2012 MLB O/U Record: 268-256-28, -$1,503 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
It’s sort of been feeling like 2011 for me lately, as evident with my current 14-6-1 run that has seen me profit a few hundred dollars, while also winning SIX straight best bet victories over the past six days (For newer readers, a “best bet” qualifies as my biggest bet on any day). As a result, my confidence has been soaring again, which is the most important element of being a successful bettor. You can’t win consistently if you’re constantly second-guessing yourself (Which is what I was often doing when I would receive a tough-luck fluke break throughout most of the season), but this extensive run has me in a real groove right now, and I’m confident it will continue on this Friday evening…
San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $110 for $100
Edinson Volquez vs James McDonald
UNDER 8
Wow, my eyes lit up as soon as I saw this pitching matchup, and then when I saw this morning that the line had surprisingly gone up from 7.5 to 8, I knew right away this would be tonight’s best bet, not to mention one of my biggest over/under bets over the past couple of weeks. I mean, not only is it two pitchers who have been simply excellent for most of 2012 - it’s two pitchers that I know very well. First off, obviously, is James McDonald, who was one ofmy top three sleepers coming into this season (Could I have been anymore 100-percent right?), and as I’ve written about countless times in the past, he’s been one of my top three favorite pitchers in all of baseball since 2009 (When he was in Los Angeles, where he never got a true opportunity for some reason as a Dodger). Well, flash forward a few years later and suddenly, McDonald was actually being mentioned in the National League Cy Young discussion (!) - that is, until a few starts ago, in which J-Mac has endured a rough stretch that has seen him surrender three runs or more in five consecutive starts. As a result, his ERA has jumped from 2.37 to 3.42, but it’s mostly been due to one issue - walks. This was actually always an issue with the Pirates’ right-hander, as Clint Hurdle only let him go seven innings just once last year, due to McDonald’s once-constant nibbling around the strike zone, leading to unnecessary high pitch counts. However, just as I detailed during McDonald’s emergence early on this year, he finally realized that he doesn’t need to nibble with his tremendous stuff in his arsenal, and as everyone saw, McDonald was putting together a storybook-like season afterf inally harnessing his control. Well, over his past five starts, McDonald’s wildness has come out again, but the encouraging thing is that J-Mac only walked one in his last start (While striking out seven), leading to his best start during this current five-game stretch, in which he allowed only three earned runs in six innings on the road in hitter’s haven Great American Ballpark. As long as he builds off that and returns to his roots, we’ll see the James McDonald that we were witnessing for most of 2012 - the one that should’ve been a LOCK for the National League all-star team.
Taking the mound opposite McDonald is another guy I went on record of saying would be a huge sleeper this year (Although he was not in my top three like McDonald was), that being the quietly good Edinson Volquez, who I said many times before the season and early on would have a “renaissance year.” Possessing a 3.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 125 Ks in 135 inning, it’s safe to say that I’ve been 100-percent right, although that’s only up until this point. Volquez has yielded four runs or more in each of his past two starts, but I’m confident he’s about to turn it around again. No. 1, in his last start against the Mets, in which he lasted a career-low 1.2 innings, Volquez had developed a blister, which got to him mentally and physically. In fact, he even said, “When you have that in your mind, you’ve lost confidence in your pitches. You don’t want to throw your breaking ball because it will hurt you… but you don’t trust your fastball, either, because you feel pain. It’s just tough.” See, that’s very crucial because if you don’t have confidence, you’renot going to be successful, as I’ve stressed a thousand times, mentality is EVERYTHING in being a pitcher, which is what fascinates me most and has drawn me so close to my dear over/unders over the years. If you’re mindset isn’t right, you’re very vulnerable to Major League hitters, and that’s exactly what happened to Volquez in that previous outing. However, now that he’s healed, along with the fact that he’ll be extra motivated to atone for his past two off starts, that should mean it is more likely we will see the normal Edinson Volquez, and if that’s the case, matched up against the normal James McDonald, then we are more likely to see a dandy of a pitcher’s duel. Even if that’s not the case, we can still escape with a push in the event of a possible 5-3 outcome, which makes the under so desirable being at 8.
Other 8/10 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Tyler Chatwood vs Tim Lincecum UNDER 7 - Price TBD/Analysis To Be Added
Clay Buchholz vs Chris Seddon OVER 8.5 - $25 for $20
Paul Maholm vs Matt Harvey UNDER 8 - $22for $18
Freddy Garcia vs Ricky Romero OVER 9.5 - $17 for $15
Would Also Recommend:
Clayton Kershaw vs Mark Buehrle OVER 7
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
It’s sort of been feeling like 2011 for me lately, as evident with my current 14-6-1 run that has seen me profit a few hundred dollars, while also winning SIX straight best bet victories over the past six days (For newer readers, a “best bet” qualifies as my biggest bet on any day). As a result, my confidence has been soaring again, which is the most important element of being a successful bettor. You can’t win consistently if you’re constantly second-guessing yourself (Which is what I was often doing when I would receive a tough-luck fluke break throughout most of the season), but this extensive run has me in a real groove right now, and I’m confident it will continue on this Friday evening…
San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $110 for $100
Edinson Volquez vs James McDonald
UNDER 8
Wow, my eyes lit up as soon as I saw this pitching matchup, and then when I saw this morning that the line had surprisingly gone up from 7.5 to 8, I knew right away this would be tonight’s best bet, not to mention one of my biggest over/under bets over the past couple of weeks. I mean, not only is it two pitchers who have been simply excellent for most of 2012 - it’s two pitchers that I know very well. First off, obviously, is James McDonald, who was one ofmy top three sleepers coming into this season (Could I have been anymore 100-percent right?), and as I’ve written about countless times in the past, he’s been one of my top three favorite pitchers in all of baseball since 2009 (When he was in Los Angeles, where he never got a true opportunity for some reason as a Dodger). Well, flash forward a few years later and suddenly, McDonald was actually being mentioned in the National League Cy Young discussion (!) - that is, until a few starts ago, in which J-Mac has endured a rough stretch that has seen him surrender three runs or more in five consecutive starts. As a result, his ERA has jumped from 2.37 to 3.42, but it’s mostly been due to one issue - walks. This was actually always an issue with the Pirates’ right-hander, as Clint Hurdle only let him go seven innings just once last year, due to McDonald’s once-constant nibbling around the strike zone, leading to unnecessary high pitch counts. However, just as I detailed during McDonald’s emergence early on this year, he finally realized that he doesn’t need to nibble with his tremendous stuff in his arsenal, and as everyone saw, McDonald was putting together a storybook-like season afterf inally harnessing his control. Well, over his past five starts, McDonald’s wildness has come out again, but the encouraging thing is that J-Mac only walked one in his last start (While striking out seven), leading to his best start during this current five-game stretch, in which he allowed only three earned runs in six innings on the road in hitter’s haven Great American Ballpark. As long as he builds off that and returns to his roots, we’ll see the James McDonald that we were witnessing for most of 2012 - the one that should’ve been a LOCK for the National League all-star team.
Taking the mound opposite McDonald is another guy I went on record of saying would be a huge sleeper this year (Although he was not in my top three like McDonald was), that being the quietly good Edinson Volquez, who I said many times before the season and early on would have a “renaissance year.” Possessing a 3.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 125 Ks in 135 inning, it’s safe to say that I’ve been 100-percent right, although that’s only up until this point. Volquez has yielded four runs or more in each of his past two starts, but I’m confident he’s about to turn it around again. No. 1, in his last start against the Mets, in which he lasted a career-low 1.2 innings, Volquez had developed a blister, which got to him mentally and physically. In fact, he even said, “When you have that in your mind, you’ve lost confidence in your pitches. You don’t want to throw your breaking ball because it will hurt you… but you don’t trust your fastball, either, because you feel pain. It’s just tough.” See, that’s very crucial because if you don’t have confidence, you’renot going to be successful, as I’ve stressed a thousand times, mentality is EVERYTHING in being a pitcher, which is what fascinates me most and has drawn me so close to my dear over/unders over the years. If you’re mindset isn’t right, you’re very vulnerable to Major League hitters, and that’s exactly what happened to Volquez in that previous outing. However, now that he’s healed, along with the fact that he’ll be extra motivated to atone for his past two off starts, that should mean it is more likely we will see the normal Edinson Volquez, and if that’s the case, matched up against the normal James McDonald, then we are more likely to see a dandy of a pitcher’s duel. Even if that’s not the case, we can still escape with a push in the event of a possible 5-3 outcome, which makes the under so desirable being at 8.
Other 8/10 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Tyler Chatwood vs Tim Lincecum UNDER 7 - Price TBD/Analysis To Be Added
Clay Buchholz vs Chris Seddon OVER 8.5 - $25 for $20
Paul Maholm vs Matt Harvey UNDER 8 - $22for $18
Freddy Garcia vs Ricky Romero OVER 9.5 - $17 for $15
Would Also Recommend:
Clayton Kershaw vs Mark Buehrle OVER 7
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
