Sunday: Trying To Stay Hot YTD: 317-281, + 79.7 units

ofred · Aug 5, 2012

Saturday: 4-2, + 5.9 units. Dodgers barely covered. No apologies here, because as I said in Saturday's post, if there are enough factors in your favor, then not everything has to happen as planned- but you can still get the win. Kershaw pitched as expected, the Cubs hit poorly as expected, but Volstad had his best start in eons which was unexpected. Instead of winning 7-1 as expected, you can squeak by at 3-1 with only some expectations coming true. And Volstad is a gas can waiting to explode. I hope the Cubs keep him around.

Detroit:-1. 2 units
Detroit:RL. One unit. I have laid off Detroit a lot this year because they have been such underachievers. It's surprising since Jim Leyland is a pretty saavy manager and my type of no nonsense guy. Now I think the Tigers MIGHT finally play up to their talent. maybe. One reason is Max Scherzer. He is finally consistent. Since mid -June he has almost pitched better than Verlander. In his last 52.1 IPs, only 18 runs, 63 Ks and only 14 BBs. No really bad blowups either which he used to be famous for.

BoutMyMoney · Aug 5, 2012

really like Scherzer.. good luck o fred and thanks for your commitment

ofred · Aug 5, 2012

Detroit, cont. Scherzer has finally learned to command his great stuff. The Indians have a few good hitters and a load of mediocrity after that- Lopez(swings at everything), Kotchman(no power), Marson, Hanrahan, a lousy bench and their leadoff hitter, Kipnis is in a slump. Santana is having a poor year too. Lefty Seddon comes up from AAA with upper 80s fastball, no real out pitch, and good command. He is tough on lefties, but pretty bad vs. righties. The Tigers have plenty of right handed batters to stack up there, and Fielder(L) hits LHP at .302. I saw Seddon pitch in Seattle. He reminds me of a guy who is decent in AAA, but can't get out mlb hitters consistently. Believe me, he is not an Indian prospect.

ofred · Aug 5, 2012

BoutMyMoney said:
really like Scherzer.. good luck o fred and thanks for your commitment

Thanks. Keep winning…… You're hotter than me.

BoutMyMoney · Aug 5, 2012

lets BOTH stay hot bud ... hows that sound?

ofred · Aug 5, 2012

NY Mets:ML. 2 units.
NY Mets-1/2. First 5 IPs. One unit. Matt Harvey looks like he's developing really fast. It's almost like he is better suited for the majors than the minors. He goes right after hitters early in the count, and is 1-2, 0-2 on many batters. He also has more than just a fastball at mid, high 90s. His fastball over well, and has off speed pitches that he commands pretty well. Though he is a RHP, he is far tougher on lefties. They're hitting .125 off of him so far. In the minors same thing- lefties struggle. Must be the way his ball tails in on them. Anyways, the Padres have mostly lefties in the meat of their lineup. The Padres also could be entering slump territory- too early to tell- but they are capable of it as you know. Jason Marquis started off well with SD back in June, but his effectiveness has tailed off since. His recent best starts were vs. slumping Giant and Dodger teams. Also the Mets career wise have seen him a lot, hitting .351 cumulative. Marquis has to depend greatly on his sinker, but it often fails him, which is why he was cut from the pitching hungry Twins.

ofred · Aug 5, 2012

Washington: RL. 2 units
Washington. -1/2 . First 5 IPs. I like this game partly because I think Strasburg will be more focused after his last poor outing. In that Philly game, he gave up an early HR, then tried to be too perfect. He's learning. But make no mistake, he is a truly dominant pitcher. He has 2 plus, plus pitches and a good curveball too. He commands them well with 33 BBs to 154 Ks. He also has the BP to finish. That BP allowed the Nats to win Saturday coming from behind again. The Marlins have 2-3 hot hitters, but great pitching usually beats great hitting most of the time. I'm betting that's what we'll see Sunday. Nolasco is flirting with Volstad territory. He has given up 18 runs in his last 21.2 IPs, with 5 HRs, and doesn't go deep into games. He's a streaky pitcher and is now in one of his poor streaks. The Marlins BP is not nearly as good as the Nats. Also, the Marlins are decimated by injuries and trades, and are not a good defensive team either. The Nats have seen Nolasco many times- 167 ABs, and this should help. Right now, the Marlins are hanging by a thread on Reyes and Lee's hitting, while the Nats are a complete team with one of the best pitchers in the mlb on the mound.

ofred · Aug 5, 2012

Seattle.ML 1/2 unit.(+176) Seattle's Iwakuma pitched well vs. the Yankees in Seattle and even better vs. Toronto last game, with 13 Ks. Freddy Garcia is holding his own but he's the type of righty the Mariners can hit.
Baltimore. ML. 1/2 unit. (+196)The Rays can't hit at home. As much as I like Price, Gonzalez is also talented. The Orioles were hitting pretty well before this series.

Vituperate · Aug 5, 2012

Great few days Fred...congrats.

Vituperate · Aug 5, 2012

BTW, is the Washington first 5 innings a one or two unit bet?

ofred · Aug 5, 2012

Washington- first 5 is one unit.

ofred · Aug 5, 2012

Washington: TT over 4.5. One unit. Adding Strasburg's bat to an already solid lineup vs. Nolasco and Miami BP, questionable defense. This total jumped up to 4.5 as I placed my bet. Someone else had the same idea.

THEDIRTYHUSTLER · Aug 5, 2012

Scherzer just not giving his team a chance to win this game

Vituperate · Aug 5, 2012

I would like to know what the odds are of a team being down three runs in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and scoring three to tie and a two-run home run to cover the RL. What a great break. We cannot complain the next bad break we get.

Congrats to all.

skyla316 · Aug 5, 2012

WOW. How did you win that Det game..unbelieveable....I need some of that luck today

THEDIRTYHUSTLER · Aug 5, 2012

Vituperate said:
I would like to know what the odds are of a team being down three runs in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and scoring three to tie and a two-run home run to cover the RL. What a great break. We cannot complain the next bad break we get.

Congrats to all.

Scoring all runs with 2 outs!

PonyPlayer · Aug 5, 2012

After blowing bases loaded, 1 out in bottom of 9th!

ofred · Aug 5, 2012

Breaks even out over the long run. I've had my share of bad breaks believe me. For example, just as I bet the Nats TT at 4, the line changed to 4.5- bad break, would have had the push instead of a loss.

Going to break away from my hesitation to play totals, and also want a reason to watch tonight's game- but do like this play- Over 8(-125). One unit on STL/MILW. Got a feeling the Brewers won't be kept at bay tonight. They have seen Lohse plenty over the past few years, and he is a great location pitcher. But if he's a little off, like his last game, he can get hit. Also expect him to regress little back to his career norm. Estrada has HR issues and seems to be able to strike one guy out, then gives ups a double or HR to the next guy kind of pitcher. Both of these lineups have some very good hitters and some hot hitters. Both clubs have a solid BB:K ratio the past week. Good sign for the Brewers who are known to whiff a bit. Also, Brewers BP is the worst, and Estrada is not more than a 5,6 inning pitcher. Cards BP not too hot either. Sunday night baseball, watch the players give that extra oomph.

Sunday: Trying To Stay Hot YTD: 317-281, + 79.7 units

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