The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 14, 2012 - YTD: 280-261-29

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 280-261-29, -$1,456 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Was on an invincible 26-9-2 run before last night’s 0-2 (Not including my 2-1 record in my recommended over/unders, continuing that frustrating trend of me winning over 60-percent of those games), but ithappens, especially when a new week begins and you kind of reset yourself mentally, leaving you prone to off days… it’s human nature. Anyway, the important thing is to minimize it and get back on track, although that may be tough to do with what looks like a pretty tough slate of games tonight. As a result, I’m most likely sticking with lower-sized bets on this Tuesday evening…


Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs - Price TBD (Waiting to see if Chris Snyder is catching)
Lucas Harrell vs Chris Volstad
UNDER 8.5

Yes, I know I sound like a broken record when I continue to profess my love for the vastly underrated Lucas Harrell, as I have been doing it since APRIL when I designated him as one of my top three sleeper starting pitchers coming into 2012 (Could I have been anymore right with the 2011 waiver claim?? Nope), but his performance this year speaks for itself. Rather than go over it for the zillionth time, let me address one of his few glaring weaknesses, that being his shortcomings he sometimesexperiences away from home (5.50 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in 13 road starts). Let’s just put this way: With the way Harrell is pitching right now, he could pump out a quality start even if his assignment was scheduled in someone’s backyard. His last six starts have seen him surrender two runs or less, three of those coming on the road. Harrell is just in such a groove right now, really savoring his first full opportunity in the bigs, and when guys like that are pitching with their most confidence, their rhythm just continues for an extended period of time because they feel so comfortable. Part of that comfort is trusting your catcher, which is why I’m delaying how much I put on this game, because I want to make sure Chris Snyder (Harrell’s personal catcher who he’s had a lot of success with over the past two months) is behind the plate tonight over the returning (And underrated, offensively) Jason Castro. You have to look out for those key, key variables.

Speaking of being comfortable, ChrisVolstad was anything but that before returning to the Major Leagues a couple of weeks ago, considering he hasn’t won since last July (!). However, in his two starts since being recalled, Volstad has been very solid, giving up five runs over 13 innings (Including a start where he almost out-dueled Clayton Kershawin LA. Hey, speaking of that, Lucas Harrell accomplished that feat earlier this year in one of my favorite duels of 2012! Remember that memorable game?), while keeping the walks (3) to an absolute minimum, which is crucial because that was one of the main factors in his downfall throughout the early portion of this year. He’s a very mentally-oriented pitcher, so when he’s losing batters and allowing too many baserunners, he falters way too easily. How do I know that? Well, if you do as much homework as I do, you’d know that Volstad’s situation was so severe thathe had actually had to see a sports psychologist, and with some additional help from his dad, Volstad righted himself mentally. The results have proved successful up to this point, and going up against arguably the worst offense in baseball tonight, this is an opportunity Volstad cannot waste, especially if he wants to get off the schnide when it comes to winning a ballgame. The onlything I’m concerned with is that he’ll put more pressure on himself to get that win going into this start, due to the above-average expectations of facing the lowly Astros, but I believe his two starts (Which were both quality ones, by the way) since returning have helped solidify himself into returning to the fine form he was once in as a Marlin. The main concern is both bullpens, but that’s a risk worth taking if both starters continue in their current grooves.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 
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Snyder is catching

Ah thank you for that information, skyla. Makes me relieved. With my luck, I thought Castro would inexplicably catch tonight and ruin Lucas Harrell's groove, but with Snyder back there, Harrell should keep doing the great things he's been doing ever since April. Plus, it's great for any under when a dead bat like .180-hitting Snyder is in the lineup haha
 

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GL catman. Any lean on sox/o's total...wonderin why its not going to 9 yet.:think2:
 
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GL catman. Any lean on sox/o's total...wonderin why its not going to 9 yet.:think2:

I actually like the under and was leaning towards taking it; think we can get one of those 4-3 type of affairs. But yes, I'm waiting for it to go to 9, which is where it should be at.
 
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Surprisingly, I'm going to resist taking any 7 o'clock games. Thought Beckett vs Chen would go to 9 but it hasn't, probably meaning Vegas has a bit of an under vibe as well, otherwise they'd give potential under backers the luxury of being protected in the event of a 6-3 kind of game in that particular pitching matchup with those two live offenses in a hitter's park.

Some days, as good as you may be, the smart pick is just laying low, minimizing your bets, and conceding defeat to a day in the form of discipline. Therefore, only probably taking two over/unders today
 
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Anddd as usual, my recommended over/under (Beckett vs Chen under 8.5) is well on pace. Anyway, final $$ amount for my lone 8 o'clock game:

Lucas Harrell vs Chris Volstad UNDER 8.5 - $36 for $30
 
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Ahh damn. Of course the one and only main reason I took that under, my boy Lucas Harrell, is throwing a shutout. Volstad actually wasn't that bad for an under 8.5; they just took him out too early and put garbage in after him.

Anyway, doubt I'll have any action the rest of the night but I recommend Jimenez vs Greinke under 8 and Bumgarner vs Zimmermann under 6.5
 

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