UFC on Fox 4: Rua a strong bet
Davis too heavy a favorite; Machida and Bader evenly matched
By John Candido | FightMetric
In what was already a night of important light heavyweight action, the nationally televised UFC on Fox 4 was given greater significance with the announcement that the two light heavyweight fights at the top of the card will be an audition to determine who gets the next title shot in the division.
The two fights will consist of a main event between former belt holder Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and the struggling Brandon Vera, followed by one-time champion Lyoto Machida who will take on perennial prospect Ryan Bader. And with Phil Davis welcoming undefeated Wagner Prado into the UFC, the night should reveal a ton about the future of one of the most exciting divisions in the organization. We'll tell you which of these big names has the stats to back the odds they're being given and where to find value in the lines for Saturday night.
<center>Lyoto Machida (minus-300) vs. Ryan Bader (plus-250)
</center>Against any other opponent, getting plus-250 on someone with the skill set of Bader would seem like a steal as far as value is concerned. His dominant technical wrestling background mixed with heavy hands is something that shouldn't be priced as too much of an underdog. Against Machida, however, Bader won't be facing any typical opponent. And given some of the weaknesses that Bader has shown in his past performances, Machida is probably the worst matchup that he could get.
To illustrate, the perfect comparison for this fight would be Machida's impressive performance against a similarly skilled wrestler in Rashad Evans. Like Bader, Evans utilizes his wrestling ability to neutralize opponents, landing 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes, similar to Bader's 3.45 takedowns per 15 minutes.
However, against Machida, Evans didn't even attempt a single takedown, most likely due to the fact Machida's unique style is one of the hardest to figure in mixed martial arts. With Machida's takedown defense at a very high 80 percent, he'll likely have success in stuffing the takedown if Bader attempts to use his wrestling or even gets the chance to make an attempt at all.
With Machida possessing the ability to keep this fight standing, Bader may find himself in trouble on the feet. Against Tito Ortiz, who isn't known for his striking accuracy, Bader was hurt in an exchange before losing the fight to a guillotine choke. With Machida landing 2.92 strikes per minute at a 57 percent accuracy rate, and having finished six fights by knockout in the past, it isn't unlikely that he could catch Bader after frustrating his attempts to take this fight to the ground. And with the technical advantage, a decision should surely be in Machida's favor if it does go three rounds. With Machida being favored at minus-300, it seems as if the public is also well aware of Bader's potential weakness against a fighter of Machida's caliber, making this one a stay away despite Bader's high level skills.
Insider's value pick: Stay away
</center><center>Mauricio Rua (minus-340) vs. Brandon Vera (plus-280)
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With the winner potentially getting a second shot at light heavyweight champ Jon Jones, perhaps neither fighter should be too excited, given the one-sided beatings they took at the hands of the champion. But besides the commonality in outcomes against the reigning champ, the similarities end there between Rua and Vera, as this fight should also be a one-sided victory, this time in favor of Rua.
Vera has been less than impressive in his past few fights. In fact, his only victory in the past three years was a unanimous decision against Eliot Marshall, who isn't exactly a top-level contender in the division. Aside from this win, Vera has lost by decision to a 46-year-old Randy Couture and was on the wrong end of two brutal beatings by Jones and Thiago Silva. The purpose of reviewing his past four matches is to highlight that Vera hasn't closed out a fight since 2009.
Rua, on the other hand, has been knocking out big-name opponents the past few years, finishing off Machida, Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman by KO/TKO since joining the UFC. With a 3.69 average strikes landed per minute (SLpM) compared to Vera's 2.93, and having won 17 out of his 20 victories by knockout, it seems that Rua should have a distinct advantage against Vera in the striking game.
With Rua also possessing the ability to close out fights by submission, attempting 1.17 submissions per 15 minutes, he could pose a threat if the fight were to go to the ground. With a 34-year-old Vera seemingly on the decline in his career, Rua should have all the skills necessary to end this one definitively within five rounds. At just minus-340, consider Rua a great value in what should be a very one-sided UFC on FOX 4 main event.
Insider's value pick: Rua
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Jamie Varner proved his value in a fantastic first-round upset against heavy favorite Edson Barboza in their recent matchup at UFC 146. While Varner tends to be an underrated fighter in general, he'll have a very tough matchup in Lauzon, who holds all of the keys to counteract Varner's strengths. Matchups make fights and this is a perfect example of why.
Both fighters are at nearly even odds in this one for good reason, mostly because they're nearly even in their statistical record. To begin, both fighters have identical takedowns per 15 minutes averages of 3.82 at a nearly even percentage of about 50 percent. When it comes to striking, both fighters are very similar, as well, with the slight advantage going to Varner who has a 2.63 SLpM compared to Lauzon's 2.1 SLpM.
The giant difference between the two, however, and what gives Lauzon the advantage in this one, is Lauzon's unrivaled 4.78 submissions per 15 minutes. In fact, a 4.78 rate is so dominant that Lauzon is ranked No. 2 all-time in this category. To make matters worse for Varner, he is taking this fight on short notice, replacing previous opponent Terry Etim, and has a history of getting caught in submissions, with half of his six losses coming in this manner. With Lauzon finishing an incredibly high 17 out of his 21 victories via submission, and being given almost even odds to Varner, consider him a great value at minus-120 with the perfect skill set to finish this fight against the former WEC champ.
Insider value pick: Lauzon
</center>It'd be difficult to say a fighter for whom we have no previous fight statistics would have great value in his debut in the UFC, but Prado should be a unique opportunity to take a big home run swing on a more than decent underdog.
For starters, a minus-600 bet on Davis would indicate that the bettor is confident in Davis winning more than 83 percent of fights given this matchup. I'm not sure that you could be that certain about any fighter's chances at victory in MMA, let alone when they're taking on an opponent with the history of Prado.
It's true that Davis has amassed a very impressive statistical résumé, utilizing his All-American wrestling skills against some of the top-level competition in the light heavyweight division. However, the catch is that Davis is going to have to avoid Prado's very heavy hands for a likely 15 minutes. Since most of Davis' victories have come by way of submission and decision, it will be a significant problem for him given that Prado has never lost in either manner. In fact, Prado hasn't lost at all in his eight-fight career.
The real danger for Davis will be in trying to implement his superior ground game without getting caught by Prado's striking. The most telling statistic is that Prado has won seven out of his eight fights by KO/TKO. With the fight starting out standing, Davis isn't likely to close out the fight within the first round, giving Prado more than enough time for bettors to justify taking that line given Prado's big power and historical ability to end fights with a single flurry.
Insider's value pick: Prado
<center>Manny Gamburyan (minus-150) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (plus-120)
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Coming off of three consecutive losses, Gamburyan will look to maintain some relevance in the UFC against Omigawa, who is also looking to prolong his existence in the organization after a poor 1-3 record since making his debut. The big difference Saturday night, however, will be the disparity in skill sets that should allow Gamburyan to impose his will against Omigawa.
While both fighters have strengths in the ground game, Gamburyan possesses the skills that should trump Omigawa's usual advantage there. On average Gamburyan lands 2.91 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Omigawa, who lands just 1.51, nearly half.
More importantly, though, Omigawa defends only about half of the takedowns attempted against him, while Gamburyan should be able to stay off of his back much more effectively, as he defends a high 75 percent of takedowns. Keeping the fight standing might be in Gamburyan's best interest as well, since he is known for very heavy hands, defeating notable featherweight Mike Brown by KO.
What both fighters are better known for, though, are their submission skills, with Gamburyan winning six fights in this manner and Omigawa averaging 1.79 submission attempts per 15 minutes. However, since neither fighter has ever lost a match by submission, this one could very well come down to a decision. And with Gamburyan likely dominating the action on the ground, getting him at minus-150 is a very good value.
Insider's value pick: Gamburyan
Davis too heavy a favorite; Machida and Bader evenly matched
By John Candido | FightMetric
In what was already a night of important light heavyweight action, the nationally televised UFC on Fox 4 was given greater significance with the announcement that the two light heavyweight fights at the top of the card will be an audition to determine who gets the next title shot in the division.
The two fights will consist of a main event between former belt holder Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and the struggling Brandon Vera, followed by one-time champion Lyoto Machida who will take on perennial prospect Ryan Bader. And with Phil Davis welcoming undefeated Wagner Prado into the UFC, the night should reveal a ton about the future of one of the most exciting divisions in the organization. We'll tell you which of these big names has the stats to back the odds they're being given and where to find value in the lines for Saturday night.
<center>Lyoto Machida (minus-300) vs. Ryan Bader (plus-250)
</center>Against any other opponent, getting plus-250 on someone with the skill set of Bader would seem like a steal as far as value is concerned. His dominant technical wrestling background mixed with heavy hands is something that shouldn't be priced as too much of an underdog. Against Machida, however, Bader won't be facing any typical opponent. And given some of the weaknesses that Bader has shown in his past performances, Machida is probably the worst matchup that he could get.
To illustrate, the perfect comparison for this fight would be Machida's impressive performance against a similarly skilled wrestler in Rashad Evans. Like Bader, Evans utilizes his wrestling ability to neutralize opponents, landing 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes, similar to Bader's 3.45 takedowns per 15 minutes.
However, against Machida, Evans didn't even attempt a single takedown, most likely due to the fact Machida's unique style is one of the hardest to figure in mixed martial arts. With Machida's takedown defense at a very high 80 percent, he'll likely have success in stuffing the takedown if Bader attempts to use his wrestling or even gets the chance to make an attempt at all.
With Machida possessing the ability to keep this fight standing, Bader may find himself in trouble on the feet. Against Tito Ortiz, who isn't known for his striking accuracy, Bader was hurt in an exchange before losing the fight to a guillotine choke. With Machida landing 2.92 strikes per minute at a 57 percent accuracy rate, and having finished six fights by knockout in the past, it isn't unlikely that he could catch Bader after frustrating his attempts to take this fight to the ground. And with the technical advantage, a decision should surely be in Machida's favor if it does go three rounds. With Machida being favored at minus-300, it seems as if the public is also well aware of Bader's potential weakness against a fighter of Machida's caliber, making this one a stay away despite Bader's high level skills.
Insider's value pick: Stay away
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<center>Main event: Five rounds, UFC 149</center><center>Mauricio Rua (minus-340) vs. Brandon Vera (plus-280)
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With the winner potentially getting a second shot at light heavyweight champ Jon Jones, perhaps neither fighter should be too excited, given the one-sided beatings they took at the hands of the champion. But besides the commonality in outcomes against the reigning champ, the similarities end there between Rua and Vera, as this fight should also be a one-sided victory, this time in favor of Rua.
Vera has been less than impressive in his past few fights. In fact, his only victory in the past three years was a unanimous decision against Eliot Marshall, who isn't exactly a top-level contender in the division. Aside from this win, Vera has lost by decision to a 46-year-old Randy Couture and was on the wrong end of two brutal beatings by Jones and Thiago Silva. The purpose of reviewing his past four matches is to highlight that Vera hasn't closed out a fight since 2009.
Rua, on the other hand, has been knocking out big-name opponents the past few years, finishing off Machida, Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman by KO/TKO since joining the UFC. With a 3.69 average strikes landed per minute (SLpM) compared to Vera's 2.93, and having won 17 out of his 20 victories by knockout, it seems that Rua should have a distinct advantage against Vera in the striking game.
With Rua also possessing the ability to close out fights by submission, attempting 1.17 submissions per 15 minutes, he could pose a threat if the fight were to go to the ground. With a 34-year-old Vera seemingly on the decline in his career, Rua should have all the skills necessary to end this one definitively within five rounds. At just minus-340, consider Rua a great value in what should be a very one-sided UFC on FOX 4 main event.
Insider's value pick: Rua
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<center> Joe Lauzon (minus-120) vs. Jamie Varner (plus-100)</center>
Jamie Varner proved his value in a fantastic first-round upset against heavy favorite Edson Barboza in their recent matchup at UFC 146. While Varner tends to be an underrated fighter in general, he'll have a very tough matchup in Lauzon, who holds all of the keys to counteract Varner's strengths. Matchups make fights and this is a perfect example of why.
Both fighters are at nearly even odds in this one for good reason, mostly because they're nearly even in their statistical record. To begin, both fighters have identical takedowns per 15 minutes averages of 3.82 at a nearly even percentage of about 50 percent. When it comes to striking, both fighters are very similar, as well, with the slight advantage going to Varner who has a 2.63 SLpM compared to Lauzon's 2.1 SLpM.
The giant difference between the two, however, and what gives Lauzon the advantage in this one, is Lauzon's unrivaled 4.78 submissions per 15 minutes. In fact, a 4.78 rate is so dominant that Lauzon is ranked No. 2 all-time in this category. To make matters worse for Varner, he is taking this fight on short notice, replacing previous opponent Terry Etim, and has a history of getting caught in submissions, with half of his six losses coming in this manner. With Lauzon finishing an incredibly high 17 out of his 21 victories via submission, and being given almost even odds to Varner, consider him a great value at minus-120 with the perfect skill set to finish this fight against the former WEC champ.
Insider value pick: Lauzon
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<center> Phil Davis (minus-600) vs. Wagner Prado (plus-450) </center>It'd be difficult to say a fighter for whom we have no previous fight statistics would have great value in his debut in the UFC, but Prado should be a unique opportunity to take a big home run swing on a more than decent underdog.
For starters, a minus-600 bet on Davis would indicate that the bettor is confident in Davis winning more than 83 percent of fights given this matchup. I'm not sure that you could be that certain about any fighter's chances at victory in MMA, let alone when they're taking on an opponent with the history of Prado.
It's true that Davis has amassed a very impressive statistical résumé, utilizing his All-American wrestling skills against some of the top-level competition in the light heavyweight division. However, the catch is that Davis is going to have to avoid Prado's very heavy hands for a likely 15 minutes. Since most of Davis' victories have come by way of submission and decision, it will be a significant problem for him given that Prado has never lost in either manner. In fact, Prado hasn't lost at all in his eight-fight career.
The real danger for Davis will be in trying to implement his superior ground game without getting caught by Prado's striking. The most telling statistic is that Prado has won seven out of his eight fights by KO/TKO. With the fight starting out standing, Davis isn't likely to close out the fight within the first round, giving Prado more than enough time for bettors to justify taking that line given Prado's big power and historical ability to end fights with a single flurry.
Insider's value pick: Prado
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<center>Manny Gamburyan (minus-150) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (plus-120)
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Coming off of three consecutive losses, Gamburyan will look to maintain some relevance in the UFC against Omigawa, who is also looking to prolong his existence in the organization after a poor 1-3 record since making his debut. The big difference Saturday night, however, will be the disparity in skill sets that should allow Gamburyan to impose his will against Omigawa.
While both fighters have strengths in the ground game, Gamburyan possesses the skills that should trump Omigawa's usual advantage there. On average Gamburyan lands 2.91 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Omigawa, who lands just 1.51, nearly half.
More importantly, though, Omigawa defends only about half of the takedowns attempted against him, while Gamburyan should be able to stay off of his back much more effectively, as he defends a high 75 percent of takedowns. Keeping the fight standing might be in Gamburyan's best interest as well, since he is known for very heavy hands, defeating notable featherweight Mike Brown by KO.
What both fighters are better known for, though, are their submission skills, with Gamburyan winning six fights in this manner and Omigawa averaging 1.79 submission attempts per 15 minutes. However, since neither fighter has ever lost a match by submission, this one could very well come down to a decision. And with Gamburyan likely dominating the action on the ground, getting him at minus-150 is a very good value.
Insider's value pick: Gamburyan
