Sunday: My First Play is One NOT to Overthink YTD: 359-312, + 88.7 units

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Saturday: 4-3, + 5.7 units. Some 9th inning heartburn by both Giants and A's, but both teams are slugging enough to give their BPs some breathing room. Sorry if you tailed my Tiger/ Balt plays, but my totals have been mediocre all year. Will be away Monday and Tuesday, and not sure how I'll get my plays in. Maybe a losing Sunday, and you'll all be glad for a break.

Reds: RL. 5 units (-125) Don't like to play RLs this high in units, but there's a lot to like about this game. I challenge you to find another pitcher with a better last 11 starts than Mat Latos. He is known for getting better as the season goes on but this year he is taking it to another level. Especially in the Great American HR Park. He rarely gives up long balls, and his control has gotten to the excellent level. His slider is to be feared, but also has good movement on his fastball, and uses a curve and change up well. Good for the Cubs. They knocked around the Reds new pitcher yesterday, and a couple of middle relievers, and yet they still almost blew game 2 of the DH. Remember the Cubs only had 5 hits in game one and have played miserably in August. I also like that Volstad is going for the Cubs. He pitched pretty well for him his first few starts, then pitched a weak game vs. the lowly Astros last game. This game is a good example of a MUCH better pitcher, much better team and a team at home. Cubs also stink on the road. Cubs BP also a little overused.
 

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Reds, cont. Also the Reds just saw Volstad on August 9th, and lost that game. I don't see that happening again. Reds have so many guys that have power while the Cubs have so few. One more thing. Even though the Cubs split yesterday, they managed to strike out 21 times.
 

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Tampa. ML. (+132). 3 units. Who's the best team in baseball right now- the Rays, of course! You'll have to excuse their perfect game loss to King Felix(I watched that game and god couldn't have hit him), but obviously they are at their peak. They murdered Weaver, trounced CJ Wilson and have had their way with the Angels. Coming from behind 8 runs is not easy and especially on the road, especially vs. a decent team and especially against a good BP(well, maybe not so much anymore). And who's the better pitcher Sunday, Greinke and Moore? Moore, of course. He has been a total stopper lately- Last 38 IPs, 37 Ks, very few walks and 0 HRs. That's right none. Greinke on the other hand is not just suffering the AL blues. He wasn't pitching that well the month before he left the NL. Greinke can be overwhelming occasionally, but overall, he is just overrated if you ask me. The Rays are also proving to have one very good BP, while the Angels' is waning. I think this ML is so high, like today's, because no one can believe the Angels can get beat at home like this. I might lose this one Sunday, but it's still a good play.
 

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SF Giants. ML. 2 units
SF. RL. One unit.
SF. -1/2 First 5 IPs. One unit. I just have to see this Giants series through to the end. They have hit like champs for the past week, with an excellent BB:K ratio. They are 2-0 in the Post-Melky Era and I think it continues Sunday. Especially with their best starter, Vogelsong. In his last start, he got shelled by the Nats, a very rare occurrence for Vogelsong. Very rare. Looking back over the past 2 years, he always pitched well after a poor outing. Furthermore, he said that in the Nats game he had good stuff, and felt fine. What I think is that statistically he was soooo overdue for a bad game, it had to happen. Hit balls went in gaps or holes between fielders, Vogelsong through a couple of uncharacteristic meatballs. Will it happen again? Not nearly as likely as Clayton Richards doing it. Richards has been steadily declining as this year progresses. i noticed that he pitches well vs. cream puff hitting teams, but gets hit hard vs. good hitting teams- like the Giants right now. The Giants have seen Clayton plenty, know his stuff and hit him pretty well. They also hit lefties better than RHP. With the Dodgers playing well the Giants have to keep winning. By the way, the Pads did get to Zito, but they haven't been hitting well for about a week now.
 

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LAD. ML. One unit. (+113). Hear that whooshing sound? That's the sound of the Braves missing the ball. Atlanta hitters are doing a terrible job lately in making contact- 43 Ks in their last 4 games. This team is being saved by great pitching (Maholm was a great pick up- maybe better than Greinke) and Chipper Jones- who maybe shouldn't retire yet. Minor has pitched well for the past month or so, but has also faced a lot of crummy hitting or slumping teams. You also can't overlook his 23 HRs allowed this year. Billingsley has pitched even better and faced better competition. I also see that he rarely gives up a long ball and walks very few- both stats that portend success. Dodgers seem to be always competitive on this road trip.
 

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KC. ML(+108). One unit. I must be crazy playing Guthrie, but here goes. A lot of players might think that teams in a playoff race usually play well and win often. Not true. Every year, there are teams that fade or seem to play worse. The White Sox might be one of them. Right now, they can't seem to hit or stop the Royals from hitting and winning. For the Royals, this is their playoff series. They are going no where, so wouldn't a home sweep of the contending White Sox be great. The Royals are also getting great clutch hitting lately, which has not always happened for them. Qunitanna has pretty good pitching stats, but not lately. His last 6 starts cumulative have been mediocre- 6 HRs included, and fewer Ks. Now that Guthrie has recovered from his Coors nightmare, he seems to be returning to being at least a competitive pitcher. 0 runs in his last 15 IPs, and he has to be really happy to getting the chance to finish off the Sox Sunday. Redemption.
 

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What a run.

BOL...thanx for the write-ups.
 

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Reds bats need to wake up. Volstad is abysmal...has given up fewer than 4 ERs in only two starts all year. So far, the Reds have done nothing outside of the 1st inning...
 

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Fuck.

Right as I put this play in, I was thinking about how I hadn't been screwed by the run line all year long. In other words, every time I've played a favorite on the run line, they've either won by 2+ or lost outright...both of which benefitted me.

I had a bad feeling the fucking Cubs would end that streak. 4-3 will be the final...just kill me now...
 

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Three freaking Reds errors on the day. Jesus Christ.

fred made a good call on this one. Just got unlucky.
 
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Yeah it is just bad luck Cubs scored runs after each error. This game should be 4-1 but the defense has let Latos down big time.
 

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It was almost as if Cincy had no real fear that they could lose the game so no real worry about not blowing the cubs out.
 

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Never lay runs in baseball

I will never lay runs in baseball again, I should know better.
Great run fred,I will still tail u, you are on fire, I will just play all money lines.
Good Luck.
 

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I would rather lose at -1.5 then -200.

Awesome week, congrats!

This.

If you add up all the number of times you play the run line vs. not playing, you're likely ahead having avoided laying -200 or more a number of times.

Anyway, you'll get it back next week, Fred. Reds probably win this one 9 times out of 10...just got bit in the ass...
 

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