2012MLB O/U Record: 252-241-27, -$1,643 (Been makingbigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, surprising 0-2 performance yesterday (And, as usual, was 2-0 on the over/unders I recommended but did not bet on) to kind of halt my 9-2 run, or was it not surprising? No. 1, I was 100-percent right about that Clayton Richard vs Josh Johnson under, before it was blown by the bullpens in the later innings, which obviously happens - I just can’t stand how it continues to happen to me almost every single day (While rarely ever happening in my favor when I take an over) when it never happened this consistently only a year ago - but again, that’s 2012 in a nutshell with these historically bad bullpens. No. 2, I take full responsibility in losing that best bet James McDonald vs Lucas Harrell under, since, as you guys know, those are two of my top five favorite pitchers in all of baseball who were also two of my top five sleepers in all of baseball entering 2012, so even though I’ve been dominant with them (And, as usual, I was right on a quality Mr. Harrell, aka baseball’s best-kept secret), it’s only human nature to have personal bias when taking their matchups into consideration, which naturally keeps you from perfection. So, that one’s 100-percent on me, but enough dwelling on yesterday, it’s time to begin a new week…
Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics (Best Bet)
David Price vs AJ Griffin
UNDER 6.5
Okay, if you tail me on this one, we’re going to be treading some dangerous waters, as the Rays have scored three runs or less in seven of their last eight games. While that sounds good on paper as it pertains to our bet here, usually I find teams breaking out of unusual trends like that at the start of a new week (Since they got kind of reset themselves) and/or when it becomes more popular knowledge to the public (Although I pointed this out two days ago; now they’re certainly overdue). Furthermore, taking an under on a game with a number below than 7, let alone in an American League park, is also a very risky, and sometimes nerving, proposition, but inthis specific contest, I know - no, I guarantee - that this won’t be any sort of 6-3/5-4/7-1 kind of affair, meaning that if we lose, it’s going to be very, very close, automatically making this one a very good bet no matter what.
Let’s start with the man who should make anyone feel comfortable taking his under, that being perennial Cy Young candidate David Price. With another marvelous season under his belt, or at least up till August, the Tampa Bay ace has once again proven that he is indeed, without question, one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, and dare I say it, he might be the best left-hander in the game (Previously I thought it was Clayton Kershaw but Price is having the better year, albeit very slightly). Price has been so remarkably consistent this year that he’s only allowed more than three runs in a start just twice, and that’s out of a total of 20 starts. In addition, he has registered going seven innings in 14 of those starts, which is just outstanding to me - when you have one of your starters going that deep into ballgames that consistently, well, that clearly means he’s very special, and over these past few years, David Price has made every effort in proving that to be 100-percent true. Right now, actually, the Rays’ southpaw is working on a streak of six consecutive starts where he’s gone seven or more, and considering the Athletics, despite their hot hitting as of late, are one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching in all of baseball, that should bode well for Price’s impact on this under, not to mention potentially extending his streak going seven strong yet another start.
In my opening paragraph, I mentioned Lucas Harrell, one of my top sleepers entering 2012, being baseball’s best-kept secret, but because of my affection and obsession for him, that statement might be a little exaggerated. In actuality, baseball’s best-kept secret may actually be opposing David Price tonight, that being the woefully underrated AJ Griffin. Yes, a not-so-high-ranked prospect that only debuted just over a month ago has taken the baseball world by storm, or at least the ones that actually pay attention, which apparently aren’t too many because somehow, this guy has still fallen under the radar. And I’m not sure how that’s possible, take a look for yourselves: In his six starts to begin his Major League career, Griffin has amassed a 3-0 record with a 2.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an impressive 29:8 K:BB ratio in 36 innings of work. Perhaps most sparking of all is that current streak Griffin is working on; I mentioned how his opposing hurler has put together a current streak of six consecutive starts going seven innings, but Griffin is actually on the same page as that, recording exactly six innings in all six of his starts! That actually might even be more impressive than what Price has done, considering this run from Griffin has been put together right out of the gate to open his career. That’s incredible. Luckily for us, it does not appear that Griffin will be slowing down any time soon, as he is coming off arguably his best performance, in which he struck out nine against the BlueJays, while surrendering just three hits and no runs. If you think he’s been doing this against easy competition, guess again. First of all, that dazzling previous start came in Toronto, and he’s also had showings against the Rangers (On the road) and the Yankees that would lead you to believe this guy has a nice, long career ahead of him towards the top of the A’s rotation. My worst-case scenario is 5-2, which is why I wish the line was 7 (If it was, I’d put A LOT more on this game), but since I primarily see a score within that range, that means this under is a good bet no matter what. If we lose, it’ll be very close, but since most of my envisioned scores sit below the 6.5 barrier, that should put us in line for a win.
Other 7/30 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Cole De Vries vs Jose Quintana OVER 9 - $22 for $20 (I discovered Jose Quintana, and wrote about him, during his first-ever big-league appearance when he was pitching in a mop-up role earlier this year and said he should be starting… couldn’t have been anymore right. Meanwhile, I’ve been solid pinpointing when Cole De Vries would have an off start)
Bud Norris vs Marco Estrada UNDER 8.5 - $23 for $20 (Nobody knows Bud Norris, my favorite pitcher in baseball, better than I do. Plus, considering both of these guys have an ERA close to 5, Vegas thinks more highly of the matchup by NOT making the line 9. Very key)
Would Also Recommend:
Ricky Romero vs Hisashi Iwakuma UNDER 7.5 (Ricky Romero has hit rock-bottom; he can’t go any lower. Based on his quotes, he’s actually quite disgusted with himself, and considering he’s a solid pitcher who’s actually a perfectionist if you’ve seen him as much as I have on the mound, he WILL turn this around. And, uh, he kind of has to or he most likely loses his spot in the rotation. I’m laying off because I could see a 7-1 ballgame)
Trevor Cahill vs Aaron Harang OVER 7.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a questionconcerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every singleday and night**
2011MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, surprising 0-2 performance yesterday (And, as usual, was 2-0 on the over/unders I recommended but did not bet on) to kind of halt my 9-2 run, or was it not surprising? No. 1, I was 100-percent right about that Clayton Richard vs Josh Johnson under, before it was blown by the bullpens in the later innings, which obviously happens - I just can’t stand how it continues to happen to me almost every single day (While rarely ever happening in my favor when I take an over) when it never happened this consistently only a year ago - but again, that’s 2012 in a nutshell with these historically bad bullpens. No. 2, I take full responsibility in losing that best bet James McDonald vs Lucas Harrell under, since, as you guys know, those are two of my top five favorite pitchers in all of baseball who were also two of my top five sleepers in all of baseball entering 2012, so even though I’ve been dominant with them (And, as usual, I was right on a quality Mr. Harrell, aka baseball’s best-kept secret), it’s only human nature to have personal bias when taking their matchups into consideration, which naturally keeps you from perfection. So, that one’s 100-percent on me, but enough dwelling on yesterday, it’s time to begin a new week…
Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics (Best Bet)
David Price vs AJ Griffin
UNDER 6.5
Okay, if you tail me on this one, we’re going to be treading some dangerous waters, as the Rays have scored three runs or less in seven of their last eight games. While that sounds good on paper as it pertains to our bet here, usually I find teams breaking out of unusual trends like that at the start of a new week (Since they got kind of reset themselves) and/or when it becomes more popular knowledge to the public (Although I pointed this out two days ago; now they’re certainly overdue). Furthermore, taking an under on a game with a number below than 7, let alone in an American League park, is also a very risky, and sometimes nerving, proposition, but inthis specific contest, I know - no, I guarantee - that this won’t be any sort of 6-3/5-4/7-1 kind of affair, meaning that if we lose, it’s going to be very, very close, automatically making this one a very good bet no matter what.
Let’s start with the man who should make anyone feel comfortable taking his under, that being perennial Cy Young candidate David Price. With another marvelous season under his belt, or at least up till August, the Tampa Bay ace has once again proven that he is indeed, without question, one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, and dare I say it, he might be the best left-hander in the game (Previously I thought it was Clayton Kershaw but Price is having the better year, albeit very slightly). Price has been so remarkably consistent this year that he’s only allowed more than three runs in a start just twice, and that’s out of a total of 20 starts. In addition, he has registered going seven innings in 14 of those starts, which is just outstanding to me - when you have one of your starters going that deep into ballgames that consistently, well, that clearly means he’s very special, and over these past few years, David Price has made every effort in proving that to be 100-percent true. Right now, actually, the Rays’ southpaw is working on a streak of six consecutive starts where he’s gone seven or more, and considering the Athletics, despite their hot hitting as of late, are one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching in all of baseball, that should bode well for Price’s impact on this under, not to mention potentially extending his streak going seven strong yet another start.
In my opening paragraph, I mentioned Lucas Harrell, one of my top sleepers entering 2012, being baseball’s best-kept secret, but because of my affection and obsession for him, that statement might be a little exaggerated. In actuality, baseball’s best-kept secret may actually be opposing David Price tonight, that being the woefully underrated AJ Griffin. Yes, a not-so-high-ranked prospect that only debuted just over a month ago has taken the baseball world by storm, or at least the ones that actually pay attention, which apparently aren’t too many because somehow, this guy has still fallen under the radar. And I’m not sure how that’s possible, take a look for yourselves: In his six starts to begin his Major League career, Griffin has amassed a 3-0 record with a 2.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an impressive 29:8 K:BB ratio in 36 innings of work. Perhaps most sparking of all is that current streak Griffin is working on; I mentioned how his opposing hurler has put together a current streak of six consecutive starts going seven innings, but Griffin is actually on the same page as that, recording exactly six innings in all six of his starts! That actually might even be more impressive than what Price has done, considering this run from Griffin has been put together right out of the gate to open his career. That’s incredible. Luckily for us, it does not appear that Griffin will be slowing down any time soon, as he is coming off arguably his best performance, in which he struck out nine against the BlueJays, while surrendering just three hits and no runs. If you think he’s been doing this against easy competition, guess again. First of all, that dazzling previous start came in Toronto, and he’s also had showings against the Rangers (On the road) and the Yankees that would lead you to believe this guy has a nice, long career ahead of him towards the top of the A’s rotation. My worst-case scenario is 5-2, which is why I wish the line was 7 (If it was, I’d put A LOT more on this game), but since I primarily see a score within that range, that means this under is a good bet no matter what. If we lose, it’ll be very close, but since most of my envisioned scores sit below the 6.5 barrier, that should put us in line for a win.
Other 7/30 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Cole De Vries vs Jose Quintana OVER 9 - $22 for $20 (I discovered Jose Quintana, and wrote about him, during his first-ever big-league appearance when he was pitching in a mop-up role earlier this year and said he should be starting… couldn’t have been anymore right. Meanwhile, I’ve been solid pinpointing when Cole De Vries would have an off start)
Bud Norris vs Marco Estrada UNDER 8.5 - $23 for $20 (Nobody knows Bud Norris, my favorite pitcher in baseball, better than I do. Plus, considering both of these guys have an ERA close to 5, Vegas thinks more highly of the matchup by NOT making the line 9. Very key)
Would Also Recommend:
Ricky Romero vs Hisashi Iwakuma UNDER 7.5 (Ricky Romero has hit rock-bottom; he can’t go any lower. Based on his quotes, he’s actually quite disgusted with himself, and considering he’s a solid pitcher who’s actually a perfectionist if you’ve seen him as much as I have on the mound, he WILL turn this around. And, uh, he kind of has to or he most likely loses his spot in the rotation. I’m laying off because I could see a 7-1 ballgame)
Trevor Cahill vs Aaron Harang OVER 7.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a questionconcerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every singleday and night**
