The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 24, 2012 - YTD: 293-271-33

2012 MLB O/U Record: 293-271-33, -$1,534 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Keeping that hot August going, as yesterday’s 2-1-1 performance, including a victorious best bet, pushed me to 40-27-6 for the month, which is a nifty winning percentage of 59.7%, and if you count the pushes, that’s a win-or-tie percentage of 63%. Not bad. The key, of course, is to not get caught up in whatever run you may be on, which is why I simply take it one day at a time, which is a strategy everyone should utilize, rather than dwelling on past or future contests, as that could take you out of rhythm. That said, let’s see what’s on the slate for Friday…


Drew Pomeranz vs Jeff Samardzija UNDER 10 - $19 for $15
Just a small over/under for the minimum to kick off my Friday, as this game stuck out to me when I first saw it, with the hope that the line would be 10, and I was nicely granted that this morning in the opening line. Yes, the wind is blowing out, which is why the line is where it’s at, but it’s not so significant enough that it more-than-likely could single-handedly ruin this under. It’s also important to note that these aren’t the same Rockies we were getting accustomed to again of putting up a boatloadof runs every single night, as a result of their many injuries, and luckily for us, they’re set to square off with a good pitcher to boot. While Jeff Samardzija has fallen off from his first two really hot months, the fact remains that he’s still put up some very solid numbers overall (8-11, 4.17 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 146 Ksin 144 IP), and today we’re catching him at home, where he actually pitches better (3.36 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) than on the road (4.82 ERA, 1.36 WHIP). The only drawback is that he’s been far better at night than during the day, but I believe that’s something that will level off a bit more in time. Drew Pomeranz is the wildcard for this under, and I’ve written about him before being underrated, although that’s kind of hard to see when Colorado inexplicably still keeps that ridiculously moronic 70-85 pitch-limit on their starters, which, oh by the way, hasn’t worked, as their pitching staff has an ERA north of 6 since instituting this policy. Yikes. But Pomeranz has been one of the bright spots for an otherwise disastrous rotation, as despite his 1-7 record (I had the under in that lone victory of his in which he masterful on the road against the Nationals), he’s recorded an acceptable 4.87 ERA, while maintaining a fairly high strikeout rate (56 Ks in 64 IP). That’s a key element, as both guys are fine strikeout pitchers, and that’s a little advantage we gain in these games where wind can become a factor, as no matter what potential rally might be caused by the wind, it could be just as neutralized by each starter’s ability to punch-out opposing batters and keep the runners where they are. I wouldn’t take this under if the line was any lower, so at 10, it’s a fine afternoon bet.


**Will Definitely Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**

Good start to the day, even if it was a small bet, but it means I'm still in my month-long rhythm. I'll have the rest of my card up soon with significantly bigger bets so be on the look out for that before 7 o'clock (EST).

Nice early hit cat. GL tonite

Here's my 7 o'clock action...

NOTE: My best bet tonight is going to be - what else? - Eric Stults vs Patrick Corbin UNDER 9.5, two guys I've obviously been excellent with this year, and I'll have a in-depth write-up on that matchup a bit later. In the meantime, decide if you have any interest on these two 7 o'clock games, which I feel pretty good about.


Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros - Price TBD
Mike Fiers vs Wandy Rodriguez
UNDER 7.5 [Waiting till gametime to see if it goes to 8]

I was hoping the line for this game would be 8, rather than 7.5, considering how both pitchers have been struggling over the past couple of weeks. Mike Fiers, for instance, hasn’t been his normal terrific self that we’ve grown so accustomed to seeing on a regular basis this season, as he’s surrendered a disgusting 12 runs in his past two starts combined. To put that into perspective, he allowed 11 runs in his prior TEN starts. Yes, you read that right, so let me re-emphasize that because of how odd it is: Mike Fiers, who was at one point a surefire NL Rookie of the Year candidate, has given up more runs in his past two starts than he has over the ten starts preceding the aforementioned two-game stretch. Only in baseball does stuff like that happen. While it’s true Fiers has fallen off considerably from his extensive hot run, he does acknowledge how he’s been struggling and based on some quotes he said, he stresses how important it is for him to pitch well in his next start, that being tonight. Is a re-focused Mike Fiers the key for him to become dominant again? I’d lean towards yes, and he has a chance to do that against a somewhat reeling Pirates offense.

Meanwhile, I haven’t really been able to pinpoint why Wandy Rodriguez has been less effective since coming over to Pittsburgh. Maybe it’s because he hasn’t actually pitched for a contender in awhile(Although the 2009 Astros were gunning for first place in late-July/early-August, I remember)? Whatever the case, he’s obviously too good a pitcher to be suddenly struggling more often than not, and hey, he did finally pick up his first Pirates win in his last appearance, which was an extremely rare relief stint for him in the Pirates’ epic 19-inning affair from Sunday. I’m waiting till gametime to see if this goes to 8, since the extra juice has been on over 7.5 all day, but even if it doesn’t I’ll still bite on the under with where it’s at.


CC Sabathia vs Corey Kluber OVER 9 - $33for $30
There really isn’t a need for analysis concerning this over. In fact, this is a bet that hinges on one main sentiment that should ring true no matter what: The Yankees’ prestigious and stacked offense should ROCK young Corey Kluber. I don’t understand how there could be any doubts, or even any logical reasoning contributing to a potential quality start from Kluber. Why? Because it’s just not possible. If you’ve watched him pitch thus far in his brief young career, it would appear there is just very little hope, at least at this point in time and the for the foreseeable future, for the Indians’ young right-hander to have some kind of bright career. Yes, there is the unique tendency to the Yankee offense in which they sometimes inexplicably struggle against consensus-crappy pitchers over the years (Sean O’Sullivan, Carlos Carrasco, Dylan Axelrod, among many others. Those are just off the top of my head), but Corey Kluber just may very well be a notch below even those bottom-feeders. The only thing I’m worried about is losing this over by a final score of 7-1/8-0, as after all, this is CC Sabathia we’re talking about, and even though he’s coming back from injury, he’s still set to pitch in the place he called home for several years, not to mention he’s about to match up against a team that has been mired in a complete tailspin over the past few weeks. The variable is an interesting one, as Sabathia rarely gets hurt, and thus, you rarely get to see how he reacts in his first start coming off a DL stint, but it’s not like the Indians have no talent in their lineup so as long as they get a couple of runs, we should be good. Even if he pitches a shutout, it’s also very possible that the Yankees go for nine or ten runs, if not more, which is a rare vibe to have going into a ballgame. But when it happens, you ride it. In addition, if you're into moneylines and runlines, I HIGHLY recommend taking the Yankees, even though that's not my department, but just think of it this way: There is absolutely no way a scrub like Corey Kluber will be able to tell his grandkids one day that he beat CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees. Will he even pitch beyond this year? If you have to wonder about that concerning a certain pitcher, there's no way they're beating the storied Yankees and their ace. No way.

Obviously, my analysis pertaining to the Fiers vs Rodriguez under should read "Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates." Even though they're not my favorite team, I'm so dedicated to the lowly Astros that my mind likes to ignore that they actually traded him

Also forgot, from the 7 o'clock portion of my card...

Jarrod Parker vs Matt Moore UNDER 7 - $30 for $25
Just as I continued to stress this entire season, there was no question Matt Moore would ultimately burst out into the true ace-caliber pitcher he's capable of being. Even when he was struggling through the first couple of months, which saw him surprisingly post an ERA above 5, I continually stressed that he was INEVITABLY (As in, "guarantee," which I was 100-percent right with) going to break out, and that he has indeed. In fact, you could argue that he's been the hottest pitcher in the entire American League since the all-star break (5-1, 1.64 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 42 Ks in 44 IP of work in the second half). Jarrod Parker has gone in the opposite direction since his own hot start, but he didn't allow a run in his last start at home against Cleveland on Sunday, leading me to believe that he's back on track. Even if he doesn't pump out a dominant start, which he contributed a lot of early on, he still looks poised to hang in there against Moore, as it was improved mechanics I read about BEFORE his last start that probably led him to getting back on the wagon. Therefore, if this is close to the normal Jarrod Parker, then I expect him to go pitch-for-pitch with the opposing Rays' southpaw.

Doesn't look like Vegas is budging on Fiers vs Rodriguez under so I'll be content with a final amount of $35 for $35 on the under of 7.5.

Well an unfortunate turn of events as far as my 7 o'clock games are concerned, as Fiers vs Rodriguez was 2-2 in the 7th, meaning I was in perfect position to secure that under 7.5, until the Pirates' "terrific" back-end of the bullpen blew it, as a two-out rally with one man on somehow turned into a based-loaded double for Aramis Ramirez off one of the better late-inning relievers in baseball this year, Jared Hughes. Whatever. And I don't care what the score of Kluber vs Sabathia ends up, taking the over was 100-percent the right bet to make, as whoever took the under (Why, exactly? What is the logic there?) obviously took a foolish risk in making such a bet with COREY KLUBER involved going up against the mighty Yankees' offense.

Anyway, my best bet of the evening...


San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Best Bet) - $81 for $70
Eric Stults vs Patrick Corbin
UNDER 9.5

If you're a regular reader of my daily column, you know how I've been completely on the ball as far as Eric Stults, even predicting his excellent run this year BEFORE his very first start, which oh by the way, was his first start since 2009. In my article that day, I wrote extensively how ridiculous it was that he went TWO FULL YEARS without making a start, despite standing out with the Dodgers a bit in that '09 season, and ever since, the rest has been history. Stults has been nothing short of terrific, compiling a 3-2 record with a 3.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, he's coming off his worst start of the year, in which he got hit around a bit by the Giants on Saturday, but that's not necessarily a bad thing, as at some point, he had to have some type of off outing, so maybe this sets in as a realization that Stults has to retain his sense of urgency that enabled him to go on such a dazzling run early on. He's not an overpowering hurler, as it's his precision and smarts that contributes to his success, which I believe will show up here.

Surprisingly, it's actually the other starter in this matchup that I'm most amped about, that being Diamondbacks' young lefty Patrick Corbin, who I've written about a few times over the past few weeks as growing on me. After all, look at what he's done over his past several starts. Aside from his effort on Saturday in Houston, in which he yielded four runs (I won the over of that game), had made four straight starts allowing two runs or less, a very strong sign that his maturity and development has sped up, as he seeks to become someone who sticks permanently at the Major League level at this early point in his career. The thing that has struck me most about Corbin is his gradual increased ability at punching opposing batters out, recording at least five Ks in each of his past four starts, which is absolutely something he was not doing earlier in the year in his first stint with the team. Now that he owns a couple of proven put-away pitches, that means Corbin has attained confidence, which should lead him to continue rolling. Trust me, the name "Patrick Corbin" is a name you'll hear a lot more in a much more significant capacity as this season winds down, as he's one of the more key pitchers in the National League that can severely help his team's postseason push.

Alright, nice best bet victory to salvage my evening and keep my confidence up. I've said it several times before and I'll say it again: There is not one person in the country who knows Eric Stults better than I do, including the 30 GMs who were responsible for not giving him a continued shot at starting in 2010 and 2011. What an outstanding performance from him tonight - one of the best 7-inning starts by a pitcher this entire season, without question.