I wanted to comment on the below thread from the sportservice forum picks, comment follows writeup.
"SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +106 over SAN FRANCISCO
Barry Zito is 8-6 with an ERA of 3.75. What that confirms is that luck plays a big role in the surface stats of numerous pitchers. When you look under the hood, the truth about these pitchers is revealed and eventually they all get exposed.
Zito has issued 50 walks and struck out 66 in 113 innings for an awful BB/K ratio and just as awful strikeout rate. He has a slight fly-ball bias profile to go along with an xERA of 4.91. Zito has four quality starts in his past five games and it simply cannot last. This is not a rejuvenated pitcher, it’s an extremely lucky one with an 82% strand rate and that has seen balls being hit right at people all season long with men on base.
The Dodgers took the opener last night, 5-3. They’ve seen Zito twice already this year and they’re much more dangerous now with Hanley Ramirez in the lineup. Pitchers now have to deal with a 3-4-5 of Matt Kemp, Andre Either and Ramirez. Chad Billingsley picked up right where he left off since missing two weeks with elbow inflammation, throwing a gem against a difficult opponent in St. Louis He's posted xERA's under 4.00 every month except for May, and he’s displayed a resurgent strikeout rate this year with 104 K’s in 111 innings. Barry Zito should not be favored over Chad Billingsley".
Summing up the writeup, the analyst basically says "Zito is lucky, and I predict his luck runs out today."
I disagree, experience has taught me to go with what is happening i.e. Zito's lucky run will continue rather than end.
Back in the late 70s Oklahoma's WishBone was racking up 500 yards on the ground weekly, up and down the field they ran only to effing fumble the ball inside the 10 yard line over and over. They'd win games but not cover. Anyone looking at the box score, would comment "Holy shit IF they didnt fumble the ball inside the 10 so many times, they'd woulda dropped 80 points on Nebraska easy. I saw 3 consecutive box scores of 500 yds+ and fumbles inside the 10.
I stepped up big before the 4th game my reasoning being, " This Wishbone is going to drop at least 90 points on the worst run defense in the Big 12! (or whatever conference they were in, back in the day) What happened? A record 700 yds on the ground and a record 8 fumbles. (exaggeration to make the point) They didnt cover. Needles to say, "Lesson learned."
Zito might not win today, but backing him is the way to bet.
(<)<
"SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +106 over SAN FRANCISCO
Barry Zito is 8-6 with an ERA of 3.75. What that confirms is that luck plays a big role in the surface stats of numerous pitchers. When you look under the hood, the truth about these pitchers is revealed and eventually they all get exposed.
Zito has issued 50 walks and struck out 66 in 113 innings for an awful BB/K ratio and just as awful strikeout rate. He has a slight fly-ball bias profile to go along with an xERA of 4.91. Zito has four quality starts in his past five games and it simply cannot last. This is not a rejuvenated pitcher, it’s an extremely lucky one with an 82% strand rate and that has seen balls being hit right at people all season long with men on base.
The Dodgers took the opener last night, 5-3. They’ve seen Zito twice already this year and they’re much more dangerous now with Hanley Ramirez in the lineup. Pitchers now have to deal with a 3-4-5 of Matt Kemp, Andre Either and Ramirez. Chad Billingsley picked up right where he left off since missing two weeks with elbow inflammation, throwing a gem against a difficult opponent in St. Louis He's posted xERA's under 4.00 every month except for May, and he’s displayed a resurgent strikeout rate this year with 104 K’s in 111 innings. Barry Zito should not be favored over Chad Billingsley".
Summing up the writeup, the analyst basically says "Zito is lucky, and I predict his luck runs out today."
I disagree, experience has taught me to go with what is happening i.e. Zito's lucky run will continue rather than end.
Back in the late 70s Oklahoma's WishBone was racking up 500 yards on the ground weekly, up and down the field they ran only to effing fumble the ball inside the 10 yard line over and over. They'd win games but not cover. Anyone looking at the box score, would comment "Holy shit IF they didnt fumble the ball inside the 10 so many times, they'd woulda dropped 80 points on Nebraska easy. I saw 3 consecutive box scores of 500 yds+ and fumbles inside the 10.
I stepped up big before the 4th game my reasoning being, " This Wishbone is going to drop at least 90 points on the worst run defense in the Big 12! (or whatever conference they were in, back in the day) What happened? A record 700 yds on the ground and a record 8 fumbles. (exaggeration to make the point) They didnt cover. Needles to say, "Lesson learned."
Zito might not win today, but backing him is the way to bet.
(<)<
