Monday: TWO RLs To Start the Week YTD: 322-285 + 81.4 units

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ofred

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Sunday: 5-4, +1.8 units. Honestly, if I ended the year here at 80 units, I'd be as happy as a duck in water. But I can't quit now on a winning streak. Oh…. and I hope you ignored my late total.


Washington:RL. 4 units.
Washington-1/2 First 5 IPs. One unit. This sucker has been already moving tonight and I'm kicking myself for not placing my bet earlier. Dallas Keuchel might have the worst 4 game stats this year in the NL. 19 innings, 22 runs, 16 walks, only 6 Ks, and 6 HRs. Get that? As many HRs as strikeouts. Hitters are teeing off. I'm not going to go through all the factors in the Nats favor, but they have a far superior BP, Edwin Jackson only has one horrible start in a long time(Coors Field), and the Nats have won the first game of every road series this year except for 2 one run losses. The Astros can't seem to score more than 3-4 runs in any one game, and Keuchel is almost guaranteed to give up that many early before the BP is called upon.

Astros did beat Maholm, 3-2, a lefty in Atlanta. But also the Braves played flat that whole series, and the bottom of their order is flat out dreadful, the middle is slumping. I just think the Nats are one of those teams that rarely has a let down game.
 

ofred

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Angels: RL. 4 units.
Angels. ML. One unit. If I win one of these games and lose one, so be it. But I like this one just as much. Jered Weaver has only a few blemishes this year, a game at Texas when Texas was kicking butt early in the season and a game at Yankee Stadium, where the Yankees are extra tough. Don't mistake this week's A's lineup for either one of those. About a week ago they just flat out stopped hitting as a team. This weekend they played a dejected and injury laden Jays team to a 2-2 draw. The A's are streaky and we are catching them now on one of their bad streaks vs. one of the best pitchers in baseball. Also, the Angels have had one great week of hitting. 52 runs, 16 HRs, and 15 2Bs. Their lineup is so much better than the A's when they are slumping that even Jarrod parker can't save them. Parker is going to be very good, and started the year that way. Now he's in a semi-slump, giving up 20 runs in his last 30 innings. Hitters are laying off his change and waiting on the fastball. This happens to every new pitcher and they eventually adjust, but for now, he's hittable. Also, the A's BP is overused, stopper Cook has been awful. The Angels know they are in 3rd place, right behind Oakland. This game means something. Also, the Angels have great record in first games on road trips this year.
 

ofred

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Angels also have played an incredibly tough schedule going back a month or so. That's one reason their record is worse than you'd expect. They also have had super disappointing years from Santana and Haren (although he is looking better lately).

SD. ML. One unit.(-120) Travis Wood's dropoff has an almost direct correlation with his recent drop off in velocity. He has given up 10 HRs in his last 4 starts. Stults, a lefty, is there to pitch about 3 innings or so, then have the bullpen(which is very capable) finish the game. Cubs struggle with lefties, and have bullpen issues too. Sd just beat Dickey and Matt Harvey so they should be able to get to Wood.
SD-1/2. One unit. First 5 IPs.

Milwaukee-1/2. First 5 IPs. One unit. Why is Milwaukee so favored in this game when the Reds are red hot? Something tells me the Reds are about to cool down in a change of venue. Gallardo capable of doing it. Arroyo also due for some regression. The Brewers have been much better hitting at home.

KC: ML. (+205)One unit. Sale is coming back from missing a start due to a dead arm. That could mean a rough start. The Royals got Sale for 10 hits his last outing in KC, while Mendoza pitched well in his last 2 vs. White Sox. Other than Rios, no one on the Sox is that hot. Royals coming off come from behind win with Texas might be up for this. Kc has a pretty good lineup if not much power. BPs are about equal.
 

ofred

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Red Sox/ Texas: Over 10.5. Aaron Cook DOES NOT strike out batters. Has 2 Ks in his last 5 starts. That kind of contact cannot be sustained without eventually getting rocked- which he has. Texas has hit well in Fenway over the past few years and that was against quality pitchers. Cook is about 2 starts from the waiver wire. Furthermore, the Sox BP is looking worked over. They consistently blew leads vs. the Twins giving up many late game runs. And right now Texas is hitting like they should. Darvish could also blow up here. he is like a lot of Japanese pitchers, good stuff, but you have to earn your respect here, and he is not. His lack of command is almost unbelievable at times, whiffing one batter, walking the next, then putting a meatball down the middle of the plate. The Rangers BP is also a little overused lately. The Red Sox can still put 9 decent hitters up there to give Darvish fits.

Texas TT: over 5.5? One unit. We'll see in the morning. Not official play yet.
 
varkeyboy

varkeyboy

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Great job thus far! How many units on Red Sox/Texas total? Hope you smash the books on Monday!
 

ofred

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o fred said:
Sunday: 5-4, +1.8 units. Honestly, if I ended the year here at 80 units, I'd be as happy as a duck in water. But I can't quit now on a winning streak. Oh…. and I hope you ignored my late total.


Washington:RL. 4 units.
Washington-1/2 First 5 IPs. One unit. This sucker has been already moving tonight and I'm kicking myself for not placing my bet earlier. Dallas Keuchel might have the worst 4 game stats this year in the NL. 19 innings, 22 runs, 16 walks, only 6 Ks, and 6 HRs. Get that? As many HRs as strikeouts. Hitters are teeing off. I'm not going to go through all the factors in the Nats favor, but they have a far superior BP, Edwin Jackson only has one horrible start in a long time(Coors Field), and the Nats have won the first game of every road series this year except for 2 one run losses. The Astros can't seem to score more than 3-4 runs in any one game, and Keuchel is almost guaranteed to give up that many early before the BP is called upon.

Astros did beat Maholm, 3-2, a lefty in Atlanta. But also the Braves played flat that whole series, and the bottom of their order is flat out dreadful, the middle is slumping. I just think the Nats are one of those teams that rarely has a let down game.
Click to expand...

Correction: The Nats won the first game of every road trip this year, except 2 one run losses- not the first game of every road series.
 
Vituperate

Vituperate

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Nice avoiding the NYY trap tonight as well Fred. There were a lot of cappers who saw that big +170 number on the Yanks and fell in love.

Verlander was from another planet. CY Young performance tonight.
 
Vituperate

Vituperate

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Miracle tie by HOU in the bottom of the ninth...lets go Nats.
 

Coolie

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Is this vegas taking public love for nats? man on 3rd can't score w no out
 
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