Dog Days Of August

So I am a little early being that it is only July 30.....Will try running this thread for a week focused on dogs and of course when you play the dog always play the ARL.

Here's a fun fact - When the line drops on a AL Home favs that team wins 46.7% of the time. Your odds get better of cashing the dog if the Fav ML drops and closes between -100-129 and -150-179

Baltimore +160 1*
Baltimore +218 .25*

Detroit +105 1*
Detroit +153 .25*

Here's another fun fact When the line goes up on a AL Road fav that team wins 49.5% of the the time. Your odds get better of cashing when the dog if the Fav ML rises and closes between -100-119 & -150-169. Also of note -110 to -139 is a good to if the dog the drops into that range.

Oakland +119 1*
Oakland +255 .25*

There is no definitive edge for the dog in any over all line movement in the NL. However, there will be a few spot plays stay tuned for them over time.

Gl today most days will have loosing %'s but we could make + money

MLB FAVS YTD 56.1%
MLB FAVS L7 Days 64.7%

Gl guyz


powerz

Good job. Keep'em coming

Wow the dogs were just barking last night they were howling. Went 2-4 and picked up +1.04

Keep in mind I do a bit of handicapping on this games but it is the line movement that draws my attention

Tuesday - 4 pack

the Yankees have been without Arod for 5.5 games during that sapn they have gone 2-4 and not Texieria may not start, NY is 3-8 in their last 11 & Nova has given up 5 ER in his last two outings vs Baltimore. The O's are streaky club and yes tillman had some bad results vs the Yankees last year but this year he has been a different pitcher his ER is way down and that is a testament to the defense behind him b/c his SO and BB are similiar to his career %'s. And of course the Yankees ML movement on my chart favours the dog.

BALTIMORE ML +161 1*
BALTMORE ARL +235 .25*

Tbay and Oak went 14 innings last night and only squeaked out a 4-3 game. The length of that game only supports this play much more, I remember listening to a few old mariners talking about the old days and they said that game was not the hard one off a long east coast road trip. It was game 2 - now the Rays have been basking in some west coast sunshine for a week where as the A's just got home on Sunday kissed the girlfriend walked the dog and hit their familiar haunts and then played a 5 hour ball game - They will be dead tired today, look for shields to given them a rough time. Millone is coming off a rare bad outing is this more of things to come, he has been wicked good at home with an ERA under 1 and the team is 7-1 when he starts but he is also upto 128 innings in only his second season fatigue will set in soon he will be one to watch. AL Home favs that drop below -110 have 10 wins in 31 starts the ARL has been covered in 18 of those 31... this is my Best bet today

TAMPA +102 2*
TAMPA ARL +173 .5*

St louis is now 1-5 in the last 6 road games and 2-10, Jeff Francis is having a bit of a bounce back year with his old club he is 9-1 vs the Cards and that should give him some confidence heading into tonights match up. The Cards ML is in a dangerous spot When the ML drops on -130ish NL Road fav they have only won 4 out of 12

COL ML +124 1*
COL ARL +245 .25*

Arizona is now 8-3 in their last 11 6-2 in their last 8 at LA they are only 3.5 back of the dodgers and coming on strong. Their OBP vs Lefties is .342 and .383 in the last 10. The Numbers on a NL home fav with a plunging ML between -110 and -119 is 23 wins out of 53 starts. Go snakes!

ARIZ ML +103 1*
ARIZ ARL +180 .25*

Tread carefully here guys remember we are going go below .500 on most of these plays. There are days we will be swept & I am a bit nervous going back tot the well with two dogs who won yesterday. The goal is to be up a few units before we get swept..

MLB FAVS YTD 55.9%
MLB FAVS L7 Days 57.4%

Okay one more let's really put our Profiles to the test. Who's worse Houtson or Milk - Prior to last nights game both teams had dropped 9 of 10, but what I have noticed about houston is they have been pretty scrappy in their last 5. In a game that s more than likely to be decided by the bullpens are you willing to lay -230 on 6.11 era pitcher on team who may not have their best player Ryan Braun? Of course not but the books set this up so that you think Parlay or RL well here is the bad news.

NL home teams with a ML north of -220 and dropping are 1-1/0-2 read that RL Win -ML Win / Dog Win - Dog win by 2 or more. So whats the play?

Houston +1.5 +100 1*
Houston ML +205 .5*
Houston ARL +325 .25*

Keep in mind the dog has won 2 of these games both by more than -1.5 and over all records 1-3 for the fav to cover the RL - This game wont be over til the last out in the 9th and I am expecting Houston to come away with a W at least its a 50/50 shot, use that +1.5 to hedge the bet and blow up some RL bets.... hahaha

I hope I don't go go 0-5 today, I gotta buy Sharky dinner when I get to Vegas in 2 weeks.

Gl guys

Powerz

Actually went 4-2 last night right?

What was i thinking backing houston yesterday the line actually closed up over opening so the profile changed and the play was a looser but on the bright side the day was positive.

5-4 +2.56* - MTD now 7-8 +3.60*

So far this has been fun - Betting on games adds a component of excitement as we all know, Handicapping and then doing a write up and putting your self on the line adds some extra spice. I was a buzz yesterday, thinking about the night games it was a good feeling I think if the feeling goes away while posting i will stop for a bit as it will be a sign.

Anyways on to today the dogs had another good crashing the party in 6 games - how about the angels and O's putting a beat down on the division rivals for the second straight day. I was also spot on with the Rays game Oakland looked lifeless in the 2nd game off a roadie.

As for today I only like one game

Minny +115 3*
Minny +233 .5*

Basically putting the profits of the last two days on this play.

Scott Diamond has been under the radar all year n the daytime his numbers are sharp and the 5-0 1.82 era 1.05 whip. The only drawback to this play is that the White sox have seen him 3X in the last two years and he is only 1-2 vs them.

Really though this is a play against Peavy - who's numbers rise in the daytime, he is 1-4 in his last 5 road starts and his last 3 outings have seen his era jump over 4.50. The reason for that is Peavy threw 1131 innings in July in 10 games that is an avg of 113 innings per game this guy is a work horse in fact he is coming off back to back games where he threw north of 120 pitches uhhhhhohhhhh.

On top of all that his last outing was against Minny he pitched very well went 125 allowing only 2 runs, ( i should not that was in 6 innings) but when a pitcher has to turn around and throw again against the same club in a short time span we have opportunity. The Whites Sox are in a dangerous spot a AL road Fav with a rising ML in the -120's that spot is 1-1 / 2-7 this season, I think this is going to be a big win for Minny as they want to hold the division leader down while at the same time picking up Diamond who has been a stud for them all year long. Minny heads out on the road after today and would love to win their second straight home series, to salvage something from a miserable year.


Go Twins and gl today guyz

Powerz

liked min as well,, thought diamond would pitch well and he did,, just min could not score,
thanks for your effort, keep up the good work powerz

Thanks Fly - Too bad we didnt cash they had chances late.

Did not see anything I liked yesterday. Month Todate 7-10 +.1*

Wish I had came back with Minny yesterday, and I maybe a day late and dollar short here but Doubront is a high pitch per inning guy and against the Twins who can play small ball and be patient at the plate I got take a stab at this play. I watched the game last Sunday and I thought to myself to definitely fade Felix in his next start.

AL home teams with Money line rising into the -180's are .500 this season at home.

Minny +169 1*
Minny -1.5 +235 .25*

Why did the Tigers open at -140???? You have a team coming in leaking oil all over the place having dropped 6 in a row and you have the edge in pitching match up.

Again this maybe a bad idea but AL Home teams with a rising ML into the -150's went 2-0 / 3-2 in July. I'll take a shot at the Indians on the ML against a division rival.

CLEV ML +141 1.25*

Okay One fav... Seattle was 14-6 since the allstar break they had the second best record in the AL after oakland during that time surprised? I sure was when I heard that, but when I Looked at their record they play KC 8 times and went 7-1 then they swept the jays who are slumping and but against PO calibre teams they went 4-5 - Tampa, Tex and NYY.

Here are a few NYY trends for you....
as a home favorite of -225 to -250
2-0 This season | 15-1 Last 3 seasons

when playing with a day off
10-1 This season

And for Seattle...
as a road underdog of +200 to +225
1-2 This season | 1-6 Last 3 seasons

as a road underdog of +225 to +250
0-0 This season | 0-8 Last 3 seasons


when playing with a day off
2-7 This season

Millwood Team has 2 wins in 10 starts and is 3-7 against the RL vs the Yankees
CC is 6-3 vs the M's all 6 wins covering the RL....

If you like M's to win fine but I thnk the Yanks continue the hot bats that started on Wednesday and win by 2 or more.

NYY -RL -123 3.5*

Dogs 8-12 .29
Run lines 1-0 +3.5

Been on the road the last two days did not have time to post.

Today I like the Dodgers a lot. I was looking for reasons to play against the Dodgers and I just could not find one

Blanton has been decent and has pitched well in Chavez Ravine in the past.
dale Scott behind home plate Favs north of 180 are 7-1
Germano routinely use to get knocked around by the Dodgers when he was Padre. Long time ago but I think I gotta try this play.

LAD -1 -129 5*

Gl guys and lets go blue

I think every pitcher that went to a different team did not win their 1st game.I like cubs +1 1/2.

good catch Mokoman. ive noticed that also. but it is still early

mokoman said:

I think every pitcher that went to a different team did not win their 1st game.I like cubs +1 1/2.

Click to expand...

Yes but with blanton pitch well in La and being in the nl I thought he would be okay 1-0 cubs

Alot of big dogs winning today.This could be another 1.I want to take st.louis tonight but waiting till these games go final.

Cubs BP gifts the dodgers a 3 spot hopefully Brandon League keeps the cubbies at bay.

dodgers BP returns the favour 5-4 cubs

Blue strike back 6-5 cubs +1.5 looking good

With everyone betting Cards I will take Brewers and prey. Hell I'm even going to take Brewers 1st 5 innings. (<)<

Dogs 8-12 .29
Run lines 1-0 +3.5

Pushed my last time out on Sunday - was really too busy this week to post.
The NL HOME FAV with a line moving up into the -220's is 8-3/0-0 - this is my Best bet
SFG -1 -155 3.9*/ 2.5*

The rest are AL ml Dogs
AL home favs line dropping into the teens 11-3 / 5-17 so far in aug they are 1-0 / 3-1
KC +109 1* ARL +171 .25*
OAK +109 1* ARL +177 .25*
SEA +108 1* ARL +178 .25*

AL ROAD FAVS - line rising into the 160's 3-1 / 2-3

CLEV +146 1*

AL ROAD FAVS - line rising into the 140's 5-3 / 4-5 so far in aug 0-1 / 1-3

TOR +126 1*

AL home favs line dropping into the -120's 12-2 / 3-10

DET +115 1* ARL +179 .25*

GL guyz lets grind out a 5-2, 4-3 night

Powerz