2012 MLB O/U Record: 260-252-28, -$1,752 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Only took one game yesterday, a fairly-sized bet in Haren vs Liriano under 10, which won quite easily without a sweat. That puts me at 6-2-1 over the past couple of days, giving me some crucial momentum heading into today, so let’s see if it carries over into today and starts my week off right, which I think it will based on how I saw the games coming into today…
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres (Best Bet) - $84 for $70
Travis Wood vs Eric Stults
UNDER 7.5
Woahh boy. Let me take you on a trip down memory lane - to early May, to be exact - when I gave you all 500 brilliant words on the highly underrated Eric Stults right before his very first start of 2012 (In a White Sox uniform, actually. All of his other starts have been with San Diego), which actually somehow ended up being his first starting gig in the Majors since 2009. You see, when you’ve been studying this stuff, mostly starting pitchers over and over and over, literally every single day for years like I have, there’s just certain pitchers that stand out from all the rest - that you get a full feel for (Like in my case: Bud Norris, JamesMcDonald, Lucas Harrell, Blake Beavan, JA Happ, etc.) - and Eric Stults really developed for me into one of those such pitchers.
In 2009, Stults was exactly someone who stood out to me, being a very efficient starting pitcher who contributed mostly quality outings to his team at that time, the Dodgers, before inexplicably losing his job, and not resurfacing until last year in a random bullpen role with Colorado. The White Sox finally gave him another opportunity to start earlier this year, even if it was only in a spot-start in game two of a doubleheader with Cleveland, and he passed with flying colors. I watched that whole game, and as I observed Stults cruise his way through most of his assignment, it really kind of took me back to ‘09, when he was doing that on a regular basis, despite always flying under the radar. The White Sox designated Stults for assignment shortly after (If memory serves me correctly, it had something to do with Chris Sale re-entering the rotation or someone returning from injury), and the Padres scooped him up immediately afterwards, tabbing him for their rotation. Stults ended up making just four starts with San Diego, three of which saw him allow three runs or less (Including an impressive victory over the potent Angels’ offense in a high-profile Saturday night matchup against Dan Haren. His one off start was an acceptable one at ultra-windy Wrigley Field), but a strained lat muscle eventually plagued him, forcing him to the disable list, where he ended up staying longer than initially figured. Well, after a few recent relief appearances upon his return (The Padres have been auditioning several different starters all year, remember), San Diego decided to cut ties with obscure veteran Kip Wells (Who actually wasn’t even doing that bad, surprisingly. See ya, Kip), thus enabling an opening for Stultsy to get another crack at starting. In his first start in months, I think we can see the Eric Stults that I had projected those few months ago, especially since he’s looked just as crisp in the bullpen, most notably when hereplaced Ross Ohlendorf early in a game in Cincinnati, where he held the Reds to one earned run and three hits over three nice innings with three punch-outs. In this specific contest, the southpaw Stults draws a more favorable matchup, being pitted against a team that doesn’t hit lefties well, and within the cozy confines of Petco Park where he has thrived. I’m afraid of the variable of emerging powerhouse Anthony Rizzo getting some good licks against his old teamin front of his old fans (He was a very popular trade acquisition in the Adrian Gonzalez deal), but hopefully it’s only of minimal impact in game one of this series. Besides, this is Eric Stults we’re talking about here, a starting pitcher I have absolutely seized and conquered to the point where you might think I was related to him.
All that for Stults; can’t provide the same ridiculously length analysis on Travis Wood. There is one major sentiment to consider, though, when evaluating Wood’s potential outcome for this game: The man has been impressive for most of the season, even after people wrote himoff following his mostly unimpressive statistics in the Reds organization. He was so good, in fact, that he carried a dazzling 3.05 ERA into early July, which is awfully tough to do when roughly half your starts occur at Wrigley. Unfortunately for the Cubs’ left-hander, there was incredibly harsh three-game stretch that saw Wood surrender at least six earned runs in each start, thus why his ERA currently sits at an unsightly 4.90. However, it is possible he’s put it behind him, as evident in his most recent start following the aforementioned trifecta of off outings, when he limited the division-rival Pirates to two runs and three hits over five fine innings, while also registering six strikeouts.With that start under his belt, I would like to believe that mentally, Wood has reset himself and is trying to get back on par with what he was contributing for the majority of the season. Like Stults, he will seemingly have a bit of an advantage, given the opposing hitters’ documented struggles against left-handers, as the Padres, like the Cubs, hit .230 in that split-stat department. With the line at 7.5, we have some room for one of these pitchers to not have their best stuff on display, opening the door for a very possible 5-2/4-3 victory. I see the line even dropped to 7, which is pretty interesting considering this is a game featuring two relatively unknown pitchers. Wise move by Vegas to protect themselves, as even at 7, there’s a lot of potential for this Monday night affair.
Other 8/6 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Wade Miley vs Erik Bedard UNDER 8 - $39 for $35
Interesting to witness the line movement on this one as well, otherwise I would have put more on the game at 8 - I don’t even recommend this matchup at 7.5, with a very possible 5-3 score looming. It’s a solid bet at 8, though, as the Pirates outside of Andrew McCutchen are not good against left-handed pitching (Although they have improved mightily since the first two months of the season in that department, if you’ve noticed), while Erik Bedard is coming off one of the worst starts of his career - certainly the worst one during his tenure as a Pirate - and with his talent, he should be able to get back on track.
Jason Vargas vs Chris Tillman OVER 8.5 - $37 for $35
This bet would probably be significantly bigger, if the line was 8 like it should be. After all, I mean, let’s be real, Vegas. WHY exactly make this game 8.5, given the solid pitching matchup? On one side you have Jason Vargas, the reigning American League Pitcher of the Month, who was absolutely outstanding in July with an ERA well below 2 and is currently throwing the best ball of his underrated career. On the other side, you have Chris Tillman, who, aside from one start, has been mostly brilliant since being recalled, which is why his ERA currently sits in the 2’s. When he has confidence, he can be awfully tough to hit. However, I see him getting hit here, and I see Vargas having an unusually slightly off start. My worst-case scenario for this game was exactly 6-2, and if you can grab this over at 8, I’d recommend a big bet. But at 8.5, I’ll settle and hope it exceeds my main 6-2 vision.
Yu Darvish vs Aaron Cook OVER 10 - $18 for $15
The regression from Aaron Cook that I predicted not too long ago has come out in a big way, as Cook is starting to get rocked, which is what should have been happening as soon as he entered the Red Sox rotation. After all, through his first few starts, Cook had a measly three strikeouts through his first 30-plus innings, which is just atrocious. In other words, if he’s going to keep getting hit, it would be impossible for him to continue to maintain that low batting average of balls put in play, which is the only reason he was doing solid in his first month-and-change on the Red Sox pitching staff. At this point in time, the cat is out of the bag (No pun intended) and he’s been getting hit, which should continue at hitter-friendly lineup against the runs-friendly Rangers lineup. The wild card here is Yu Darvish, who could easily contribute an excellent start and spoil this over, which is why it’s a bet for the minimum for me.
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibeone very single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Only took one game yesterday, a fairly-sized bet in Haren vs Liriano under 10, which won quite easily without a sweat. That puts me at 6-2-1 over the past couple of days, giving me some crucial momentum heading into today, so let’s see if it carries over into today and starts my week off right, which I think it will based on how I saw the games coming into today…
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres (Best Bet) - $84 for $70
Travis Wood vs Eric Stults
UNDER 7.5
Woahh boy. Let me take you on a trip down memory lane - to early May, to be exact - when I gave you all 500 brilliant words on the highly underrated Eric Stults right before his very first start of 2012 (In a White Sox uniform, actually. All of his other starts have been with San Diego), which actually somehow ended up being his first starting gig in the Majors since 2009. You see, when you’ve been studying this stuff, mostly starting pitchers over and over and over, literally every single day for years like I have, there’s just certain pitchers that stand out from all the rest - that you get a full feel for (Like in my case: Bud Norris, JamesMcDonald, Lucas Harrell, Blake Beavan, JA Happ, etc.) - and Eric Stults really developed for me into one of those such pitchers.
In 2009, Stults was exactly someone who stood out to me, being a very efficient starting pitcher who contributed mostly quality outings to his team at that time, the Dodgers, before inexplicably losing his job, and not resurfacing until last year in a random bullpen role with Colorado. The White Sox finally gave him another opportunity to start earlier this year, even if it was only in a spot-start in game two of a doubleheader with Cleveland, and he passed with flying colors. I watched that whole game, and as I observed Stults cruise his way through most of his assignment, it really kind of took me back to ‘09, when he was doing that on a regular basis, despite always flying under the radar. The White Sox designated Stults for assignment shortly after (If memory serves me correctly, it had something to do with Chris Sale re-entering the rotation or someone returning from injury), and the Padres scooped him up immediately afterwards, tabbing him for their rotation. Stults ended up making just four starts with San Diego, three of which saw him allow three runs or less (Including an impressive victory over the potent Angels’ offense in a high-profile Saturday night matchup against Dan Haren. His one off start was an acceptable one at ultra-windy Wrigley Field), but a strained lat muscle eventually plagued him, forcing him to the disable list, where he ended up staying longer than initially figured. Well, after a few recent relief appearances upon his return (The Padres have been auditioning several different starters all year, remember), San Diego decided to cut ties with obscure veteran Kip Wells (Who actually wasn’t even doing that bad, surprisingly. See ya, Kip), thus enabling an opening for Stultsy to get another crack at starting. In his first start in months, I think we can see the Eric Stults that I had projected those few months ago, especially since he’s looked just as crisp in the bullpen, most notably when hereplaced Ross Ohlendorf early in a game in Cincinnati, where he held the Reds to one earned run and three hits over three nice innings with three punch-outs. In this specific contest, the southpaw Stults draws a more favorable matchup, being pitted against a team that doesn’t hit lefties well, and within the cozy confines of Petco Park where he has thrived. I’m afraid of the variable of emerging powerhouse Anthony Rizzo getting some good licks against his old teamin front of his old fans (He was a very popular trade acquisition in the Adrian Gonzalez deal), but hopefully it’s only of minimal impact in game one of this series. Besides, this is Eric Stults we’re talking about here, a starting pitcher I have absolutely seized and conquered to the point where you might think I was related to him.
All that for Stults; can’t provide the same ridiculously length analysis on Travis Wood. There is one major sentiment to consider, though, when evaluating Wood’s potential outcome for this game: The man has been impressive for most of the season, even after people wrote himoff following his mostly unimpressive statistics in the Reds organization. He was so good, in fact, that he carried a dazzling 3.05 ERA into early July, which is awfully tough to do when roughly half your starts occur at Wrigley. Unfortunately for the Cubs’ left-hander, there was incredibly harsh three-game stretch that saw Wood surrender at least six earned runs in each start, thus why his ERA currently sits at an unsightly 4.90. However, it is possible he’s put it behind him, as evident in his most recent start following the aforementioned trifecta of off outings, when he limited the division-rival Pirates to two runs and three hits over five fine innings, while also registering six strikeouts.With that start under his belt, I would like to believe that mentally, Wood has reset himself and is trying to get back on par with what he was contributing for the majority of the season. Like Stults, he will seemingly have a bit of an advantage, given the opposing hitters’ documented struggles against left-handers, as the Padres, like the Cubs, hit .230 in that split-stat department. With the line at 7.5, we have some room for one of these pitchers to not have their best stuff on display, opening the door for a very possible 5-2/4-3 victory. I see the line even dropped to 7, which is pretty interesting considering this is a game featuring two relatively unknown pitchers. Wise move by Vegas to protect themselves, as even at 7, there’s a lot of potential for this Monday night affair.
Other 8/6 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Wade Miley vs Erik Bedard UNDER 8 - $39 for $35
Interesting to witness the line movement on this one as well, otherwise I would have put more on the game at 8 - I don’t even recommend this matchup at 7.5, with a very possible 5-3 score looming. It’s a solid bet at 8, though, as the Pirates outside of Andrew McCutchen are not good against left-handed pitching (Although they have improved mightily since the first two months of the season in that department, if you’ve noticed), while Erik Bedard is coming off one of the worst starts of his career - certainly the worst one during his tenure as a Pirate - and with his talent, he should be able to get back on track.
Jason Vargas vs Chris Tillman OVER 8.5 - $37 for $35
This bet would probably be significantly bigger, if the line was 8 like it should be. After all, I mean, let’s be real, Vegas. WHY exactly make this game 8.5, given the solid pitching matchup? On one side you have Jason Vargas, the reigning American League Pitcher of the Month, who was absolutely outstanding in July with an ERA well below 2 and is currently throwing the best ball of his underrated career. On the other side, you have Chris Tillman, who, aside from one start, has been mostly brilliant since being recalled, which is why his ERA currently sits in the 2’s. When he has confidence, he can be awfully tough to hit. However, I see him getting hit here, and I see Vargas having an unusually slightly off start. My worst-case scenario for this game was exactly 6-2, and if you can grab this over at 8, I’d recommend a big bet. But at 8.5, I’ll settle and hope it exceeds my main 6-2 vision.
Yu Darvish vs Aaron Cook OVER 10 - $18 for $15
The regression from Aaron Cook that I predicted not too long ago has come out in a big way, as Cook is starting to get rocked, which is what should have been happening as soon as he entered the Red Sox rotation. After all, through his first few starts, Cook had a measly three strikeouts through his first 30-plus innings, which is just atrocious. In other words, if he’s going to keep getting hit, it would be impossible for him to continue to maintain that low batting average of balls put in play, which is the only reason he was doing solid in his first month-and-change on the Red Sox pitching staff. At this point in time, the cat is out of the bag (No pun intended) and he’s been getting hit, which should continue at hitter-friendly lineup against the runs-friendly Rangers lineup. The wild card here is Yu Darvish, who could easily contribute an excellent start and spoil this over, which is why it’s a bet for the minimum for me.
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibeone very single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
