Monday: Playing it Safe YTD: 362-316, + 84.2 units

ofred · Aug 20, 2012

Sunday: 3-4, -4.5 units. I got a sense things were going wrong when the Reds made 3 errors and just didn't get after Volstad early in the game. I've also learned that when my hot streaks end, I need to tone down my units.

Tampa: -1. One unit. The Rays are in the first game of a home set, playing the best baseball of their season. Royals just won huge divisional sweep of the contending White Sox. They might have a let down here. Besides, the Rays just demolished some excellent pitchers in LA, and should be able to deal with Will Smith, who has been steady, but unspectacular. Hellickson has been pitching well of late, and the Royals haven't seen him much. Also, love that Tampa BP. Finally, the Rays always do get the most out of their talent and Joe Madden is very good manager.

ofred · Aug 20, 2012

Mets. RL. One unit. The Mets are healthy. They have played some great competition, and faced some tough pitching. Now they face Alex White who usually gets pulled fairly early in games. I got to think the Mets have enough pride and talent to win this game with Dickey on the mound. Rockies haven't seen Dickey yet this year. Also, the Rockies tend to go dormant on their road trips.

ofred · Aug 20, 2012

Seattle. ML. One unit. The Mariners are playing well at home. That's a good sign of improvement in their young players. They have been horrible most of the year at home, but now have a renewed feeling that they can win. And they did take 2 from the red hot Rays and sweep the Twins. Ubaldo has been getting knocked around lately, and has been especially bad on the road this year. I wonder if his discontent will arise again now that the Indians are so bad. Mariners also have had more success with right handers. Seattle's BP is becoming really deep and of late has been very good. Millwood is nothing special, but the Indians just look helpless at the plate lately. As I've said in earlier posts, their bottom 4 of the lineup is awful, and Kipnis is in a terrible slump. No one is hot either.

mokoman · Aug 20, 2012

Goodluck today.

odee22 · Aug 20, 2012

Just wanted to add my accolades to the rest of your followers. I just started watching your analysis and selections and like your style. After saying that I thought I would throw some of my 66 years back at ya. I think it may be TB that has a let down tonight. They had a hell of a road trip but have been gone for over 10 days and flew back late yesterday aft getting into TB probably pretty late. Lots of Daddy-do's, Honey-do's and other distractions today plus they will be at the park in about 3 hours. I like playing these games and especially at +160 or so. KC is 3-0 this season against TB but that was in June and I can't even remember July. They are also 12-3 when +150 to +175. Now after saying all this, I hope you win as you will have a hell of lot more people on your side than I will and I like it when the majority beats up on the books. BOL I sure hope you don't take this as any negative type of drivel. It is just an old man's thoughts, period. You can also see that I have been around but just don't say much.

varkeyboy · Aug 20, 2012

odee22 said:
Just wanted to add my accolades to the rest of your followers. I just started watching your analysis and selections and like your style. After saying that I thought I would throw some of my 66 years back at ya. I think it may be TB that has a let down tonight. They had a hell of a road trip but have been gone for over 10 days and flew back late yesterday aft getting into TB probably pretty late. Lots of Daddy-do's, Honey-do's and other distractions today plus they will be at the park in about 3 hours. I like playing these games and especially at +160 or so. KC is 3-0 this season against TB but that was in June and I can't even remember July. They are also 12-3 when +150 to +175. Now after saying all this, I hope you win as you will have a hell of lot more people on your side than I will and I like it when the majority beats up on the books. BOL I sure hope you don't take this as any negative type of drivel. It is just an old man's thoughts, period. You can also see that I have been around but just don't say much.

With that being said, my damn White Sox can't beat the fuckin roles for the life of them!!! I hope the damn Royals don't kill our chances from making the post-season.

GOOD LUCK TODAY FRED!

ofred · Aug 20, 2012

odee22 said:
Just wanted to add my accolades to the rest of your followers. I just started watching your analysis and selections and like your style. After saying that I thought I would throw some of my 66 years back at ya. I think it may be TB that has a let down tonight. They had a hell of a road trip but have been gone for over 10 days and flew back late yesterday aft getting into TB probably pretty late. Lots of Daddy-do's, Honey-do's and other distractions today plus they will be at the park in about 3 hours. I like playing these games and especially at +160 or so. KC is 3-0 this season against TB but that was in June and I can't even remember July. They are also 12-3 when +150 to +175. Now after saying all this, I hope you win as you will have a hell of lot more people on your side than I will and I like it when the majority beats up on the books. BOL I sure hope you don't take this as any negative type of drivel. It is just an old man's thoughts, period. You can also see that I have been around but just don't say much.

Your comments are appreciated. The more info I get the more I learn about how to do this. I hadn't thought about that angle of the home team having a letdown after a long road trip. I know in football that sometimes home teams play worse because of all the distractions being around family and friends and local media. Feel free to chip in anytime. I guess I like Tampa mostly because of just how easily picked apart some very good Angel pitchers.

varkeyboy · Aug 20, 2012

Do you play CFB/NFL?

Vituperate · Aug 20, 2012

o fred said:
Your comments are appreciated. The more info I get the more I learn about how to do this. I hadn't thought about that angle of the home team having a letdown after a long road trip. I know in football that sometimes home teams play worse because of all the distractions being around family and friends and local media. Feel free to chip in anytime. I guess I like Tampa mostly because of just how easily picked apart some very good Angel pitchers.

You also see this first game back phenomena in pro basketball right after a road trip...especially with 0 or 1 nights rest.

odee22 · Aug 21, 2012

Just a little follow-up to show there is some merit to the road trip going home theory. There were 7 teams yesterday that fell into that area. I played them all as I usually do. They went 3-4 for the night but came out almost exactly even and maybe made a buck or two. The winners were Colorado, Miami, and SF. The losers were Cinncy, Baltimore, Yanks and of course KC. I will be on the losers of the games yesterday today as some times it takes those yo-yo's time to figure out where they are. Am glad you guys all got W's with TB. GLTA tonight. I haven't looked but there might be an extra game in there someplace also.