The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 1, 2012 - YTD: 253-244-27

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 253-244-27, -$1,720 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Despite losing my only bet yesterday (And by - what else? - a measly run, extending my country-leading number in that department), which was only for the minimum anyway, I’m proud of the discipline I showed, as last night simply truthfully was not a slate I saw well. All of us who bet literally every single day of the entire season, whether it be on this site or anywhere else, will always have a day once in awhile where nothing just sticks out, and that’s perfectly fine. The key is to minimize the damage and not force additional bets, so in that regard, I’m content with the final results, although I could have won that Shields vs Milone under with that beautiful 11-strikeout complete game shutout gem from Big Game James. That said, it’s time to move on… to AUGUST?! (Chris Berman voice he uses when there’s an upset occurring. “24-10… BROWNS?!”) Can’t believe how quick these past four months have gone, and that there’s only two more left…


Houston Astros @ Milwaukee Brewers - $35 for $30
Jordan Lyles vs Mike Fiers
UNDER 8.5

There have been quite a few stand-out rookie pitchers in 2012 (Let me use this as another segue way to plug the grea tLucas Harrell), and without question, one of them has been Mike Fiers of the Brewers, a 27-year old right-hander who has just been plain excellent. For the season, Fiers is 4-4 with a microscopic 1.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, with an absolutely dazzling 67:16 K:BB ratio in 66 innings. He’s been so consistent, in fact, that he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since June 9, and over that stretch, he’s yielded more than a run just once in eight starts. Impressive indeed, and dare I say, potential NL Rookie of the Year? He certainly deserves a significant chunk of votes.

Then there’s Jordan Lyles, who, despite being five-years younger, is considered to be in his sophomore season after making 15 starts in 2011, and despite his 2-7 record, 5.54 ERA, and 1.51 WHIP this year, actually hasn’t been that bad. I’ll even go as far as saying that coming into the 2012 season, I had Lyles pegged as an unspectacular bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher, but after watching him these past couple of months, I have changed my tune and believe there’s promise in the career of this young Astros’ righty. Lyles had a really good month of June, posting a respectable 3.72 ERA, and it’s also where both of his wins this season have come in. His 7.22 ERA in July is a little misleading, as he had a couple ofreally nice outings, including one against Milwaukee in which he contained the Brew Crew to six hits and two runs over seven innings, tied for his longest effort of the year. He actually pitched into the seventh of his most recent start against the Pirates, when he was cruising into the fifth before running into trouble, which seems to be a theme in a lot of his starts. As long as he can minimize the damage late in his assignments, he is more than capable of contributing a quality start, and matched up with a sensational youngster like Fiers, there’s room to work with in trying to secure an under of 8.5.


Other 8/1 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Wade LeBlanc vs Ben Sheets OVER 7.5/8 [Wait for line to drop, which it probably will]
Carlos Villanueva vs Blake Beavan UNDER7 [Not sure on price yet]


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a questionconcerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 

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Lyles 0-5 this year on the road with ERA close to 7. Not saying you will lose your under but doesn't seem to be much value in that game.
 
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Thoughts on Cws/min o/u 8 ... I'm on the under

Sorry, been at work so I just saw this. Absolutely would have leaned on the under, that's a very high line for a Jake Peavy start, and Scott Diamond is a legit quality starter. Just didn't have the feel for it
 
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Lyles 0-5 this year on the road with ERA close to 7. Not saying you will lose your under but doesn't seem to be much value in that game.

Agreed my man. But that's such an erratic number for an improving fine youngster that I believe he'll bring it down at some point, as he's shown signs of making decent progress, and considering how money Fiers has been since he came up, there's a solid opportunity for an under. Agree with what you said about the value; would've been much, much better if the line was 9 to protect us from 5-4/6-3
 
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Apologies on the lost under in Lyles vs Fiers, as in a rarity, I was just plain wrong (Although right on Fiers). Just shake it off and move to the next one.

Wade LeBlanc vs Ben Sheets OVER 7.5 - $39 for $35
Okay, I don't like dealing with unusual variables, but I will in this one. Of course, the variable I'm referring to is the strict pitch count that is placed on former Padre great Wade LeBlanc, who I'm happy for to see back in a starting gig, even if it's only temporary, but I always thought he was pretty good in San Diego. Unfortunately, he was just another somewhat successful pitcher who got lost through the cracks (**Cough** LUKE FRENCH, anyone? **Cough**), and while he has been good in relief, I think he gets hit a bit in this one in his limited time on the mound. The Braves are less effective offensively against lefties, but they've made some minor adjustments to the lineup tonight (Ex. Putting in a rejuvenated Reed Johnson, always a solid player, for currently struggling Michael Bourn, who actually isn't that good vs lefties), and I think it'll add up to some runs being put on the board. Most important in this over is the involvement of Ben Sheets, who has made three starts since his grand return to the Major Leagues... and I'm 3-0 with him in those starts, all being unders. For this one, however, I have an over vibe, as I believe he'll have his least successful outing up to this point. All we need is a 5-3ish outcome, which makes this a fine over bet.

Would Also Recommend:
Kip Wells vs Bronson Arroyo under 9
 
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Damn if this LeBlanc vs Sheets over doesn't hit, it'll be a VERY frustrating loss. 30 baserunners, so many people stranded, a crucial blown call (Jose Reyes had a lead-off extra-base hit wrongfully ruled foul, as replays showed) and as usual, the 5-inning variation of the over/under won, keeping at my unofficial 60-plus-percent pace (According to several readers who take the 5-inning variations of my over/unders).

Anyway, final game tonight is:

Carlos Villanueva vs Blake Beaven UNDER 7 - $24 for $20
I've said it so many times this year that everyone on these forums should know: Nobody in the country knows Blake Beavan better than I do. Nobody. He was my No. 1 sleeper coming into the year, and I obviously didn't back away from that stance AT ALL when he was sent down, re-assuring all of you that he'd return strong, and indeed he has with two outstanding starts. That run should continue as he continues his INEVITABLE development into a well-known upper-rotation starting pitcher. Smaller-sized bet, though, as I don't know Carlos Villanueva as well, and I even had a losing record with him in my magical 2011 season (1-2). This is my first time taking him an over/under this year, actually.
 

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