2012 MLB O/U Record: 281-264-29, -$1,527 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Alright, time to get down to business. Yesterday’s 1-2 day made me 1-5 overall in the three days since my remarkable 26-9-2 run over the prior two weeks, but during this current 1-5 slump, I’ve at least been doing small bets, mentally recognizing that my sense of urgency just hasn’t quite been there. It’s human nature after having the extreme success that I had over an extensive period of time, but that’s why betting is all a mental thing: You have to continually maintain the same sense of urgency and energy you do for every single night, otherwise off days will happen. I felt more loose when looking at the games for this Thursday so that helped, and also led me into my biggest bet of this week thus far…
PhiladelphiaPhillies @ Milwaukee Brewers (Best Bet) - Price TBD
Cliff Lee vs Marco Estrada
UNDER [Wait till gametime for line to go to 8; would stilltake at 7.5]
As soon as I saw this game during my nightly initial review of each particular pitching matchup for the day ahead, it stuck out right away, which is a very good sign for our chances of securing tonight’s best bet. Another encouraging sign is that it’s a matchup of two teams and pitchers that I don’t specifically lock in on, meaning that I automatically had much more of a natural vibe rather than a forced one, which usually proves to be more successful because mentally, as long as you’re not forcing it, that means you have a solid foundation from where the aforementioned vibe came from. At the end of the day, it’s a potentially salivating pitcher’s duel between two starting hurlers who surprisingly aren’t making much noise in the win column this year.
First off, there’s the obvious known commodity in Cliff Lee, whose lack of wins this year has been greatly detailed by fans and analysts all over. Does that mean his career is on the downfall? Not necessarily. It’s not like the former Cy Young is getting hit because he’s certainly not at all. Despite being 2-7, Lee’s statistics are perfectly acceptable and on par with his typical averages, as his ERA sits at a nice 3.85, while his WHIP is a sparkling 1.18. Furthermore, Lee’s legendary control is still intact, as evident in the fact that he’s only walked 24 batters in 140 innings. At the same time, he’s maintained his impressive strikeout rate that he’s always had, punching out 130 batters in those many innings of work. So, you see, Cliff Lee is not far from his norm, and that’s a good thing as the rest of the season rolls on, specifically into tonight. What helps us even more is that the Phillies are actually making quite a little push at the current moment; while they’re still far from a wild card berth (Although 10 games actually isn’t that far out), Philadelphia has played tremendous baseball over the past several weeks en route to escaping the NL East cellar, and aside from that, this is a group of very prideful players that have gone deep into the playoffs before - players like Cliff Lee. Therefore, this is a winning bunch, and they certainly will keep playing hard to finish in the best position possible. With their recent momentum helping them just about catch the Mets, I think they’ll continue to play at this current high level, which should give Lee a boost psychologically. Oh, and he knows that as long as his team continues to play this well, and as long as he continues to pitch theway he has all year, then racking up wins and improving upon his lackluster record is inevitable. A fully mentally-set Cliff Lee is a very, very tough pitcher to face.
And then there is Lee’s counterpart tonight, Marco Estrada, who actually has been dealing with bigger issues as it pertains to winning ballgames. In fact, it’s mid-August and Estrada still has zero wins, but that is not at all a testament of how he’s pitched this year. Just take a look at the season statline of the Brewers’ right-hander and you’ll notice he’s been quite good, even exhibiting the same great control and excellent strikeout numbers that we often see from Cliff Lee. In 2012, Estrada has pitched in 20 games (14 starts), spanning a total of 84.2 IP, and while he’s an unpleasant 0-5, his ERA is fine sitting at 4.36, while possessing an even better WHIP than Lee at 1.17. Most impressive of all, like tonight’s opponent, is that dazzling K:BB ratio, which for him is 86:16! Remember, that’s in 84 innings of work, which is certainly no small sample size, and the fact that he has maintained a 1 K/IP rate establishes him as potentially being one of the better strikeout pitcher if he solidifies a permanent spot in Milwaukee’s rotation in the years to come. Thus, while this goes against my opinion of him in 2011 (I thought he was an unspectacular starting pitcher with a short ceiling), Estrada has convinced me otherwise with his evolution throughout this season, leading me to believe that he can indeed be a consistent effective starter. Still having zero wins on the year, much like Cliff Lee at one point, he’ll certainly be extra motivated in trying to garner that elusive first one.
Other 8/16 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
David Price vs Dan Haren UNDER 7.5 - $21 for $20
I can’t believe Vegas has the arrogancet o dish out a David Price over/under in a mostly pitcher’s park at 7.5 To me, this guy is the clear front-runner for the American League Cy Young, and considering how incredibly consistent he’s been this entire season, I don’t think the ship has sailed just yet on him being a sure thing every five days. Therefore, when Vegas offers you that extra half-run with how good Price has been, you take it. Just as important, Dan Haren, while not the perennial ace he used to be, is throwing his best ball of the season (Forget his last outing. Before that, he had allowed only four runs in his previous three starts, which was a huge string for him given how he’s struggled for most of ‘12). The fact that we can win with a very likely and common 5-2 outcome is actually a generous move for under bettors on the part of the linesmakers.
Over/Unders I Recommend, but am not taking:
Matt Harvey vs Homer Bailey OVER 8.5
Francisco Liriano vs Aaron Laffey OVER8.5
Daniel Straily vs Luke Hochevar OVER 8
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Alright, time to get down to business. Yesterday’s 1-2 day made me 1-5 overall in the three days since my remarkable 26-9-2 run over the prior two weeks, but during this current 1-5 slump, I’ve at least been doing small bets, mentally recognizing that my sense of urgency just hasn’t quite been there. It’s human nature after having the extreme success that I had over an extensive period of time, but that’s why betting is all a mental thing: You have to continually maintain the same sense of urgency and energy you do for every single night, otherwise off days will happen. I felt more loose when looking at the games for this Thursday so that helped, and also led me into my biggest bet of this week thus far…
PhiladelphiaPhillies @ Milwaukee Brewers (Best Bet) - Price TBD
Cliff Lee vs Marco Estrada
UNDER [Wait till gametime for line to go to 8; would stilltake at 7.5]
As soon as I saw this game during my nightly initial review of each particular pitching matchup for the day ahead, it stuck out right away, which is a very good sign for our chances of securing tonight’s best bet. Another encouraging sign is that it’s a matchup of two teams and pitchers that I don’t specifically lock in on, meaning that I automatically had much more of a natural vibe rather than a forced one, which usually proves to be more successful because mentally, as long as you’re not forcing it, that means you have a solid foundation from where the aforementioned vibe came from. At the end of the day, it’s a potentially salivating pitcher’s duel between two starting hurlers who surprisingly aren’t making much noise in the win column this year.
First off, there’s the obvious known commodity in Cliff Lee, whose lack of wins this year has been greatly detailed by fans and analysts all over. Does that mean his career is on the downfall? Not necessarily. It’s not like the former Cy Young is getting hit because he’s certainly not at all. Despite being 2-7, Lee’s statistics are perfectly acceptable and on par with his typical averages, as his ERA sits at a nice 3.85, while his WHIP is a sparkling 1.18. Furthermore, Lee’s legendary control is still intact, as evident in the fact that he’s only walked 24 batters in 140 innings. At the same time, he’s maintained his impressive strikeout rate that he’s always had, punching out 130 batters in those many innings of work. So, you see, Cliff Lee is not far from his norm, and that’s a good thing as the rest of the season rolls on, specifically into tonight. What helps us even more is that the Phillies are actually making quite a little push at the current moment; while they’re still far from a wild card berth (Although 10 games actually isn’t that far out), Philadelphia has played tremendous baseball over the past several weeks en route to escaping the NL East cellar, and aside from that, this is a group of very prideful players that have gone deep into the playoffs before - players like Cliff Lee. Therefore, this is a winning bunch, and they certainly will keep playing hard to finish in the best position possible. With their recent momentum helping them just about catch the Mets, I think they’ll continue to play at this current high level, which should give Lee a boost psychologically. Oh, and he knows that as long as his team continues to play this well, and as long as he continues to pitch theway he has all year, then racking up wins and improving upon his lackluster record is inevitable. A fully mentally-set Cliff Lee is a very, very tough pitcher to face.
And then there is Lee’s counterpart tonight, Marco Estrada, who actually has been dealing with bigger issues as it pertains to winning ballgames. In fact, it’s mid-August and Estrada still has zero wins, but that is not at all a testament of how he’s pitched this year. Just take a look at the season statline of the Brewers’ right-hander and you’ll notice he’s been quite good, even exhibiting the same great control and excellent strikeout numbers that we often see from Cliff Lee. In 2012, Estrada has pitched in 20 games (14 starts), spanning a total of 84.2 IP, and while he’s an unpleasant 0-5, his ERA is fine sitting at 4.36, while possessing an even better WHIP than Lee at 1.17. Most impressive of all, like tonight’s opponent, is that dazzling K:BB ratio, which for him is 86:16! Remember, that’s in 84 innings of work, which is certainly no small sample size, and the fact that he has maintained a 1 K/IP rate establishes him as potentially being one of the better strikeout pitcher if he solidifies a permanent spot in Milwaukee’s rotation in the years to come. Thus, while this goes against my opinion of him in 2011 (I thought he was an unspectacular starting pitcher with a short ceiling), Estrada has convinced me otherwise with his evolution throughout this season, leading me to believe that he can indeed be a consistent effective starter. Still having zero wins on the year, much like Cliff Lee at one point, he’ll certainly be extra motivated in trying to garner that elusive first one.
Other 8/16 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
David Price vs Dan Haren UNDER 7.5 - $21 for $20
I can’t believe Vegas has the arrogancet o dish out a David Price over/under in a mostly pitcher’s park at 7.5 To me, this guy is the clear front-runner for the American League Cy Young, and considering how incredibly consistent he’s been this entire season, I don’t think the ship has sailed just yet on him being a sure thing every five days. Therefore, when Vegas offers you that extra half-run with how good Price has been, you take it. Just as important, Dan Haren, while not the perennial ace he used to be, is throwing his best ball of the season (Forget his last outing. Before that, he had allowed only four runs in his previous three starts, which was a huge string for him given how he’s struggled for most of ‘12). The fact that we can win with a very likely and common 5-2 outcome is actually a generous move for under bettors on the part of the linesmakers.
Over/Unders I Recommend, but am not taking:
Matt Harvey vs Homer Bailey OVER 8.5
Francisco Liriano vs Aaron Laffey OVER8.5
Daniel Straily vs Luke Hochevar OVER 8
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
