweener" for me, in that I'm in the middle and I could go either way. I actually envisioned somewhat of a 6-2/6-4/7-3 kind of game, which I know doesn't really help you, but sometimes there's games that I think could really end up a run above or below the listed total, and that's when I stay away.

I mean, on paper, the under looks pretty solid. You're right about Ian Kennedy with his good numbers against the Mets, and he's been in a groove as of late, especially over his last two starts. He's really settled in after a suspect beginning to 2012 that led to people questioning his great success last year. Plus, as you said, the Mets haven't been scoring much lately, and with the tailspin they're currently mire in, it's quite rare for a team to just suddenly burst out of that bubble, especially against a quality guy like the aforementioned Kennedy. Chris Young is usually a very consistent guy that usually pumps out lines around 6 IP, 3 R, so with a line as high as 9, that would be help for this specific matchup. Like I said, I really didn't have a feel for the game, which is why I'm staying away, but if you take the under, I wish you the best of luck and with the rest of your card today. I also hope you are not done in by that awful Mets bullpen, one of the few bullpens I take into high consideration when debating an under. They're a definitely a bottom-five bullpen in baseball.

I also recommend my best bet Matt Moore vs CJ Wilson under 7.5, which I'll be providing a detailed write-up for in just a bit, although I know you and I are a lot alike in that we rarely take bets from other people, so I'd only recommend you take it if you had the vibe for it as well ;-)

Okay, good win to begin the day with Sanchez vs Alvarez under 9.5 hitting. Wish I put a bit more on it at least, since that was such an extreme occurence for the Law of Averages to get involved (Referring to Henderson Alvarez' bizarre streak of starting six straight games that led to nine or more total runs being scored, five of which having 13 or more runs in them. Trust me, a very unusual streak). Anyway, here's how the rest of tonight shapes up...


Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Best Bet) - $114 for $90
Matt Moore vs CJ Wilson
UNDER 7.5

Well doesn’t this specific pitching matchup bring me back in a déjà vu moment to last year. For those that don’t know what I’m referring to or just plain forgot, it was this exact pitching matchup that started off the wonderful 2011 postseason, and I had the under of 8.5 in that game… only to lose by half a run because of poor defense that cost CJ Wilson in the beginning of the game, not to mention a garbage meaningless run with two outs in the ninth on a play that Elvis Andrus should’ve made against Johnny Damon (For those wondering, I was actually only 14-11 in playoff over/unders last year, and up a grand total of $5 for the postseason. That record is NOT included in my overall 2011 record, since playoff over/unders are completely different from regular season over/unders).

Anyway, moving away from the nostalgic trip, let me break down why this under in Anaheim tonight looks like a very good bet. Beginning with Matt Moore, if you’ve been following this guy as closely as I have, you’d notice that he’s made significant strides in progressing into the ace-type pitcher that most, including myself, projected him out to be. He struggled a bit throughout the first couple of months, amassing a mid-5’s ERA entering the latter days of May, but as expected, he settled down and improved upon his statline, which now sees him at 6-7 on the year, with a 4.23 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Of course, those numbers don’t really stand out at all, but they were worse early on. In any case, it’s his 106 Ks in 112 IP - another stat that supports his reputation as a big-time strikeout pitcher, which he had before entering the majors - that make him such a special youngster. Meanwhile, the reason for any of Moore’s struggles this season has everything to do with the number of free passes he offers up, as he has walked 55 up till this point. However, some of his most recent efforts suggest that he is finally cutting down on them considerably, enabling him to go deeper into ballgames and work at a quicker pace. In fact, it is tempo that is also crucial to Moore, which he was even cited as saying was a large reason for his outstanding performance in his last start against Seattle (8 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0BB, 7 Ks). He’s matched up against a fellow quick worker tonight, and considering his nice groove as of late, Moore can contribute more than enough towards a winning under.

CJ Wilson was the one who ended up on the losing end of that first matchup between these two last postseason, but considering his excellent numbers all across the board in 2012, it’s awfully tough for him to lose any game as far as this season is concerned. Look at the numbers: 9-6, 2.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 108:57 K:BB ratio in 131 IP. Not only that, he’s just been so remarkably consistent, only allowing more than three runs in a start twice the whole yearout of 21 total starts. The most likable trend when discussing the potential outlook for Wilson tonight is the fact that the Rays are simply bad against left-handed pitching. In actuality, they are third worst in hitting versus southpaws this year, clocking in with a lowly .225 mark. Also considering that they’ve scored three runs or less in five of their past six games, that means Tampa Bay is in a collective slump as a team, and if you do the math, a struggling team that does even worse against lefties, going up against one of the best lefties in all of baseball, can’t add up to much success offensively. This should be a solid pitcher’s duel to cap off the final Saturday night in July.


Other 7/28 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Bartolo Colon vs Tommy Hunter UNDER 9 - $35 for $30
Ross Ohlendorf vs Nathan Eovaldi UNDER 9 - $24 for $20


Also Looking At and Considering (Would Recommend, anyway):
Joe Blanton vs Mike Minor OVER 8
Bruce Chen vs Kevin Millwood OVER 7
Jordan Zimmermann vs Randy Wolf OVER 8


**May Still Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

Cat In your opinion what is the best Over on the board this evening?

savage55 said:

Cat In your opinion what is the best Over on the board this evening?

Click to expand...

Hmmm well unfortunately, I can't be of much assistance in that department, as I took zero overs tonight, but I would recommend those three overs I listed at the bottom of my article. GL with whatever you end up choosing

Just want to point out a VERY, VERY, VERY interesting statistic concerning one of tonight's starting pitchers, the remarkable Johnny Cueto.

Listen to this: Johnny Cueto, a clear candidate for the NL Cy Young this year, has made 20 starts in 2012. In ALL 20 STARTS, the comebined score of his games have always been nine runs OR less (And there have only been exactly nine runs scored twice). Why is that interesting? Well nobody studies this stuff more than I do, and I've never noticed a streak like that with any given pitcher in the years I've been doing this, so it's just extremely fascinating to me. How does that relate to tonight, you ask? Well, consider this...

The over/under for Cueto vs Friedrich tonight is 9.5. If you bet the under, you are basically betting that the same thing happens that has occured in every. single. one of Johnny Cueto's starts this year - that the total runs scored is nine or less. If you go against the grain, you are looking for a result to happen that has yet to take place in a Cueto start... and it's basically August already. I mean, I actually had a small vibe for the over, and considering the Law of Averages might rear its hand in this one, it's just a very, very unique scenario, one of which I've never seen before at this point in the season with an over/under.

Just throwing this out there because it's too good to withold. For those that bet against Cueto's streak, I wish you the best of luck. Friedrich, as I've written about before, is somewhat of an underrated pitcher with ability to keep him in the middle of somebody's rotation for years to come. Even so, I can see 7-3 in this one. One of Cueto's few off starts this year actually came against the Rockies as well earlier in the season.

Andd that's exactly what I expect, 4-0 performance. A vintage night

No Bad wins???
Party,,,,,great night

Thanks for the feedback on Zona under last night. Ill take the push after that frantic start. Just glad Putz didn't fuck me in the ninth.

Still in the process of writing my article for today so this is the only way I can get my one 1 o'clock over/under for 7/29 on here before posting my daily thread...

Clayton Richard vs Josh Johnson UNDER 7.5 - $22 for $20

Would also recommend Fister vs Cecil under 9, although that one will most likely be close, as I envision a 7-1/7-2/7-2 type of game. Halladay vs Hudson over 7.5 also looks tempting but not sure if I'll take that one. Anyway, thread for 7/29 to be posted in a bit with my best bet McDonald vs Harrell UNDER 8 (Whoelse did you think it would be? lol) and hopefully you guys see this post in time for today's early slate.