The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 8, 2012 - YTD: 265-255-28

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 265-255-28, -$1,623 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

1-1 day yesterday with a successful best bet Deduno vs Kluber over, although I really wanted to win that other game as well, Corbin vs Karstens under, since I was, as usual, 100-percent right on the starting pitching matchup, considering both guys went six innings, gave me quality starts, and got the game to be 3-2 in the 7th, which, 75-percent of the time, would be enough for an under of 8 or higher, but the bullpens were lit up, as is the theme in 2012. Eh, nothing you can do. Let’s just move on to Wednesday, as I begin my card with a solid big bet early on…


Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians (Probable Best Bet) - $92 for $80
Brian Duensing vs Justin Masterson
UNDER 9

It appears the first game of the day, which happens to have a somewhat rare noon start time, is going to be my best bet, and with the line as high as it is, it could be a good one, especially featuring one of my best pitchers, record-wise, in 2012. Set to go for the home Indians is their ace, Justin Masterson, as he tries to rescue his club from a putrid 11-game losing streak, and that’s a large reason why I’m so invested in this specific under: No. 1, I have been VERY good with Masterson over/unders this year, and since this is the first time I’ve had a strong vibe on a Masterson game in a few weeks, it’s one I had to lock in on. No. 2, while I said the Cleveland right-hander was overrated coming into the season and would have a bit of a decline year, that doesn’t mean I think he’s bad - a guy like Masterson potentially thrives best in these starts. Even though his numbers (7-10, 4.78 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) have fallen off from his remarkable 2011, that doesn’t mean I think he’s a bad pitcher because he’s certainly not, as evident in the fact that he still gets a decent number of strikeouts. In addition, I like Masterson in a bounce-back spot right here, as he seems to follow up awful outings with fine ones. This is a different scenario from most, however, as he’s coming off two really bad starts, but I think it adds up to him tossing one of his more normal efforts, despite his struggles against the Twins this year in two starts. The main important factor when considering his potential fate is that we’re catching him in his best possible setting - Masterson has, by far, been at his best at home (3.33 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) compared to on the road (6.68 ERA, 1.69 WHIP), while also dealing far, far better during the day (3.89 ERA,1.30 WHIP) than at night (5.18 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Bounce back is what he shall do, as he continues to match my perfect description that I gave him before the season, being a Rick Helling-type ace.

Opposing him will be the interesting Brian Duensing, who has shifted between starter and reliever this year once again, but at this point in time at least, it looks like Duensing will be getting another extended look to be on the starting pitching staff. And I think it’s a great move, actually. For one, why was Duensing even removed from the starting rotation? While his ERA in 2011 eventually settled in just below the mid-5’s, the fact is that the Twins’ left-hander was actually pretty good for most of last season, carrying a low-4’s ERA into late July. Alot of his starts were quality ones, while a couple of really atrocious efforts sprinkled in-between hampered his overall numbers. Since returning to the rotation this year, though, Duensing has put together a couple of really nice starts, including one against these same Indians less than two weeks ago, when he kept their bats in check to five hits and one run over six impressive innings. Usually I’m not a fan of a starting pitcher, especially one with an insignificant track record like Brian Duensing, facing a lineup a second time in such a short span, but considering the Indians are the worst team in the American League against left-handed pitching, hitting .225, I think that’ll contribute to Duensing keeping up with Masterson in producing this under. Plus, Duensing has confidence, coming off a strong start in Boston in his last assignment, which is tough to do for any starter. Brian Duensing wants to remain a starter, and as long as he continues to pitch just as he has been, we’ll finish under 9 with room to spare.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 
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Also forgot to mention Duensing's best numbers against an opponent throughout his career (Minimum 50 IP) have come against Cleveland (2.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and he's been good in his few starts at Progressive Field. Considering he's in a good place mentally, given his standing being back in the rotation, that has to bode well for his outlook this afternoon.

Game starts in 15 minutes if you want to tail.
 
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Anddd a very nice way to start the day with a big best bet victory, pushing my current run to 12-5-1 over the past several days. Varkeyboy, you weren't exactly off at all, as it was one run away from a push... But it's not so wise to go up against one of my best pitchers (Masterson) in 2012. :)

May have another game later but it wouldn't be till the 7 o'clock slate begins. Best of luck to everyone throughout the rest of this fine Wednesday.
 
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Congrats CAT! Glad you won it.

Thanks varkey. Just gotta keep up this run and get over this ten-or-so-games-over.500 hump that I've been stuck in all year. It's embarrassing and as you can tell, I still have not taken a day off with my extremely hard work. Let's hope it continues.
 
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Alright, back with some 7 o'clock action, gotta keep it going...

Kennedy vs Correia UNDER 8 - $30 for $25
Ian Kennedy has been in a groove lately, admitting he's been feeling more comfortable again since the D-backs have went on their run to put them back in contention, while Kevin Correia, who was very vocal about being demoted to the bullpen a couple of weeks ago, should see a boost in energy and mindset with this spot start, doing what he clearly lives most. Hopefully these two quality bullpens don't blow the under again like they single-handedly did last night.


Would also RECOMMEND Hudson vs Kendrick over if you can get it at 8, and Eovaldi vs Young over 8 as well. Will have another game or two later.
 

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Any late plays or leans? I just got home from work and lost 3 units on the day.
 
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Boy was I off on Kennedy vs Correia... it's extremely rare when I'm that blatantly wrong but it happens. Andddd, of course, the two games I recommended hit quite easily... as usual. It's very frustrating how that continues to happen.

Mokoman, there's only one 10 o'clock game tonight and I'm going to bite on it...

Jeff Francis vs Chad Billingsley OVER 7 - $23 for $20
I've been really good with Francis since he re-joined Colorado this year, but really not good with Chad Billingsley, who is sometimes erratic. I sense 6-3, though, and with the line as low as 7, there's potential
 
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Good start in that late night over, hope it hits to atone for the 7 o'clock loss, leaving my best bet victory untouched.
 

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