2012 MLB O/U Record: 276-259-28, -$1,485 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
4-1 yesterday (Not to mention once again winning my recommended game that I didn’t bet; I’m hitting at least 60-percent of those, which is very frustrating, actually), including another daily best bet victory, which gives me seven successful ones in the past eight days. My current run is now at a very nice 22-9-1, but the key in sustaining these winning ways is to not get content. Far too many times, not just in gambling but in anything, you see someone go on a long, extensive run, only to completely fall off the wagon because they lose that sense of urgency that got them there in the first place because they become too content with their past work and settle. I, on the other hand, have always recognized that MENTALITY is the most important element in pretty much anything, gambling especially, which is why I’m not too caught up in whatever run I’m on, and am strictly focused on the slate of games at hand, including this mid-August Sunday. Let’s see what we have on tap…
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins (Best Bet) - $66 for $60
Chris Capuano vs Wade LeBlanc
UNDER 8
A lot of times, your best bets are the ones featuring pitchers you don’t often bet on because it immediately wipes out any possibility of letting personal bias cloud your better judgment (Ex. James McDonald on Friday night). In this case, we have a pitching matchup consisting of two pitchers I don’t normally bet on. In fact, I’m pretty sure it’s been months since I last touched a Chris Capuano game, fearing his regression, or potentially inexplicable lack of inevitable regression, would single-handedly ruin an over/under. Well, he has certainly regressed, although not as much as most predicted, as while he’s off from the pace that saw him bring a 2.14 ERA into June, his mark currently stands at 3.29, which is more than respectable. In addition, his WHIP is still relatively low (1.23), and perhaps most astounding of all is that he’s been able to maintain a high strikeout rate, registering 125 punch-outs in 142 innings of work. I mean, when you think of pitchers that average a strikeout per inning, or close to it, you wouldn’t expect Capuano to be hovering around that list, but he is, and that’s a large reason for his major success in 2012. Cap is coming off one of his best starts in the past two months, in which he shut down the division rival Rockies on Monday night to two runs over seven innings, while walking just one and striking out six, which is a very likable pattern from the southpaw - I already mentioned his above-average K numbers, but it’s also his low number of walks (Only 42 for the season) that contributes to him being so delightful. Considering the Marlins are in the bottom five in the National League against left-handed pitching, that’s something that could also factor into a potential solid start from thef ormer 18-game winner.
Meanwhile, while we have a lot of information to base off of as it pertains to Chris Capuano, we do not have that same luxury concerning Wade LeBlanc, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. When Anibal Sanchez was dealt to Detroit, it opened up a spot in the rotation for the former Padre left-hander, who, despite his short outings since slotting onto the pitching staff, has looked fabulous. Yes, LeBlanc’s two starts resulted in him going less than five innings each time out, but it wasn’t because he was getting hit. It was simply due to Ozzie Guillen re-stretching him out (He had made at least ten starts in each of the previous three seasons before being positioned in a bullpen role early in 2012), thus limiting him to 70-85 pitches in those first two assignments. Well, that’s all LeBlanc should need, considering he was starting again in Triple-A before being recalled to replace the departed Sanchez, and I watched him personally in one of those games, reminding me well how good he was for most of his time in San Diego. Yes, LeBlanc finished up with a not-pretty 4.63 ERA in 2011, but before that, his ERA was in the high 3’s/low 4’s, which you might call a product of pitching half your games at Petco Park, but LeBlanc also had pretty good strikeout numbers (110 in 146 innings in 2010, 30 in 46 innings in 2009). He’s shown some more of that in his two starts thus far, punching out seven in 8.1 innings, while only surrendering two runs and walking just three. LeBlanc always showed some potential in San Diego, and perhaps it is finally fully translating in Miami, playing for a team that actually has a chance at contending (Even if it’s not this year, but absolutely next year). Therefore, LeBlanc is essentially auditioning for a rotation spot for 2013, and based on what he’s shown so far, he could easily develop into a mainstay, just like he was in San Diego. The matchup he draws today is a pretty good one, as while the Dodgers actually do have an intimidating offense now, they’re fifth-worst in the NL against left-handed pitching, which should give LeBlanc an advantage right out of the gate. And hey, this is someone who has allowed only four total runs in 24 innings so the southpaw has been good and consistent in every role handed to him. Eight runs should be enough to work with in this Sunday afternoon affair, especially if we see vintage Wade LeBlanc now that his starting leash is off again.
Other 8/12 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jon Lester vs Corey Kluber OVER 8.5 - $27 for $25
Yovani Gallardo vs Jordan Lyles UNDER 8 - $25 for $20
Ben Sheets vs Jon Niese OVER 7 - $24 for $20
Also Recommend (But Not Taking. I’m winning over 60-percent of these):
Lance Lynn vs Vance Worley OVER 8.5(Line should be 7.5 or 8; Had an over vibe anyway)
Ross Ohlendorf vs Erik Bedard UNDER 8
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
4-1 yesterday (Not to mention once again winning my recommended game that I didn’t bet; I’m hitting at least 60-percent of those, which is very frustrating, actually), including another daily best bet victory, which gives me seven successful ones in the past eight days. My current run is now at a very nice 22-9-1, but the key in sustaining these winning ways is to not get content. Far too many times, not just in gambling but in anything, you see someone go on a long, extensive run, only to completely fall off the wagon because they lose that sense of urgency that got them there in the first place because they become too content with their past work and settle. I, on the other hand, have always recognized that MENTALITY is the most important element in pretty much anything, gambling especially, which is why I’m not too caught up in whatever run I’m on, and am strictly focused on the slate of games at hand, including this mid-August Sunday. Let’s see what we have on tap…
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins (Best Bet) - $66 for $60
Chris Capuano vs Wade LeBlanc
UNDER 8
A lot of times, your best bets are the ones featuring pitchers you don’t often bet on because it immediately wipes out any possibility of letting personal bias cloud your better judgment (Ex. James McDonald on Friday night). In this case, we have a pitching matchup consisting of two pitchers I don’t normally bet on. In fact, I’m pretty sure it’s been months since I last touched a Chris Capuano game, fearing his regression, or potentially inexplicable lack of inevitable regression, would single-handedly ruin an over/under. Well, he has certainly regressed, although not as much as most predicted, as while he’s off from the pace that saw him bring a 2.14 ERA into June, his mark currently stands at 3.29, which is more than respectable. In addition, his WHIP is still relatively low (1.23), and perhaps most astounding of all is that he’s been able to maintain a high strikeout rate, registering 125 punch-outs in 142 innings of work. I mean, when you think of pitchers that average a strikeout per inning, or close to it, you wouldn’t expect Capuano to be hovering around that list, but he is, and that’s a large reason for his major success in 2012. Cap is coming off one of his best starts in the past two months, in which he shut down the division rival Rockies on Monday night to two runs over seven innings, while walking just one and striking out six, which is a very likable pattern from the southpaw - I already mentioned his above-average K numbers, but it’s also his low number of walks (Only 42 for the season) that contributes to him being so delightful. Considering the Marlins are in the bottom five in the National League against left-handed pitching, that’s something that could also factor into a potential solid start from thef ormer 18-game winner.
Meanwhile, while we have a lot of information to base off of as it pertains to Chris Capuano, we do not have that same luxury concerning Wade LeBlanc, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. When Anibal Sanchez was dealt to Detroit, it opened up a spot in the rotation for the former Padre left-hander, who, despite his short outings since slotting onto the pitching staff, has looked fabulous. Yes, LeBlanc’s two starts resulted in him going less than five innings each time out, but it wasn’t because he was getting hit. It was simply due to Ozzie Guillen re-stretching him out (He had made at least ten starts in each of the previous three seasons before being positioned in a bullpen role early in 2012), thus limiting him to 70-85 pitches in those first two assignments. Well, that’s all LeBlanc should need, considering he was starting again in Triple-A before being recalled to replace the departed Sanchez, and I watched him personally in one of those games, reminding me well how good he was for most of his time in San Diego. Yes, LeBlanc finished up with a not-pretty 4.63 ERA in 2011, but before that, his ERA was in the high 3’s/low 4’s, which you might call a product of pitching half your games at Petco Park, but LeBlanc also had pretty good strikeout numbers (110 in 146 innings in 2010, 30 in 46 innings in 2009). He’s shown some more of that in his two starts thus far, punching out seven in 8.1 innings, while only surrendering two runs and walking just three. LeBlanc always showed some potential in San Diego, and perhaps it is finally fully translating in Miami, playing for a team that actually has a chance at contending (Even if it’s not this year, but absolutely next year). Therefore, LeBlanc is essentially auditioning for a rotation spot for 2013, and based on what he’s shown so far, he could easily develop into a mainstay, just like he was in San Diego. The matchup he draws today is a pretty good one, as while the Dodgers actually do have an intimidating offense now, they’re fifth-worst in the NL against left-handed pitching, which should give LeBlanc an advantage right out of the gate. And hey, this is someone who has allowed only four total runs in 24 innings so the southpaw has been good and consistent in every role handed to him. Eight runs should be enough to work with in this Sunday afternoon affair, especially if we see vintage Wade LeBlanc now that his starting leash is off again.
Other 8/12 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jon Lester vs Corey Kluber OVER 8.5 - $27 for $25
Yovani Gallardo vs Jordan Lyles UNDER 8 - $25 for $20
Ben Sheets vs Jon Niese OVER 7 - $24 for $20
Also Recommend (But Not Taking. I’m winning over 60-percent of these):
Lance Lynn vs Vance Worley OVER 8.5(Line should be 7.5 or 8; Had an over vibe anyway)
Ross Ohlendorf vs Erik Bedard UNDER 8
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**