The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 7, 2012 - YTD: 264-254-28

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 264-254-28, -$1,633 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Keeping the hot run up with a very nice 4-2 performance yesterday, including securing both of my biggest best bets from the 10 o’clock slate. As I’ve been preaching before his very first start, there is not one person in this country that knows Eric Stults better than I do, hence why I’ve been clamoring for him since 2009 to be re-entered into someone’s starting rotation, and with his excellent gem last night, it appears he’ll be getting another extended look on San Diego’s pitching staff (And hopefully not getting hurt this time). Anyway, my Monday night domination pushed my run to 10-4-1 over the past few days so hopefully I can keep it up on this Tuesday evening…


MinnesotaTwins @ Cleveland Indians - $44 for $40
Samuel Deduno vs Corey Kluber
OVER 9.5

I would bet that 90-percent of peoplewho saw this specific pitching matchup initially thought, “Who the fuck are these two clowns?” Well, by now, if you’re a real baseball gambler and/or true baseball fan, you SHOULD know Samuel Deduno, especially after his unexpected terrific outing in Boston last Thursday (In which I had the under), when he held the intimidating Red Sox to two hits and no runs over six innings. However, he only struck out one and also walked four, which is pretty much the book on Deduno right there - he serves up a lot of free passes. In fact, he has more walks (20) than strikeouts (19) thus far in his early career, and it’s alarming he’s walked four hitters or more in three of his five starts, with the other two assignments seeing him walk three. That, and oh, his WHIP sits at an uncomfortable 1.45, meaning Deduno’s shiny 3-0 record and 2.48 ERA are about to take a hit much sooner than later, potentially beginning tonight. Cleveland’soffense always has the ability to put a crooked number on the scoreboard, especially home at Progressive Field, and after the shellacking they received last night from the opposing Twins, they’ll easily be more motivated to atonefor that as soon as possible. Going up against a guy who can be wild and pitchto contact, the opportunity is there.

The other guy set to take the hill, Corey Kluber, is understandably more of a no-name, especially after his first career start five days ago in which he allowed six runs and nine hits over 4.1 innings against the Royals on the road. In his defense, those six runs came inthe first inning, so it’s possible that the nerves of making his first career Major League start got to him right away, before settling down. However, even if that’s the case, from what I’ve read of his minor league performance, I don’t envision him having much success, or any at all for that matter, and considering the Twins’ recent hitting surge, Kluber could be in for another unsuccessful outing. I thought the line for this game would be 10, but at 9.5, it’s worth a fine bet, as 7-3/6-4 will do it.


Other8/7 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Patrick Corbin vs Jeff Karstens UNDER 8 - $30 for $25 (Corbin caught my eye last year and had the best start of his career in his last time out. Meanwhile, Jeff Karstens is actually one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, and given his 0.43 home ERA, it’s likely his quality pitching continues)


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 
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Sorry for the lateness, by the way. Just realized I posted it at first pitch, but since I took a long nap, I had limited time to work with.

Also, it's interesting that Vegas set the line for Happ vs Shields at 7. Think about it: As much as I've always loved JA Happ since he was traded to Houston (He's been one of my top five favorite pitchers since 2010, as regular readers know), the general consensus is that he's dropped off, especially in Toronto's eyes, where he was forced into a curious bullpen role), while Shields hasn't been his usual dominant self this season. I'd be on the under if the line wasn't so low, which is just unfortunate.
 
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Okay, 1-1 day with a victorious best bet. Would have liked to have won that other game, since both guys went six innings and gave me quality starts (It was 3-2 in the 7th), and when you have an under of 8 or higher and BOTH starters give you quality starts, you're going to win that under 75-80-percent of the time. Too bad two quality bullpens blew it (Specifically Takashi Saito and Jason Grilli, two guys who had ERAs below 3; can't predict that garbage).

And, as usual, the game(s) I didn't take that I recommended (Happ vs Shields under) win with ease.
 

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