2012 MLB O/U Record: 288-269-32, -$1,616 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the season, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously.I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, it’s honestly the point of the year that I was dreading more than ANYTHING concerning this 2012 baseball season, that being the point where I’m on the verge of matching last year’s loss total… in late-August. With 269 losses in this 2012 campaign, I’m only one more defeat away from this embarrassing feat, although in my defense, I’m well ahead of last year’s pace in terms of games taken (Heading into August 22 last year, I was 290-220-32, +$448… weird that I had the same number of pushes. But that’s almost 50 more games ahead of pace!). It’s quite a humbling feeling, actually, as I genuinely expected to surpass what I did last year, and certainly thought I’d be up for the year money-wise no matter what, but hey, I’m just a 26-year old guy with his Journalism degree who loves baseball more than anything and who is still relatively new to this compared to most of you (Started in 2009 with my dear MLB Over/Unders, for those that don’t know. 2011 was my first season doing this literally every single day, just as I have done every day in 2012), so perhaps it’s merely a crash back down to earth for me that maybe sends me back in the right direction. After all, I’ve enjoyed a good, profitable August, and with severely depressing loss No. 270 looming as close as ever, maybe that will up my sense of urgency, as I seek to avoid it occurring on this potential doomsday Wednesday…
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays - $45 for $35
Luis Mendoza vs James Shields
UNDER 7/7.5 ($11 for $10 on U7, $34 for $25 on U7.5)
I have some good news and some bad news concerning this opening bout to today’s schedule: I feel really good about the under, or in other words, taking this under didn’t feel forced at all, which is always an excellent element to a bet. The bad news? I would feel much, much better if the line was 8, which is actually what I was expecting before I saw the line. Alas, it is what it is and we’ll have to settle with the listed total being where it’s at, and we can still be successful. These are two pitchers that I’ve been following for a long time now, even before I got into gambling, and believe it or not, as I’ve mentioned before, I’ve been on the Luis Mendoza bandwagon ever since he was a rookie in the 2007/2008-ish era with the Rangers (I am a Ranger fan, remember) as he was just trying to master his craft. He was far from accomplishing that, getting knocked around most of the time, before ultimately disappearing for a few years (Although he did make a handful of relief appearances in the ensuing couple of years). Eventually, he randomly re-appeared at the end of last year with these same Royals, who gave him another crack at being a Major League starter, and in his two 2011 starts, he was actually pretty good, allowing just two earned runs in almost 15 innings, and going at least seven innings in each outing, which was an absolute rarity given his first stint as a starter. In any case, he earned the right to continue with his audition into 2012, and through 17 starts, Mendoza has surprisingly continued to hang in there. For the season, he’s got perfectly respectable numbers to go along with his fine 7-8 record: 4.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 73:45 K:BB ratio in 120 innings. The Royals’ right-hander has been especially stingy in August, posting a 0.98 WHIP and .220 opposing batting average, walking only five in 28 innings, and going 3-1 as a result. Another item to like about his potential outcome here is that he actually pitches better on the road (3.94 ERA) than at home (4.57 ERA). His split stats indicate he’s better in night games, but I read some quotes from him enteringthis specific start and he even mentioned that pitching in a dome like The Trop will “feel like a night game” so that’s a nice little thing to consider as well, since the stats show he’s not as good in daytime games. Either way, just like most of his 2012 performance, I think he can hang in there, and that's probably all we'll need him to do.
And then there’s the much more reliablepitcher to discuss, that being the interesting James Shields, who, after somewhat of a rocky stretch not too long ago, has really settled in and started looking more like his vintage self again. At one point in July, Shields possessed an ERA above 4.50, which is uncharacteristic of him. But ever since, Big Games James has regained his composure, even throwing his first complete shutout along the way, which has always been a huge strength of his game - durability and being able to eat up innings. Shields’ ERA now sits comfortably at 4.03 after an August that has seen him record three starts thus far in which he has allowed three runs or less in all of them (Two of those three being two runs or less). In addition, the Tampa Bay hurler has regained his strikeout touch, something that has propelled him to great success over the years, punching out an impressive 47 batters over his past six starts, an impressive average of about 8 Ks/start over the past month. With 161 strikeouts in 167 innings, it’s clear that Shields is still one of the premier strikeout pitchers in the game, and considering the Royals strike out less than any other team in baseball, we’re really going to need the former ace to be at the top of his game, which is exactly where he’s been in these past four weeks. Historically, he’s always been a better pitcher at home and during the day throughout his career (Although those split stats have not been as glaring in 2012), so let’s hope he can keep up his extensive string of terrific pitching. I really hope this game doesn’t end up 5-3 or 6-2, but my bet would be for much more if the line was an even 8. However, we can still do this at 7/7.5.
Other 8/22 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jacob Turner vs Tyler Skaggs UNDER 10 - $16 for $13
Just a small bet, since it’s two rookies going at it with a high line a distinct hitter's park, but it is two prized rookies. Jacob Turner has had some good starts out of his handful with the Tigers, while this kid Tyler Skaggs supposedly has a lot of potential, so I’ll give him a shot in an under here in his first time out. Yes, it’s always a dangerous proposition taking an under in Arizona, but these are two kids who have displayed tremendous, tremendous talent up to this point in their minor-league careers, so even if it only translates well for one of them today, we still have a chance at winning with the line being as high as it is. It’s a fine small wager.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, it’s honestly the point of the year that I was dreading more than ANYTHING concerning this 2012 baseball season, that being the point where I’m on the verge of matching last year’s loss total… in late-August. With 269 losses in this 2012 campaign, I’m only one more defeat away from this embarrassing feat, although in my defense, I’m well ahead of last year’s pace in terms of games taken (Heading into August 22 last year, I was 290-220-32, +$448… weird that I had the same number of pushes. But that’s almost 50 more games ahead of pace!). It’s quite a humbling feeling, actually, as I genuinely expected to surpass what I did last year, and certainly thought I’d be up for the year money-wise no matter what, but hey, I’m just a 26-year old guy with his Journalism degree who loves baseball more than anything and who is still relatively new to this compared to most of you (Started in 2009 with my dear MLB Over/Unders, for those that don’t know. 2011 was my first season doing this literally every single day, just as I have done every day in 2012), so perhaps it’s merely a crash back down to earth for me that maybe sends me back in the right direction. After all, I’ve enjoyed a good, profitable August, and with severely depressing loss No. 270 looming as close as ever, maybe that will up my sense of urgency, as I seek to avoid it occurring on this potential doomsday Wednesday…
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays - $45 for $35
Luis Mendoza vs James Shields
UNDER 7/7.5 ($11 for $10 on U7, $34 for $25 on U7.5)
I have some good news and some bad news concerning this opening bout to today’s schedule: I feel really good about the under, or in other words, taking this under didn’t feel forced at all, which is always an excellent element to a bet. The bad news? I would feel much, much better if the line was 8, which is actually what I was expecting before I saw the line. Alas, it is what it is and we’ll have to settle with the listed total being where it’s at, and we can still be successful. These are two pitchers that I’ve been following for a long time now, even before I got into gambling, and believe it or not, as I’ve mentioned before, I’ve been on the Luis Mendoza bandwagon ever since he was a rookie in the 2007/2008-ish era with the Rangers (I am a Ranger fan, remember) as he was just trying to master his craft. He was far from accomplishing that, getting knocked around most of the time, before ultimately disappearing for a few years (Although he did make a handful of relief appearances in the ensuing couple of years). Eventually, he randomly re-appeared at the end of last year with these same Royals, who gave him another crack at being a Major League starter, and in his two 2011 starts, he was actually pretty good, allowing just two earned runs in almost 15 innings, and going at least seven innings in each outing, which was an absolute rarity given his first stint as a starter. In any case, he earned the right to continue with his audition into 2012, and through 17 starts, Mendoza has surprisingly continued to hang in there. For the season, he’s got perfectly respectable numbers to go along with his fine 7-8 record: 4.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 73:45 K:BB ratio in 120 innings. The Royals’ right-hander has been especially stingy in August, posting a 0.98 WHIP and .220 opposing batting average, walking only five in 28 innings, and going 3-1 as a result. Another item to like about his potential outcome here is that he actually pitches better on the road (3.94 ERA) than at home (4.57 ERA). His split stats indicate he’s better in night games, but I read some quotes from him enteringthis specific start and he even mentioned that pitching in a dome like The Trop will “feel like a night game” so that’s a nice little thing to consider as well, since the stats show he’s not as good in daytime games. Either way, just like most of his 2012 performance, I think he can hang in there, and that's probably all we'll need him to do.
And then there’s the much more reliablepitcher to discuss, that being the interesting James Shields, who, after somewhat of a rocky stretch not too long ago, has really settled in and started looking more like his vintage self again. At one point in July, Shields possessed an ERA above 4.50, which is uncharacteristic of him. But ever since, Big Games James has regained his composure, even throwing his first complete shutout along the way, which has always been a huge strength of his game - durability and being able to eat up innings. Shields’ ERA now sits comfortably at 4.03 after an August that has seen him record three starts thus far in which he has allowed three runs or less in all of them (Two of those three being two runs or less). In addition, the Tampa Bay hurler has regained his strikeout touch, something that has propelled him to great success over the years, punching out an impressive 47 batters over his past six starts, an impressive average of about 8 Ks/start over the past month. With 161 strikeouts in 167 innings, it’s clear that Shields is still one of the premier strikeout pitchers in the game, and considering the Royals strike out less than any other team in baseball, we’re really going to need the former ace to be at the top of his game, which is exactly where he’s been in these past four weeks. Historically, he’s always been a better pitcher at home and during the day throughout his career (Although those split stats have not been as glaring in 2012), so let’s hope he can keep up his extensive string of terrific pitching. I really hope this game doesn’t end up 5-3 or 6-2, but my bet would be for much more if the line was an even 8. However, we can still do this at 7/7.5.
Other 8/22 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jacob Turner vs Tyler Skaggs UNDER 10 - $16 for $13
Just a small bet, since it’s two rookies going at it with a high line a distinct hitter's park, but it is two prized rookies. Jacob Turner has had some good starts out of his handful with the Tigers, while this kid Tyler Skaggs supposedly has a lot of potential, so I’ll give him a shot in an under here in his first time out. Yes, it’s always a dangerous proposition taking an under in Arizona, but these are two kids who have displayed tremendous, tremendous talent up to this point in their minor-league careers, so even if it only translates well for one of them today, we still have a chance at winning with the line being as high as it is. It’s a fine small wager.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
