The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 9, 2012 - YTD: 267-256-28

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 267-256-28, -$1,553 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Okay, 2-1 yesterday, including my fifth straight best bet victory, pushing my current run to a very satisfying 13-6-1 mark. Considering it's getting late, and that this is my only game tonight, let's just move on to it and hope my current domination continues...


Washington Nationals @ Houston Astros - $60 for $50
Jordan Zimmermann vs Lucas Harrell
UNDER 7.5

If you are going to tail me tonight, have comfort in knowing you'll be tailing me with one of my best possible pitchers, that being the vastly underrated Lucas Harrell. I know it seems like I do this every five days, but it's hard ignore my obsession with the Astros' right-hander. As regular readers know, Harrell was actually one of my top three sleepers coming into the season (Along with James McDonald and Blake Beavan... pretty good bold predictions on my part), and he has completely come through for me in amassing a 9-7 record with a 3.98 ERA and 1.35 WHIP (Not to mention he's one of my top five favorite pitchers in all of baseball). He's been much, much better at home in Minute Maid Park, going 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.21 WHIP so we're catching him in his best setting (He's also been significantly better in night games as opposed to during the day), while he's been in a real groove that has seen him legitimate establish himself.

Meanwhile, ther eis Jordan Zimmermann set to oppose him on this Thursday evening, along with his 8-6 record, golden 2.45 ERA, and very nifty 1.05 WHIP. I mean, with those numbers, it's easy to see Zimmermann has been highly effective this year, and if you've actually been following him throughout the season, you would know he has been remarkably consistent, really going through no bad stretches at any point this year. With those numbers, and his effectiveness, it's hard to see the Astros' dead-bat lineup (Which now will be without Jordan Schafer) get to him for any sort of significant offense. Thus, Zimmermann should keep his roll going as he matches up with the worst team in baseball, seeking out a four-game sweep for the first-place Nationals. The under looks solid.
 
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And my apologies for not posting this earlier before first pitch, just woke up from a long nap that saw me lose track of time so I kind of had to rush my write-up for this game as well. If you were planning on tailing, I hope you saw this in time in effort of getting it in.
 

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Hey Cat, question for you? Do you play only O/U's in Football too or sides as well?
 
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Hey Cat, question for you? Do you play only O/U's in Football too or sides as well?

Good question, skyla. I actually do EVERYTHING when it comes to football (Sides, Totals, Prop Bets, and my biggest bets usually are in the form of 13-point TEASERS!), but I specifically like to key in on my dear over/unders. Unfortunately, I was not keeping track of record last season (I was so focused on baseball in 2011, since that was the first year I bet literally every day, and it was such a magical season that I felt keeping track of football would disrupt me from my success, although I did have some action on football betting every week) but I assure everyone that I was around 55-percent in over/unders, while with everything else, I was only slightly above 50-percent. The thing I love most about football is that when you're able to buy points, even if it's just ONE point, that could make up for an ENTIRE score (Ex. Buying a game from 43 to 44 protects you in a 24-20 game, which I love), which is huge in the grand scheme of things. It's an extremely rare instance that gives the bettor an advantage over Vegas, because buying points is actually a REASONABLE price to pay when it makes a significant different in turning potential losses into pushes or wins. If only I could buy runs for baseball... (Since I do lead the entire country in half-run/one-run losses, without question ;) )

I'm not too sure if I'll be having my own thread for football. I'm leaning on it, since it's one-time a week, unlike baseball where I've contributed these lengthy articles, usually over 1,000 words, literally Every. Single. Day, which has taken its toll on me. With football, though, there's really no pressure, so I think I would have fun with it, as opposed to baseball, where my success last year maybe gave me unrealistic expectations of myself (As I mentioned from day one, I expected to surpass my 57.5-percent winning percentage from last year), which put an incredible amount of pressure on myself, and making it not fun at all when I would go through rough stretches, especially the ones that featured mostly fluke bad breaks. But, like I said, with football, I'm not claiming I'm one of the great ones because I'm not, nor am I one of the great ones in any other sport. In baseball over/unders, despite my disappointing record this year, I still know I'm absolutely one of the best ones out there due to my vast starting pitcher knowledge, and it's a shame that bullpens have ruined my track record and confidence, at least for most of the season. Football, though... there's no pressure, which means I can have more fun and take losses in stride, allowing me to keep my sense of comfort throughout the season while potentially being very successful.

Plus, while I unfortunately hear about how these baseball forums "have gone down the tubes in recent years," I assume the football forums here at The RX are very live and active, which should make for a fun community to converse with every week. I know you'll be there, Skyla, so I'm leaning on writing football as well.

And glad to see you're back, even if just part-time, with baseball :)
 
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And hey, look, Sean Burnett is now pitching in the eighth inning of my best bet. I point this out because every time I see him pitch these days, I am harsly reminded of the incredibly fluky bad break I received while he was on the hill in a Nationals/Blue Jays game back in mid-June, in which I had $90 on an under 8.5... and it was 6-1 Nationals in the bottom of the ninth inning with two outs, when Burnett, who had a 0.95 ERA at the time, served up a meaningless, random, absolute garbage two-run, two-out homer to .210-hitting Yan Gomes to deep center field. Yup, bad times.
 
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Thank you CHUCKIE FICK for getting out of that bases-loaded, zero-out jam in the ninth inning with minimal damage (One run). It sucks I have to sweat out yet another under where I was absolutely 100-percent right on the starting pitching matchup, but that's 2012 in a nutshell.
 
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And there it is, another win, making it SIX STRAIGHT best bet victories during this current 14-6-1 run over the past week.

I know the season has been a huge disappointment for me, and it's actually affected me personally considering the special year I had in 2011, but I realize that I can still get something out of it, with just under two months to go, so if I can keep rolling along with this type of confidence, which is probably the most important factor for any type of potential success I have, then I can contribute some real extensive great runs, especially while bullpens have been as stable as they have been over the past few weeks. Pay attention.
 

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