The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 20, 2012 - YTD: 286-266-31 (800+ words on Duensing vs McCarthy)

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 286-266-31, -$1,528 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Funny how things can change so quickly. Heading into Monday only a week ago, I was on a 26-9-2 run, arguably the hottest lengthy run enjoyed by anyone on these forums, among most other places. Since then, I’ve been about .500, although I did cap off this average week witha fairly strong weekend to give me some momentum heading into tonight’s slate. And as I examined this 12-game schedule very closely, just as I always do literally every single day and night with my same routine, I was delighted to find some promising over/unders…


Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics (Best Bet)
Brian Duensing vs Brandon McCarthy
UNDER 7.5

Ah, was hoping this one would shift at some point today from its opening line of 7.5 to 8, but alas, it did not happen. Even so, I still feel pretty comfortable with where the number is currently at. For one, we have a very nice pitcher to build a potential under victory around, that being the great Brandon McCarthy, who has been, well, great all year. After all, when your ERA is at a miniscule 2.69, and your WHIP registers in at 1.19, it means you’re doing pretty much everything you need to do to be a successful starting pitcher at the highest level, something McCarthy was also doing last year in his breakout 2011 (Which, as a Rangers fan, I’ve been waiting for from him for YEARS). Of course, it’s not that simple, as McCarthy recently had an extended stay on the disabled list, and with most pitchers, there’s always that concern that they won’t be the same upon their return, at least right away. Well, luckily in this case, it appears the tall 6-foot-7 right-hander has already picked up where he left off, as in his three starts since coming back, he’s allowed just five earned runs in his 20 innings spanning those three assignments. Best of all, based on some quotes he said, McCarthy isn’t even happy with the [solid] way he’s been pitching as of late (The Athletics have lost his last two starts, despite his quality pitching), meaning that mentally, he’s apparently not content at all, which is a very good thing. The feeling of being content is such an underrated element when it comes to starting pitching - that’s the main reason why pitchers who go on long, dominant runs abruptly see their aforementioned runs cut short, because mentally, they don’t have that same sense of urgency, as they’re just not as mentally focused. It’s why top pitchers extend their runs longer than most (Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, etc.) because they don’t take starts for granted and continue along with that same mindset that got them to their success in the first place. Thus, since we know Brandon McCarthy isn’t content at all, despite his fine pitching since his return, it means he isn’t taking anystarts at the moment for granted, and will put everything he has into this specific one. That’s a very good factor to have on our side tonight. In addition, McCarthy has retained his velocity, which is also important, as he owns a 13:2 K:BB ratio in his three post-DL starts.

Like in most pitching matchups, there’s always a clear inferior starting pitcher set to take the rubber for the other team, and in this case, it’s Brian Duensing. It’s understandable to be a little cautious when taking an under that involves this Twins’ southpaw; I mean, he’s 1-6 in eight starts this year with a 6.34 ERA. But, the fact is that Duensing is better than those gaudy numbers, as he showed us for much of last year (And in portions of 2010 when he was starting a bit) when he got to start on a regular basis. And for the most part, it’s really only two innings where he struggles. In fact, Duensing owns a disgusting 9.56 ERA in the opening two frames of his starts, while possessing a much cleaner 3.47 ERA in the innings after that. Why do I point that out? Well it’s a significant trait about Duensing that is quite unusual, and it’s so rare that it just can’t continue much longer. Just about every starting pitcher thrives more in the beginning of their starts, due to hitters seeing their stuff for the first time on that very day or night, before gradually becoming less effective because opposing lineups pick up on their tendencies and how their stuff is performing. In the case of Brian Duensing, it’s the complete opposite, which should bode well for him eventually because once he gets past those first two innings successfully, he’ll be on cruise control, owning an arsenal that has proven capable of controlling offenses over long periods of time, since he already has the track record of producing strong efforts after the second inning. The bottom line is that the left-hander is much better than his 6.34 ERA as a starter, and that number has to come down sooner than later, most likely beginning with tonight. At the very least, he’s facing a club that is anchored towards the bottom hitting against lefties, and in a pitcher’s park like The Oakland Coliseum, Duensing just might give us his best effort to date. As long as McCarthy does his thing, we may not even need that much of an excellent outing from the Nebraska product - but we’ll gladly take it.


Other 8/20 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Alex White vs RA Dickey OVER 7 - $30 for $25
Will Smith vs Jeremy Hellickson UNDER 8 - $17 for $15 (Can’t believe I’m taking a Will Smith under, but let's see how far he's come)


Also Recommend, and MAY Take:
Justin Germano vs Mark Rogers OVER 9
Mark Buehrle vs Joe Saunders OVER 9
Ubaldo Jimenez vs Kevin Millwood OVER 7.5
Madison Bumgarner vs Clayton Kershaw UNDER 6


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 

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Any lean on NYY/CHW total cat? Likin the over..Garcia has been pitching well but will always be a rag in my mind and is due to regress. Floyd has been bad and doesnt usually fare well against yanks.
 
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Any lean on NYY/CHW total cat? Likin the over..Garcia has been pitching well but will always be a rag in my mind and is due to regress. Floyd has been bad and doesnt usually fare well against yanks.

Was leaning towards the over but wouldn't take it at 9.5, with a high possibility being 5-4/6-3, although I mainly envisioned it going the way of 6-4/7-4. Garcia has usually been good throughout his career but I've never really been a fan of Gavin Floyd since his days being a top prospect in Philly years ago
 
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Okay, final amount for my best bet is going to be:

Duensing vs McCarthy UNDER 7.5 - $80 for $70

And remember, I also recommend:
Jimenez vs Millwood OVER 7.5
Wilson vs Volquez UNDER 7.5 (I'd lean on Volquez re-turning his recent bad string around. And the Padres are terrible against lefties so maybe Wilson has a solid first start)
 
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And I'd recommend Bumgarner vs Kershaw UNDER 6, but that's too low for my liking to make a play on it.
 

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Like the Twins tonight, think you are totally correct about their pitcher. GL tonight!!!!
 
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Like the Twins tonight, think you are totally correct about their pitcher. GL tonight!!!!

GL to you as well skyla! As I told you before, glad you stuck around with baseball, even if it's only part-time. Let's see some vintage Brian Duensing tonight
 
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Looks like I'm going to go a perfect 5-0 on my games recommended (Not to mention my commentary on the over of Garcia vs Floyd so it'd be 6-0)... and 1-2 on the games I bet on. Typical bullshit.

And the frustrating trend of winning over 60-percent of my games recommended continues...
 

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