The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 13, 2012 - YTD: 280-259-29 (Currently on a 26-9-2 run! Have also won 8 out of past 9 best b

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 280-259-29, -$1,365 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Let this be a lesson to everyone: Hard work does indeed pay off, especially when you’ve ridden this rodeo before (Doing MLB Over/Unders literally every single day for an entire year, as I did in 2011) and realize that success is inevitable. As regular readers know, it’s been a longggg, bizarre season for The Cat, one that has featured countless strange fluke bad breaks (I should write a book on them after the season, considering how creepily consistent they’ve been), but at the current moment, all of that is behind me, as I seek to continue my remarkable 26-9-2 run over the past week-and-change, which also includes eight successful best bets out of nine. Yesterday’s 4-0-1 performance (SHOULD have been 5-0, considering how excellent Gallardo and Lyles each were in seven innings; Under 8 clearly should have won and not pushed, if not for unearned runs) further emphasized what I’ve got going on, and as everyone should notice, I EARN all of my wins, needing no breaks or garbage to go my way, as opposed to how a good majority of my losses this year have been because of weird, unusual breaks. Anyway, as I’ve said too many times in the past, betting is all mental more than anything, so it’s important not to dwell on whatever run you may be, and to just focus on the day at hand, which is the root of how you got to whatever run you’re on in the first place. That being said, let’s move on to the new week…


Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants (Best Bet) - Price TBD
Gio Gonzalez vs Ryan Vogelsong
UNDER 6.5 (Wait till gametime to see if line goes up to 7, which it might)

Listen, you guys know me. More times than not, my best bets involve some of the more obscure pitchers in baseball (Eric Stults, Blake Beavan, Nathan Adcock, Lucas Harrell, Bud Norris, etc.), so when I bust out a best bet that consists of two world-class pitchers, that has to be a good sign. Unlike most people, I don’t consistently go after the high-profile matchups. Why? I’ve always prided myself on being more knowledgeable with the lower-tier pitchers (Such as the ones I already mentioned) than just about anybody out there. That’s how I acclimated myself asI grew up loving baseball more than anything - I’ve always liked focusing more on the underappreciated starting pitchers throughout time (Omar Daal, Jose Rosado, Rick Helling, Aaron Myette, Brian Moehler, Ken Hill, Glendon Rusch, etc.).But, obviously, this is an instance where I’m attacking a matchup of tw owell-known, all-star pitchers, and I think my under vibe is well-warranted.

Gio Gonzalez, for as terrific as he’s been these past few years (Including when he was quietly racking up under-after-under-after-under for me in 2010, as Vegas didn’t immediately notice his great talent and potential in Oakland like I did), is actually coming off only his first ever nine-inning complete game, which he accomplished this past Wednesday in Houston. Given his struggles since the all-star break (Four runs or more allowed in three of his six starts), that has to be a huge confidence boost, which should certainly aide Gonzalez in returning to his old dominant 2012 form, the one that led everyone in believing he could lock up the National League Cy Young award. He’s obviously still one of the main names talked about in the discussion, but his below-average (For him, at least) second half has given people doubts. However, after his dominating outing in Houston, I think this is what puts Gio back on his normal path, when he was so remarkably consistent every five days throughout the first half. Another contributing factor to that belief is his re-emerging strikeout numbers, having punched out 17 batters combined over the past two starts. That was a huge contribution to his earlier season dominance, and if he’s doing that again, then he’s incredibly, incredibly tough to beat, let alone score a bunch of runs on. The left-hander has been excellent in west coast parks this year (Two runs combined in 12 innings pitching in Los Angeles and San Diego), and with this affair being set in another west coast pitcher’s park like AT&T Park, Gio’s chances for yet another nice start look good. Hopefully Pablo Sandoval (.317 vs lefties) remains out of the lineup tonight, which should solidify this under.

Ah, and then there is Ryan Vogelsong, one of my favorite stories from a year ago. Miraculously, he never lost a beat from his storybook 2011, and he’s actually been even better in 2012, which makes it all the more impressive. A lot of times, you see a guy, no matter the sport, have a great season out of nowhere, before disappearing back into obscurity because they get too content, ‘lax up, and ultimately settle with their one outstanding year. In the case of Vogelsong, though, this is someone who is a workaholic, a guy who takes nothing for granted, and it’s shown in his numbers once again. Last year, Vogelsong was 13-7 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, while maintaining a very nifty .244 batting average against. This season? 10-5 with a 2.27 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .215 BAA. I mean, that’s amazing. Considering how irrelevant Vogelsong was in his first Major League go-around with the Pirates circa 2006, it’s just mind-boggling how out of nowhere and quickly he has ascended to the top of his position, so much so that like his counterpart tonight, the Giants’ right-hander definitely has to be in the running for the NL Cy Young. It’s not even a question, especially with RA Dickey’s second-half drop-off. Vogelsong’s recent track record, which has seen him yield one run or less in four out of his past five starts, suggest no sudden bad outing from the 35-year old, meaning he should contribute at least somewhat of a normal effort, which would put us in a very good position to win this under, especially if the line goes up to 7 like it might (Since the extra juice has been on Over 6.5 all day). Just a very nice pitching matchup that I think will live up to the hype and provide the crowd with an entertaining duel.

Other 8/13 MLB Over/Unders I'm Taking:
Eric Stults vs Mike Minor OVER 8 - $30 for $25
I’m going to save you all this week from my usual 700-word description on just how great and underrated Eric Stults really is, especially since for the first time this year, I actually have a distinct over vibe for one of his starts. For newer readers, I’ve been clamoring as to why he had no starts in 2010 and 2011, ever since his fine showcase of starts in 2009 when he caught my eye with the Dodgers, and right before his very first start this season (With the White Sox, remember), I basically guaranteed this guy would be a success, making me perhaps the only writer in the country on record of making such an outlandish remark. Well, this time out, I don’t think he’ll be as effective as he usually is, even though Atlanta is significantly less dangerous offensively against lefties (Law of Averages could kick inthere, since they’re so immensely talented). Either that, or Mike Minor, who has been simply marvelous since almost losing his rotation spot a month-and-a-half ago, is in for an off outing. No matter what, one of these guys is due to come off the tracks a bit, but because my boy Eric Stults is involved, I have to keep it to a limited-sized bet.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 
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This was posted in my thread for yesterday so I'll address it here:

Interested in your take on Cleveland at Anaheim. BOL

Ehh I was hoping no one would ask me about this game because it's truly one of those games that could go either way, especially with the line at 7.5, thus putting this contest seemingly in no-man's land. While he's not one of my favorites or anything, I have been remarkably excellent with Justin Masterson this year (I look forward to seeing what my record is with him at the end of the season), but the fact remains that he's had the tendency to produce a really great start or a really bad one. This is one of the rare Masterson games where I don't really have a vibe on how he's going to perform. As for CJ Wilson, this guy is a Buyer's Beware item right now. He was so incredibly consistent for most of the season up until the past month, which has seen him allow a boatload of runs, which is very unusual for him. Thus, I have no idea how he's feeling mentally and would wait to see him get back on track before placing any type of bet on him to get a better idea of where he is with his mindset.

My advice with this game is to just stay away.
 

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Good to see you on sf under cat. Watching mlb network the dude said actually said if he was a wagering man he would put a few shekels on the under lol. Ill probably chase it. Gl today cat
 
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Good to see you on sf under cat. Watching mlb network the dude said actually said if he was a wagering man he would put a few shekels on the under lol. Ill probably chase it. Gl today cat

Lol actually that doesn't make me feel so good. In my view, I find that when these TV or radio "experts" make comments like that, they're wrong more times than not (Most notable example is Mike Francesa going 0-for-3 or 0-for-4 with over/under MLB win totals a couple of years ago) because they usually go with the general, common consensus. Hopefully whoever said that (Hope it wasn't Dan Plesac) doesn't jinx it.
 
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Couple of thoughts on other 7 o'clock games:

Harang vs Karstens I would recommend the under of 8. As ive mentioned, Karstens was actually my best pitcher all of last year and he's almost always lights out at home.

Hamels vs Eovaldi I'd recommend the under as well IF you can snag it at 8. I'm laying off with it at 7.5 because 5-3 is very, very likely; should end up in that range
 
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Not taking it but I recommend from the 8 o'clock slate:

Sanchez vs Deduno OVER 9.5
Would take it if it was 9 but I don't want to lose with a potential 5-4 score
 
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Rare loss, albeit a small one, to start my card. Eric Stults was terrific, making my early-season writings on him (As well as throughout most of the season) look brilliant. Who else said this guy would be as good as he has been like I predicted? Anyway, have my final amount for tonight's best bet...

Gio Gonzalez vs Ryan Vogelsong UNDER 6.5 - $61 for $55
It's also nice that Pablo Sandoval is NOT in the lineup, which could make a huge difference. 2-0/3-1 is in the cards.
 
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You know, when a guy (Ryan Vogelsong) ties a FRANCHISE RECORD with one of the most historic sports organizations in the country, that being for most consecutive home starts allowing two runs or less (An incredible 12!), it's supposed to be a given that even if he doesn't continue that streak, he at least contributes a decent outing.

Of course, that was not the case (Was there someone in the country who had the over and thought Vogelsong would give up that many runs? Not one?), although I can't fully blame him as shotty defense (Including the ball hit to Scutaro that wasn't ruled an error, but should have been a double play ball), and an awful blown call at first base on the Bernadina ground ball (Not to mention a blown strike call, as K-Zone even showed, in the first that led to Zimmerman's RBI double), contributed to him getting rocked.

This is why I prefer to stay away from these "high-profile" matchups with my best bets.
 
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Anddd as usual, I'm right on with my Recommend Over/Unders, going 2-1, continuing my frustrating trend of winning over 60-percent of those. Unreal
 
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14-0 in the fifth inning... there is no possible amount of capping or research that could have predicted how this game has played out, which has actually made me feel better because on a lot of days, there's always one or two games that just don't make any sense. You can have everything in your favor (Ex. Ryan Vogelsong HAD THE BEST HOME ERA IN THE NATIONAL FUCKING LEAGUE), but no matter what, there's no escaping certain dud games that just kind of take a life of their own and make no sense whatsoever. I can take solace in that, at least.

If I could make a baseball analogy, I feel just like Ryan Vogelsong right now - an early visit to the showers (In other words, turning the game off real early), trying to look past what just happened and start looking towards my next start (Next slate of over/unders, that obviously being tomorrow). So, yeah, I feel just as embarrassed as Ryan Vogelsong does right about now.
 

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you really went out on a limb there with that analysis. You could have just put "I like the under because both pitchers are really good at baseball" and that would have served the same purpose.
 
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you really went out on a limb there with that analysis. You could have just put "I like the under because both pitchers are really good at baseball" and that would have served the same purpose.

I can't tell if you're trying to be a wise ass or serious.

BUT, if you consistently pay attention to my daily 1,000 word articles, you'd know I ALWAYS go out on a limb and go after the mostly under-the-radar matchups (Ex. Yesterday's best bet Capuano vs LeBlanc under, Saturday's best bet Nova vs Laffey under, Friday night's Tyler Chatwood under, VARIOUS Lucas Harrell unders, the list goes on). This was an absolute rarity attacking a pitching matchup featuring two world-class pitchers, and it will continue to be a rarity because my main strength is finding diamonds in the rough (Was there another person in the country besides me who wrote 800 words on the greatness of Eric Stults before his very first start, even though it was his first since 2009? No?)

Weak insult, if that's what you were getting at.
 

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lol most games have have at least one so called "obscure" pitcher in them. Today Fiers, Deduno, Villanueva, Eovaldi, Phelps, Stults, Cobb, Beaven, if you are going to count Bud Norris as "obscure" then I think Samardzija, Galarraga would be considered "obscure" as well based on sample size and results. 8 out of 11 games had one. You pick about two games a day. The chances you picking at least one game with an "obscure" pitcher is very high.

As far as Stults, who cares? Here was your reasoning "
I actually have a distinct over vibe for one of his starts" wtf does that mean? In other words that means "I have no reasoning and my bet is actually based on nothing". Please keep posting your "feeling" or "vibe" on games so I know when you are flipping coins, which is honestly dude what you are doing anyways. You called heads on Stults and it landed tails. Btw he sucks. His career k/9 at any level as well as this year's k/9 is ridiculously awful, his career BB/9 at any level is awful. He is pitching way worse than his ERA has proven for obvious reasons. Average 87 mph fastball at age 33. Have fun with that
 

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